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Final Review

Final Review. Lecture 24 Loan Securitization – Market Risk Chap 26, Chap 17 -19, Chap 10. Disclaimer. You are responsible for all the material presented in class and in the book since the previous exam.

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Final Review

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  1. Final Review Lecture 24 Loan Securitization – Market Risk Chap 26, Chap 17 -19, Chap 10

  2. Disclaimer You are responsible for all the material presented in class and in the book since the previous exam. This is a review of some elements of that information. It is not a comprehensive review of all the information you will be responsible for on the Exam!

  3. Material to Review • Loan Securitization • Liquidity Risk • Liability and Liquidity Management • Depository Insurance • Market Risk

  4. Loan Securitization

  5. Loan Securitization Summary • Securitization Process • Vehicles: SPV, SIV, similarities/differences, ProcedureAdvantages & Disadvantages • Pass-Through Securities • What are they, how are they created, payments, ownership • Agencies • GNMA, FNMA, FHLMC – what do they do, how are they similar/different • Costs and benefits of securitization • Cash flows • Payments, value, pre-payment risk • Other Securitizations • CMOs, CDOs, RMBS

  6. Bank of America purchased 6000 mortgages with an average principal of $143,000 each. BoA intends to finance the purchase by raising deposits and want to maintain its current risk profile. Currently BoA has a Tier I risk-based capital ratio of 5.8%, The Federal Reserve requires 10% of deposits to be held in reserve, and the FDIC charges 27 bps annual premium to insure deposits. Find the total regulatory tax BoA is exposed to from these mortgages. If the risk weight on residential mortgages is 50%, they currently have a 20% default rate and pay an aggregate coupon of 4.3%. $119,950,020.67

  7. Deutsche Bank purchases a pool of 1000 mortgages with an average principal value of $323,500 each. The mortgage pool has an aggregate mortgage coupon rate of 4.3% and the average time to maturity is 30 years. Deutsche Bank sells the pool to an SPV who collects a 38bp annual servicing fee. GNMA Charges an 18bp annual fee to insure the pass-through security payments. • Find the aggregate monthly payment to GNMA bondholders assuming no pre-payment risk. • Find the value of the issue after 12 years have past if a similar pool of mortgages yields a 2.3% mortgage coupon $1,496,343.87

  8. How much should Carlyle Capital expect to get for the sale of a newly originated GNMA securitization with $703M of residential mortgage principal. The pool of mortgages has 30 years left to maturity. Currently, a 30-year Treasury note with face value of $1,000 sells for $98.23. A 30-year BBB rated corporate bond with $1,000 sells for $56.23 and the OAS for a 30-year GNMA pass-through bond is $0.002 per dollar of face value. $67,649,690.00

  9. UBS originates a CMO backed by interest only GNMA bonds with $20M of Class A principal, $150M of Class B principal and $200M of Class C principal. The Class A, Class B and Class C bonds pay an annual coupon of 12%, 5% and 3% respectively. Find the payments to the Class A, B and C bond holders at the end of month 3 if: (assume all payments are made in arrears) • $5M of principal is pre-paid each month • $5M of residential mortgage principal defaults each month • $5M is prepaid each month and the originating SPV files for bankruptcy in month 2 • Class A = 5,100,000 Class B = 625,000 • Class C = 500,000 • No Change • No Change

  10. Securitization Problems • Regulatory tax – cost of holding mortgages on balance sheet • Pass Though bond payments – No prepayment risk • No Fees • With GNMA & Servicing Fees • Pass Through bond value – No prepayment risk • Pass through bond payments – with prepayment risk • Option Adjusted Spread (OAS) • CMO Payments – non-amortizing loan pool

  11. Liquidity Risk

  12. Liquidity Risk Summary • Types of liquidity • Asset-side Liquidity • Liability-side Liquidity • Managing Liquidity • Stored Liquidity – sell assets • Purchased Liquidity – borrow funds • Measuring Liquidity

  13. Suppose a customer of a bank with the following balance sheet takes down $100 million of a loan commitment, how would the balance sheet change if the DI: (i) Uses stored liquidity to meet its commitment (ii) Uses purchased liquidity to meet its commitment • Cash = 0, Loans = 150, MS = 150 • Loans = 150, Borrowed = 225

  14. Suppose a bank with the following balance sheet experiences a $100 million net deposit drain, how would the balance sheet change if the DI: (i) Uses stored liquidity to meet its commitment (ii) Uses purchased liquidity to meet its commitment • Cash = 0, MS = 150, Deposits = 68 • Deposits = 68 Borrowed = 225

