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エンロン問題に見る財務分析の限界 「愛知工業大学」経営情報科学部 「岡崎一浩」

エンロン問題に見る財務分析の限界 「愛知工業大学」経営情報科学部 「岡崎一浩」. 経営姿勢： 二流会社が Greenmail から生き残るために、 Drexel Burnham Lambert のマイケル・ミルケンを顧問にしたジャンク債のノーハウを取得した。. 粉飾決算の動機. 粉飾決算の動機 財務 高い株価　　安い資金調達コスト 経営 Ｍ＆Ａコスト 報酬・労務 ストック・オプション 会計費用 自社株を原資とする年金コストの減少 監査 分析的手法による低リスク判定. 倒産原因： 株価下落による社債条件による即時 償還義務 の発生. 2000 年年次報告書.

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エンロン問題に見る財務分析の限界 「愛知工業大学」経営情報科学部 「岡崎一浩」

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  1. エンロン問題に見る財務分析の限界 「愛知工業大学」経営情報科学部 「岡崎一浩」

  2. 経営姿勢：二流会社がGreenmailから生き残るために、 Drexel BurnhamLambertのマイケル・ミルケンを顧問にしたジャンク債のノーハウを取得した。 粉飾決算の動機 • 粉飾決算の動機 • 財務 高い株価　　安い資金調達コスト • 経営 Ｍ＆Ａコスト • 報酬・労務 ストック・オプション • 会計費用 自社株を原資とする年金コストの減少 • 監査 分析的手法による低リスク判定 倒産原因：株価下落による社債条件による即時償還義務の発生

  3. 2000年年次報告書 M&A の効率 • FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS • (Unaudited: in millions, except per share data) 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 • Revenues $100,789$ 40,112 $ 31,260 $20,273 $13,289 • Net income: • Operating results $ 1,266957 698 515 493 • Items impacting comparability (287)(64) 5 (410) 91 • Total $ 979893 703 105 584 • Earnings per diluted common share: • Operating results $ 1.471.18 1.00 0.87 0.91 • Items impacting comparability (0.35)(0.08) 0.01 (0.71) 0.17 • Total $ 1.121.10 1.01 0.16 1.08 • Dividends paid per common share $ 0.500. 50 0.48 0.46 0.43 • Total assets $ 65,50333,381 29,350 22,552 16,137 • Cash from operating activities • (excluding working capital) $ 3,0102,228 1,873 276 742 • Capital expenditures and equity investments $ 3,3143,085 3,564 2,092 1,483 • NYSE price range • High $ 90 9/1644 7/8 29 3/8 22 9/16 23 3/4 • Low 41 3/828 3/4 19 1/16 17 1/2 17 5/16 • Close December 31 83 1/844 3/8 28 17/32 20 25/32 21 9/16 収入・売上高 営業利益 純利益 1株当り営業利益 総資産 $50 株価 $25 株価は、ＤＣＦ法ではなく宝くじ購入と同じ期待で買われた。 $0

  4. 損益＆キャッシュフロー • FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS • (Unaudited: in millions, except per share data) 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 • Revenues $100,789$ 40,112 $ 31,260 $20,273 $13,289 • Net income: • Operating results $ 1,266957 698 515 493 • Items impacting comparability (287)(64) 5 (410) 91 • Total $ 979893 703 105 584 • Earnings per diluted common share: • Operating results $ 1.471.18 1.00 0.87 0.91 • Items impacting comparability (0.35)(0.08) 0.01 (0.71) 0.17 • Total $ 1.121.10 1.01 0.16 1.08 • Dividends paid per common share $ 0.500. 50 0.48 0.46 0.43 • Total assets $ 65,50333,381 29,350 22,552 16,137 • Cash from operating activities • (excluding working capital) $ 3,0102,228 1,873 276 742 • Capital expenditures and equity investments $ 3,3143,085 3,564 2,092 1,483 • NYSE price range • High $ 90 9/1644 7/8 29 3/8 22 9/16 23 3/4 • Low 41 3/828 3/4 19 1/16 17 1/2 17 5/16 • Close December 31 83 1/844 3/8 28 17/32 20 25/32 21 9/16

  5. 結論　　監査リスクは分析的手法からは潜在的に低くない。結論　　監査リスクは分析的手法からは潜在的に低くない。 損益＆キャッシュフロー 株主 有利子負債 Cash 事業 • FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS • (Unaudited: in millions, except per share data) 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 • Revenues $100,789$ 40,112 $ 31,260 $20,273 $13,289 • Net income: • Operating results $ 1,266957 698 515 493 • Items impacting comparability (287)(64) 5 (410) 91 • Total $ 979893 703 105 584 • Earnings per diluted common share: • Operating results $ 1.47 1.18 1.00 0.87 0.91 • Items impacting comparability (0.35) (0.08) 0.01 (0.71) 0.17 • Total $ 1.12 1.10 1.01 0.16 1.08 • Dividends paid per common share $ 0.50 0. 50 0.48 0.46 0.43 • Total assets $ 65,503 33,381 29,350 22,552 16,137 • Cash from operating activities • (excluding working capital) $ 3,0102,228 1,873 276 742 • Capital expenditures and equity investments $ 3,3143,085 3,564 2,092 1,483 経常利益率　　　　1.26% 2.39% 2.29% 2.54% 3.71% 損益は右肩上がりできわめて好調 ただし、利益率は連続低下 Free cash flow ($ 304) (857) (1,694) (1,818) (741) 財務活動 投資活動 営業活動 キャッシュフロー分析からは投資に無理が見える。

