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Methodical guidelines for preparation of LITHUANIAN GHG emissions projections

Methodical guidelines for preparation of LITHUANIAN GHG emissions projections. Inga Konstantinavičiūtė, A . Galinis, V . Mi škinis , V. Bobinaitė, V. Lekavičius Lithuanian energy institute 40th IAEE International Conference, 18 - 21 June 2017 Singapore. The main aim of the study.

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Methodical guidelines for preparation of LITHUANIAN GHG emissions projections

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  1. Methodical guidelines for preparation of LITHUANIAN GHG emissions projections Inga Konstantinavičiūtė, A. Galinis, V. Miškinis, V. Bobinaitė, V. Lekavičius Lithuanian energy institute 40th IAEE International Conference, 18 - 21 June 2017 Singapore

  2. The mainaimofthestudy Striving toimprove the quality of GHG emissions projections in Lithuania by linking the forecast of GHG emissions to the perspective development of the Lithuanian economic sectors the methodical guidelines for GHG emissions projections has been prepared.

  3. Structure of methodical guidelines

  4. The general requirements of preparation of the GHG emissions projections • The general requirements of preparation of the GHG emissions projections are determined based on the analysis of international legislation that sets different requirements: • UNFCCC decisions • Regulations of the European Commission • Requirements for the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plans in the Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and the Council on the Governance of the Energy Union (30 November 2016)

  5. Levels of GHG emission projections

  6. GHG emission reduction targets for Lithuania Sources: 2020 EU climate and energy package legislation (Directive No.2009/29/EC;Effort sharing decision No. 406/2009/EC). Proposal for a directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 2003/87/EC to enhance cost-effective emission reductions and low carbon investments COM(2015) 337 final, 2015. Commission staff working document. Impact assessment. A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 up to 2030 SWD (2014), 2014. 20 July 2016 commission's proposal on binding greenhouse gas emission reductions for Member States (2021-2030), 2016http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-16-2499_en.htm. The mandatory binding target determined in the EU climate and energy policy strategy to 2030 will have influence on the implementation of Paris Agreement on climate change.

  7. Policies and measures for thereduction of GHG emissions and their impact assessment In the context of preparation the forecast of GHG emissions, policies and measures should be understood as they are defined in the Regulation No 525/2013: „policies and measures means all instruments which aim to implement commitments under Article 4(2)(a) and (b) of the UNFCCC, which may include those that do not have the limitation and reduction of GHG emissions as a primary objective“.

  8. Scenarios of GHG emissions The main aim of the forecast of GHG emissions is to provide likely forecast of GHG emissions considering to the national circumstances, existing and planned measures to reduce climate change. Countries have to submit three scenarios on GHG emissions: • projections with measures WEM (policies and measures that have been adopted and implemented); • projections with additional measures WAM (policies and measures which have been adopted and implemented to mitigate climate change as well as policies and measures which are planned for that purpose); • projections without measuresWOM(exclude the effects of all policies and measures which are planned, adopted or implemented after the year chosen as the starting point for the relevant projection).

  9. Ex-ante impact of implemented PaM on emissions WOM scenario The link between three scenarios of GHG emissions projections Ex-post impact of implemented PaM on emissions Forecasted volime of GHG emissions Volume of emissions, CO2 eq. WEM scenario Actual volume of GHG emissions Ex-ante impact of planned PaM on emissions WAM scenario 1990 t0=1995 tn=2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year

  10. Total GHG emission trend in Lithuania • In 2014, EU-ETS sector in Lithuania amounted 6.86 Mt CO2 eqv.and covered 34.7% of total GHG emissions including: • 60% due to fuel combustion; • 40% due to industrial processes.

  11. Emission trend under ETS In 2014, fuel combustion installations under EU-ETS covered about 40% of Lithuania's total GHG emissions from fuel combustion and industrial installations - about 90% of all industrial processes emissions. During 2005-2015 period emission from fuel combustion activities under EU-ETS decreased by 1,6 times. Emission from industrial processes increased significantly from 2013 due to the fact that GHG emissions from ammonia and nitric acid production were included in EU-ETS.

