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Teflas’ Mumbai. December 18, 2010 * * * * *

Teflas’ Mumbai. December 18, 2010 * * * * * . Global Economy – Commodity and Currency Markets G. Chandrashekhar The Hindu Business Line. THE BIG PICTURE. Global commodity markets: huge volatility last five years; Growth concerns; Rabid financialisation; Agri markets somewhat insulated

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Teflas’ Mumbai. December 18, 2010 * * * * *

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  1. Teflas’Mumbai. December 18, 2010* * * * * Global Economy – Commodity and Currency Markets G. Chandrashekhar The Hindu Business Line

  2. THE BIG PICTURE • Global commodity markets: huge volatility last five years; Growth concerns; Rabid financialisation; • Agri markets somewhat insulated • Weather and trade & tariff policy changes created volatility • Rising demand contributed

  3. Major Market Drivers thro 2020 • Global economic growth; Rising population (in developing world, esp Asia); Rising incomes (esp in currently low per capita usage countries); • Urbanisation & changing food habits (middleclass in emerging economies); • Role of technology (infotech & biotech); • Farm policies including subsidies; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . and more . . .

  4. Major Market Drivers thro 2020 • Crude prices; Biofuel policies; • Land constraints; water shortage • Global warming /Climate change • Speculative capital • And of course, weather

  5. Emerging Trends • Developing countries to drive growth in production, trade and consumption; • In short-run (2-3 years) two-speed growth – weak and hesitant recovery with high unemployment in OECD; and strong growth in large developing countries

  6. Monetary Policy – recent changes • Diametrically opposite policy followed by Developed and Developing economies; • Monetary tightening in emerging countries and easy money, low interest rate policy in developed nations; • Currency market volatility; • Currency wars? • Asian impact

  7. Thank You • G. Chandrashekhar The Hindu Business LineKasturi Building, J.Tata Road Churchgate, Mumbai 400 020 Phn: 91-22-22885593 – 22021099 email: gchandra@thehindu.co.in

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