  6. 株価のバブル度 ＰＥＲ • FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS • (Unaudited: in millions, except per share data) 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 • Revenues $100,789$ 40,112 $ 31,260 $20,273 $13,289 • Net income: • Operating results $ 1,266957 698 515 493 • Items impacting comparability (287)(64) 5 (410) 91 • Total $ 979893 703 105 584 • Earnings per diluted common share: • Operating results $ 1.471.18 1.00 0.87 0.91 • Items impacting comparability (0.35)(0.08) 0.01 (0.71) 0.17 • Total $ 1.121.10 1.01 0.16 1.08 • Dividends paid per common share $ 0.500. 50 0.48 0.46 0.43 • Total assets $ 65,50333,381 29,350 22,552 16,137 • Cash from operating activities • (excluding working capital) $ 3,0102,228 1,873 276 742 • Capital expenditures and equity investments $ 3,3143,085 3,564 2,092 1,483 • NYSE price range • High $ 90 9/1644 7/8 29 3/8 22 9/16 23 3/4 • Low 41 3/828 3/4 19 1/16 17 1/2 17 5/16 • Close December 31 83 1/844 3/8 28 17/32 20 25/32 21 9/16

  7. 2000年年次報告書 結論　　米国のＰＥＲ水準としては、株価バブルと思われる。 株価のバブル度 ＰＥＲ • FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS • (Unaudited: in millions, except per share data) 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 • Revenues $100,789 $ 40,112 $ 31,260 $20,273 $13,289 • Net income: • Operating results $ 1,266 957 698 515 493 • Items impacting comparability (287) (64) 5 (410) 91 • Total $ 979 893 703 105 584 • Earnings per diluted common share: • Operating results $ 1.47 1.18 1.00 0.87 0.91 • Items impacting comparability (0.35)(0.08) 0.01 (0.71) 0.17 • Total $ 1.121.10 1.01 0.16 1.08 • Dividends paid per common share $ 0.50 0. 50 0.48 0.46 0.43 • Total assets $ 65,503 33,381 29,350 22,552 16,137 • Cash from operating activities • (excluding working capital) $ 3,010 2,228 1,873 276 742 • Capital expenditures and equity investments $ 3,314 3,085 3,564 2,092 1,483 • NYSE price range • High $ 90 9/1644 7/8 29 3/8 22 9/16 23 3/4 • Low 41 3/828 3/4 19 1/16 17 1/2 17 5/16 • Close December 31 83 1/8 44 3/8 28 17/32 20 25/32 21 9/16 PER 株価収益率 （倍） 56.5 37.7 28.2 23.8 23.6

  8. 資産の収益性 • FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS • (Unaudited: in millions, except per share data) 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 • Revenues $100,789$ 40,112 $ 31,260 $20,273 $13,289 • Net income: • Operating results $ 1,266957 698 515 493 • Items impacting comparability (287)(64) 5 (410) 91 • Total $ 979893 703 105 584 • Earnings per diluted common share: • Operating results $ 1.471.18 1.00 0.87 0.91 • Items impacting comparability (0.35)(0.08) 0.01 (0.71) 0.17 • Total $ 1.121.10 1.01 0.16 1.08 • Dividends paid per common share $ 0.500. 50 0.48 0.46 0.43 • Total assets $ 65,50333,381 29,350 22,552 16,137 • Cash from operating activities • (excluding working capital) $ 3,0102,228 1,873 276 742 • Capital expenditures and equity investments $ 3,3143,085 3,564 2,092 1,483 • NYSE price range • High $ 90 9/1644 7/8 29 3/8 22 9/16 23 3/4 • Low 41 3/828 3/4 19 1/16 17 1/2 17 5/16 • Close December 31 83 1/844 3/8 28 17/32 20 25/32 21 9/16

  9. 2000年年次報告書 結論　　ＲＯＡは低下しているので、経営効率が悪化している。 資産の収益性 • FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS • (Unaudited: in millions, except per share data) 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 • Revenues $100,789$ 40,112 $ 31,260 $20,273 $13,289 • Net income: • Operating results $ 1,266957 698 515 493 • Items impacting comparability (287)(64) 5 (410) 91 • Total $ 979893 703 105 584 • Earnings per diluted common share: • Operating results $ 1.47 1.18 1.00 0.87 0.91 • Items impacting comparability (0.35) (0.08) 0.01 (0.71) 0.17 • Total $ 1.12 1.10 1.01 0.16 1.08 • Dividends paid per common share $ 0.50 0. 50 0.48 0.46 0.43 • Total assets $ 65,50333,381 29,350 22,552 16,137 Asset turning ratio 1.54 1.20 1.07 0.90 0.82 Return on Assets (Net operating income by Assets) 1.93% 2.87% 2.38% 2.28% 3.06%

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