  15. Measuring Liquidity • Sources and uses of liquidity • Peer Group Comparison • Liquidity Index

  16. Example: use the following ratios to determine which bank is more exposed to liquidity risk (from external markets)

  17. The table shows estimates of fundamental asset value and the value that could be recovered for immediate sale. Use this information to calculate the liquidity index of the bank. L=25.6%

  18. Liquidity Risk Problems • Asset/Liability side liquidity risk management • Pear Group Comparison • Liquidity Index

  19. Liquidity & Liability Management

  20. Liability and Liquidity Management • Costs and benefits of regulating reserve requirements • Monetary policy and RR • Costs and benefits of holding liquid vs illiquid assets • Calculating reserve requirements • Managing & manipulating reserve requirements

  21. Example: Over the period from February 14-27 a bank has: • Cumulative transaction account balance of $12,430M • They are owed 800M from other US DIs (cumulative) • They have $500M of cash in the process of being delivered (cumulative) • Cumulative vault cash of $200M over. (i) calculate the reserve requirement to be maintained at the fed Total = 76.083M At the Fed = 61.793M

  22. Liability and Liquidity Management Problems • Find computation & maintenance period • Calculate Reserve Requirements • Total • At the Fed • In the vault • Over/under shoot reserve requirements & carry forwards

  23. Deposit Insurance

  24. Depository Insurance Summary • Depository Insurance history and structure • Agencies, Limits, Structure • Purpose of depository insurance • Costs and benefits of depository insurance • Problems and proposed solutions with depository insurance

  25. By how much will the premium for depository insurance change if the bank is forced to write down a loss of $15M on its mortgage portfolio. The Bank is classified as supervisory concerned Change = 1,099,200-137,400=961,800

  26. Total risk based capital ratio ≥ 10% or Tier I risk-based capital ratio ≥ 6% or Tier I Leverage ratio ≥ 5% Total risk-based capital ratio ≥ 8% or Tier I risk-based capital ratio ≥ 4% or Tier I Leverage ratio ≥ 4%

  27. First Boston Bank has total assets of $398M total deposits of $345M all of which are insured. They have estimated the volatility of returns on assets to be 0.12 pa. Suppose the one-year risk free rate is 1.6%. Find the depository insurance premium that First Boston should be charged. P(t) = 1,890,183.46

  28. Find Φ(X2) = -1.38 on the table: 1.0000 - 0.9162 0.0838

  29. Find Φ(X2) = -1.26 on the table: 1.0000 - 0.8962 0.1038

  30. Deposit Insurance Problems • Find the deposit insurance premium using the table • Find the deposit insurance premium using options pricing

  31. Market Risk

  32. Market Risk Summary • RiskMetrics – Variance Covariance • Estimates the risk of individual trading books using VaR • Combines the risk of all trading books accounting for diversification • Produces a daily earnings at risk (DEAR) that estimates the potential loss from the full trading book that occurs with a certain probability (1%, 5% ...)

  33. Example: Calculate the 99% DEAR for a bank with: (i) a $5M equity portfolio with beta equal to .8 (ii) a BBB portfolio of zero coupon bonds with maturity of 12.5 years, total face value of $20M and average YTM of 10.2%. Assume that the daily expected return and volatility of the market are 0.00012 and 0.0005 respectively. The risk free rate is 0.00001 per day. The mean and standard deviation of the daily changes in the yield on BBB bonds is 0.00 and 0.00082 respectively. Assume that the correlation between YTM changes and market returns is .23 128,253.05

  34. Market Risk Problems • Calculate DEAR

  35. More Examples

  36. Securitization

  37. Allied Bank originates a GNMA securitization backed by $12M in residential mortgage principal. The pool of mortgages generates a 4.1% aggregate mortgage coupon pa. Find the interest paymentto GNMA bond holders, the SPV and GNMA after the 4th month. The servicing fee is 28bp pa. and GNMA insurance costs 14bp pa. Assume 325% PSA. Service fee = 2,692.10 GNMA insurance = 1,346.05 Bond Holders = 35,381.84

  38. IDBI Money Market Mutual fund purchased a newly originated GNMA pass-through bond 7 years ago. The bond pays $1.2M per month. There is a 45bp annual servicing fee on the pool and GNMA insurance costs 12bps pa. The current mortgage rate is 3.9%. Find the current value of the GNMA bond if there is 23 years left to maturity. Assume no prepayment risk. $231,174,604.3310

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