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WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

ACTIVITIES ON SHORT-RANGE FORECASTING METHODS OF FOG, VISIBILITY AND LOW CLOUDS IN EU COST ACTION 722 Silas Chr. Michaelides Meteorological Service, Nicosia, Cyprus. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005.

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WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

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  1. ACTIVITIES ON SHORT-RANGE FORECASTING METHODS OF FOG, VISIBILITY AND LOW CLOUDS IN EU COST ACTION 722Silas Chr. Michaelides Meteorological Service, Nicosia, Cyprus WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  2. Cost Action 722 is a consortium of scientists from twenty-two Institutions in fifteen countries, coordinating their national research on forecasting methods of fog, visibility and low cloud. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  3. Participating Institutions in Cost Action 722Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (Austria)National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (Bulgaria)Meteorological Service of Canada (Canada)Cyprus Meteorological Service (Cyprus)Danemarks Meteorologiske Institute (Denmark)Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI, Finland)Météo-France (France) WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  4. Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, Germany)University of Marburg (Germany)University of Bonn (Germany)Hungarian Meteorological Service (Hungary)Norwegian Meteorological Institute (Norway)Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (Poland)Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM, Spain) WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  5. Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut (SMHI - Sweden)Analysen & Konzepte (Switzerland)University of Basel (Switzerland)MeteoSwiss (Switzerland)University of Leeds (United Kingdom)University of Manchester, Institute of Science and Technology (United Kingdom)U.K. Met. Office (United Kingdom) WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  6. Official Web site: 137.248.191.94/cost/ WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  7. The main objective of the EU Cost Action 722 is:To develop advanced methods for very short-range forecasts of fog, visibility and low clouds, adapted to characteristic areas and to user requirements. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  8. This overall objective includes:the development of pre-processed methods of the necessary input data, the development of the appropriate forecast models and methods and the development of adaptable application software for the production of the forecasts. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  9. The duration of the Action is five years and the effort has been split into four Phases. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  10. The major tasks during the First Phase were a) to document the existing forecast techniques and ongoing projects in the field of forecasting fog, visibility and low clouds within European countries, and b) to investigate the needs by different groups of users, based upon the evaluation of questionnaires filled out by customers and forecasters in many European countries. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  11. The First Phase has been Completed and the results have been published WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  12. The second Phase (Research and Development) is in its final year of completion and the three broad research areas: WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  13. 1st)initial data acquisition, techniques and requirements, 2nd) initialization of models and testing of the microphysics of different models, 3rd) the development and testing of statistical methods. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  14. The aim of the Third Phase (Development and Application) is to ensure that the methods can be used at different Institutes. During the last Fourth Phase (Dissemination) the results and methods will be distributed. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  15. In the following, a brief review is made of some of the tasks undertaken under different research areas of the current second Phase in order to display the spectrum of the research efforts in Cost 722 WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  16. 1st Research Area: INITIAL DATAThe objective of this research area is to use satellite data and in-situ measurements for the derivation of a climatology of visibility, fog and low stratus and for a better understanding of relevant processes for the formation and dissipation of fog and low stratus. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  17. The two main activities under this research area are:The climatology of fog, andthe detection and determination of fog properties WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  18. Climatology of fog WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  19. Climatology of fog: Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM) The Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM), reports on the development of a conceptual model for fog forecasting in Central Spain. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  20. Climatology of fog: Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM)Through a systematic subjective mesoscale analysis, the coexistence of two mesoscale mechanisms in most of fog events has been shown: cold drainage winds converging at the bottom of the valleys and a warm advection of air from the Mediterranean or the Atlantic WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  21. Climatology of fog: Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM) Under these circumstances, nights with clear skies, katabatics winds are overflown by warm air. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  22. Climatology of fog: Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM) WV image HIRLAM 00+06 T and Wind 850 hPa WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005 Methodology for fog forecasting is based on a combination of Teledetection (using Meteosat channel 6, centered at 7.3 m),and Numerical Weather Pediction (single-column version of HIRLAM)

  23. Climatology of fog:Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) In the Finnish Meteorological Institute, work is in progress, regarding the development of climatological forecasting tools. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  24. Climatology of fog:Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) 30 years of SYNOP observations for selected stationsObservations should be classified in groups of typical low visibility situationsIt would help forecasters to learn the climatologies of new areas they are assigned to. It might even show new dependencies, not thought of before. Clustering algorithms can do this. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  25. Climatology of fog:Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) Clustering of fog “situations” WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  26. Climatology of fog:Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) Example:An advection fog cluster using NCEP data. Mean and the standard deviationof geopotential and temperature WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  27. Climatology of fog:Institute of Meteorology and Water Management of Poland (IMGW) The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management of Poland (IMGW) developed a climatology on small-scale advection for Warsaw and Krakow Airports based upon 30 years of synoptic data. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  28. Climatology of fog:Institute of Meteorology and Water Management of Poland (IMGW) WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005 Representation of a cluster of conditions favorable for fog formation

