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Measuring emigration at the census

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division. Measuring emigration at the census. Regional Training Workshop on Population and Housing Censuses for South Eastern European Countries Ohrid, 24-26 November 2008. Summary of previous episodes.

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Measuring emigration at the census

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  1. United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeStatistical Division Measuring emigration at the census Regional Training Workshop on Population and Housing Censuses for South Eastern European Countries Ohrid, 24-26 November 2008

  2. Summary of previous episodes UNECE analysis of experience of 4 countries at 2000 Census Round: Georgia Tunisia Moldova Poland Data compared with those from destination countries

  3. Two critical issues Resident population count vs. emigrants count Accuracy of emigrants’ count

  4. 1. Resident population count Accurate count of resident population: first goal of the census Strict application of 12-months rule Exclusion of nationals residing abroad from population count

  5. 1. Practices from 4 countries Georgia and Tunisia: separate module emigrants excluded from population count Moldova and Poland: questions in main census form emigrants included in population count

  6. In view of next census.. Different approaches can be used: Questions in the main form Separate module Separate list But distinguish: ‘temporary absent’  IN ‘long-term absent’  OUT

  7. 2. Accuracy of emigration count Information is collected on absentees Two problems: Reliability of answers from proxy respondent Proxy respondent does not exist

  8. 2. Accuracy of emigration count Three cases: Entire household (HH) leaves the country Some members of HH remain but, before the census, the HH dissolves Some members of HH remain and fill in the form

  9. 2. Accuracy of emigration count There are cases where proxy respondent does not exist  undercounting However, there can also be overcounting

  10. Citizens of Poland living in other countries (2002)

  11. Poland: emigrants by year of migration

  12. Accuracy of emigration count Data collection worked well for emigrants that: Had left the country in the years just before the census (up to 5 yrs.) Are more likely to keep close ties with the country (Polish data were better for Italy and Germany than for emigrants in the US or Canada) Are members of the family nucleus that is left behind (e.g. Tunisian males) Are still included in an administrative register (Poland)

  13. To conclude… It’s fundamental to keep separate the count of population from the count of emigrants (persons residing abroad for 1 year or more) The census cannot provide a good estimate of the total number of emigrants living abroad It’s important to identify what group of emigrants we can reasonably count in a census. (For example, those having left the country in the last years and having close family ties)

  14. To conclude… An emigration module can provide important information, not on the total count, but on other aspects (geographical distribution of emigrants, information on households left behind, reason of migration, socio-economic characteristics) Accurate test of questions/module is necessary (use experience of other countries) Choice of respondents is fundamental (undercounting vs. overcounting)

  15. Emigration topics in the census… A practice to recommend? No accurate count of nationals living abroad However: Strategy to have more accurate population count Some useful information on emigration related topics

  16. Appendix Measuring emigration through immigration data of receiving countries Documentation at: http://www.unece.org/stats/documents/2008.03.migration.htm

  17. First step Identify information needs For example: Total outflows for population estimates Outflows of nationals Nationals residing abroad (expatriates) Short-term emigration

  18. Second step Map information needs and data sources of receiving country: For example: population census can give data on stocks of nationals living abroad, not on annual flows

  19. Third step To better use data of receiving country, check: coverage of the source; definition of international migrant/migration; data accuracy; availability of origin-destination data; different time references

  20. Fourth and final step Compare your data with data from receiving countries, on flows and stocks Do demographic analysis Identify weaknesses and strengths of your data Possible methods to adjust your data?

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