  12. GHG emission projections methodology according to the source category

  13. GHG emission structure in Lithuania

  14. GHG emission projections methodology by different source categories (1) GHG emissions projections is inherent from the analysis of prospective development of economic sectors. The perspective development of different economic sectors hasimpacts on GHG emissions, however, implementation of targets set for reduction of GHG emissions (i.e. limits for projected volume of GHG emissions) has a feedback impact on the development of economic activities. Seeking to increase the soundness of forecasts of GHG emissions, their preparation has to be closely related to the analysis of the prospective development of energy, industry, transport and other sectors.

  15. GHG emission projections methodology by different source categories (2) A GHG emissions forecasting requires an integrated approach and modern tools used for modelling developments of all branches of economy and assessing emissions. Methodological guidelines for preparation of GHG emissions projections are based on the integrated approach to prospective development of economic branches, and at the same assess the possibilities of current status. In this stage recommended methods and tools for the preparation of GHG emissions in different economic sectors differ in their detail and ease of use, however, over time, coupled with more information, they can be improved, new methods learned and the balance between the optimal development of economic sectors and environmental impacts reached.

  16. Stages of GHG emission projections

  17. Methodology of energy industries GHG emission projections Seeking to forecast GHG emissions in energy industries sector, it is recommended to apply methodology which is based on the optimization of the perspective development of energy sector considering to the environmental aspects. Comprehensive mathematical models, adopted MESSAGE software, can be used to analyse the perspective development of energy sector and environmental consequences.

  18. MESSAGE Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts • It is an energy supply model, representing the energy conversion and utilization processes of the energy system and their environmental impacts; • It is an optimization model which from the set of existing and possible new technologies select the optimal in terms of selected criterion mix of technologies; • The mathematical method used in the model is linear programming; • A techno-economic or engineering approach is applied, i.e. the model represents the energy system by its technological structure, aiming at the optimization of this structure, generally with respect to energy systems costs; • It is used for development of medium-term strategies, the planning horizon being in the order of 30 years; • It is an energy and environmental model, enabling the user to carry out integrated analysis of the energy sector development and its environmental impacts.

  19. Methodology of fuelcombustioninothersectors GHG emissions projections • In general, many of factors can only be evaluated in a complex modelling of energy sector development trends in the long run together with the analysis of the links between energy and the economy. • Consumption of fuel in manufacturing industries and construction, commercial/institutional, household and agriculture can be forecasted by: • MAED (Model for analysis of energy demand) model; • Econometric model. • The projections of GHG emissions in this sector can be prepared considering relation between the likely development of various branches and fuel needs for the production. • When prospective fuel demand is determined, the emissions from fuel combustion can be calculated based on GHG emissions accounting method.

  20. Methodology of transport sector GHG emissions projections There are different ways how to model transport sector. One of them - the transport sector in the aggregate form is included into the mathematical model for the analysis of the perspective development of energy sector and GHG emission. When the main structural changes in transport sector are estimated they can be incorporated into the COPERT mathematical model. Another option – a detailed mathematical model for the assessment of perspective development of transport sector and GHG emissions can created by applying the MESSAGE software. It can be connected to the energy sector prospective development model and in such a way an overall optimization of the development all economy sectors and GHG emissions reduction is enabled.

  21. GHG emission projections methodology according to the source category Methods based on the IPCC Guidelines for national GHG inventories taking into account projection factors, emission factors and other calculation parameters are recommended to apply for other source categories.

  22. Analysis of economy sectors development, application of various policies and measures and GHG emission projections are extremely linked to each other. This issue is taken into consideration in the proposal on the Governance of the Energy Union. Under this proposal EU Member States will have to prepare an integrated national energy and climate plan for 2021-2030 by 2019. GHG emissions projections requires an integrated-complex approach and application of the modern tools for analysis of all economy sectors development and emission assessment.

  23. Thank you for your attention! Inga Konstantinavičiūtė E-mail: inga.konstantinaviciute@lei.lt

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