  29. Climatology of fog:Bulgarian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology The Bulgarian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology works on fog climatologyBy using multiple linear regression (data sequences with a length of 92 terms), statistical relationships between visibility and several predictors were established WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  30. Climatology of fog:Bulgarian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Several parameters have been examined: relative humidity, temperature, wind direction and speed, at four levels at Sofia station, 700, 850, 925hPa, and ground level together with SYNOP data for several stations in Bulgaria WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  31. Climatology of fog:Bulgarian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Encouraged by the results of this study, Aladin and HRM are employed to obtain visibility values in the beginning and in the end of the fog formation WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  32. Detection and determination of fog properties WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  33. Detection and determination of fog properties:Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) In the Finnish Meteorological Institute, tests were carried out with the wind profiler LAP3000 (Vaisala) at Rovaniemi Airport. This instrument showed a good performance during situations with fog and low stratus. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  34. Detection and determination of fog properties:Météo-France In Météo-France, work is progress to review the potentials and shortcomings of different LIDAR and SODAR instruments. Both methods are good for fog, however, LIDAR cannot penetrate dense fog and SODAR hardly detects thin fog layers. Heavy air traffic causes problems which limits the use at airports. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  35. Detection and determination of fog properties:University of Marburg, Germany At the University of Marburg, Germany, research is done on the retrieval of fog areas and properties from satellite imagery. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  36. Detection and determination of fog properties:University of Marburg, Germany Using parameterizations based on radiative transfer and microphysics, fog and low stratus can be separated with some degree of certainty. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  37. 2nd Research Area: MODELS The main activities under this research area are: the initialization of models,the investigation of microphysics,the development and testingof models WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  38. Initialization of models: University of Basle, Switzerland In University of Basle Switzerland, by using the NCEP (National Centers for Environment Prediction) model (1km), it was found that topography is important for forecasting fog and low clouds. First trials of ensemble forecasting are in progress by varying the initial conditions slightly. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  39. Initialization of models: University of Basle, Switzerland A fog and low stratus forecast system was developed for Zurich Unique airportin Switzerland. Fog prediction is done using an ensemble of 1D forecasts. Necessary initial conditions are obtained from variational data assimilation. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  40. Investigation of microphysics WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  41. Investigation of Microphysics : Finnish Meteorological Institute and Met. Service of Canada In order to improve the understanding of the microphysical processes within the clouds and to get a better understanding of the phenomenon “fog”, several measurement campaigns (field and aircraft) are planned for winter 2005/2006 (Finland, Toronto, New York Airport). These experiments will also serve to inter-compare ground-based fog property measurements with satellite retrievals. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  42. Development and testing of models Development and testing of models WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  43. Development and testing of models Physical processesinvolved in the formation of fog interact in a complex and highly non-linear manner.Such interactions are not resolved by operational mesoscale models.Therefore, the development of a 3-D fog forecasting model calls for a finer horizontal and vertical resolution. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  44. Development and testing of models For the development and testing of models in forecasting low visibilities and low cloud, several models are under examination by various Institutions within Cost 722. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  45. Development and testing of models: University of Bonn, Germany The University of Bonn works on the development of a nested 50km 3-D-version of the LM (Lokal modell of DWD) with a very fine vertical resolution near the surface, at 2, 6, 10 m from the ground. The parameterizations are taken from the parameterized fog microphysics model – PAFOG WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  46. Development and testing of models: Universities of Bonn, Germany and Basle, Switzerland NMM_PAFOG NMM-4 NMM_PAFOG PAFOG is also used in another modeling approach which involves the Universities of Bonn and Basle. In this approach, the NOAA/NCEP Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) is coupled with PAFOG. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  47. Development and testing of models:Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Austria The representation of low cloudiness (Stratus) with the Aladin model is studied in Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (Austria) by extending their system:Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  48. Development and testing of models:Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut (SMHI) The HIRLAM 1-D model (initialized with 3-D) is tested in the Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut (SMHI). WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  49. Development and testing of models:Météo-France A numerical forecast method integrating dedicated observations and the COBEL-ISBA high resolution numerical model has been developed in Météo-France. WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

  50. Experience with the modelling approach shows:Promising first resultsComputationally very efficient and feasible in todays operational frameworkHowever, more cases and ‘verification’ needed WSN05 – Toulouse 5-9 September, 2005

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