MEA 593 Climate Risk Analysis for Adaptation Instructor – Fredrick Semazzi Introduction to Review Articles/Documents

1. MEA 593 Climate Risk Analysis for Adaptation Instructor – Fredrick Semazzi Introduction to Review Articles/Documents

2. Process of Adaptation to Climate Change Paper-1: TECHNOLOGY TO UNDERSTAND AND MANAGE CLIMATE RISKS http://unfccc.int/ttclear/pdf/Workshops/tobago/BackgroundPaper.pdf • Introduction • Many different technologies exist toadapt to natural weather-related hazards • These technologies can also play an important part in reducing vulnerability to climate change • Four steps to (achieve successful deployment of technologies) for adaptation • - develop information and raise awareness • - to plan and design adaptation strategies • - to implement adaptation strategies • - to monitor and evaluate their performance. • This background paper briefly describes these four steps and provides important examples of technologies that can be employed to accomplish them, as well as examples of successful case studies.

3. Process of Adaptation to Climate Change Paper-1: TECHNOLOGY TO UNDERSTAND AND MANAGE CLIMATE RISKS http://unfccc.int/ttclear/sunsetcms/storage/contents/stored-file-20130620104821216/backgroundPaper.pdf

4. Process of Adaptation to Climate Change Paper-1: TECHNOLOGY TO UNDERSTAND AND MANAGE CLIMATE RISKS http://unfccc.int/ttclear/pdf/Workshops/tobago/BackgroundPaper.pdf

5. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Paper-2: A Report of the Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group http://static.weadapt.org/placemarks/files/425/50b4e3408b75deca-shaping-climate-resilent-development.pdf • Introduction • Global warming, which could see the Earth’s surface temperature rise by 2.5-5.9 degrees Celsius by the end of the century compared to preindustrial levels, could greatly heighten this vulnerability, triggering more frequent and severe weather disasters, shifts in rainfall patterns and climate zones, and a rise in sea levels. • Climate adaptation is thus an urgent priority for the custodians of national and local economies, such as finance ministers and mayors • Such decision-makers ask: • - What is the potential climate-related loss to our economies and societies over the coming decades? • - How much of that loss can we avert, with what measures? • - What investment will be required to fund those measures? • - Will the benefits of that investment outweigh the costs? • Report provides decision-makers with a systematic way of answering these (ECONOMIC) questions.

6. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Paper-2: A Report of the Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group http://static.weadapt.org/placemarks/files/425/50b4e3408b75deca-shaping-climate-resilent-development.pdf

7. Engaging Stakeholders Paper-3: Advancing Capacity to support Climate Change Adaptation http://static.weadapt.org/placemarks/files/807/507c1ffb537f5accca-narrative-report-final.pdf • Introduction • The overall ACCCA project brought together stakeholders who included, government officials, researchers, local communities, and scientists from 10 developing countries in Africa and Asia, to interact and engage in efforts that enable and support making effective adaptation decisions, reduce vulnerability to climate and environmental changes, whilst promoting sustainable development. • Under the project, fourteen Pilot Actions were selected to identify adaptation options in several sectors, where the impacts of climate change are affecting community livelihoods and ecosystems. • Pilot projects have: • - collected baseline data on the impacts of climate change, • - identified vulnerabilities within the communities, • - developed risk communication methods and strategies, and • - identified adaptation options and recommendations ready for implementation.

8. Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation Paper-4: A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/11/29/1007887107.full.pdf+html • Introduction • Presents a systematic framework to identify barriers that may impede the process of adaptation to climate change • Three key sets of components create the architecture for the framework. • - First, a depiction of an idealized, rational approach to adaptation decision making • - Second, a set of interconnected structural elements includes the actors, the larger context in which they function (e.g., governance), and - Third, the framework is completed by a simple matrix to help locate points of intervention to overcome a given barrier. It provides a systematic starting point for answering critical questions about how to support climate change adaptation at all levels • of decision-making.

9. Adaption • Great Lakes Case Paper-5: The State of Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Lakes Region. EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA. Gregg, R. M., K. M. Feifel, J. M. Kershner, and J. L. Hitt. 2012. http://static.weadapt.org/knowledge-base/files/1103/50ae0324a2a3fecoadapt-greatlakesadaptation.pdf • Introduction • Climate change threatens the success and longevity of conservation and management actions • The general concepts of adaptation have been well developed over the past decade • Now, practitioners must move from generalities to concrete actions, including implementation, monitoring, and evaluation • EcoAdaptstrivesto facilitate this transition by providing relevant adaptation examples • The purpose of EcoAdapt is to promote adaptation action by • - (1) providing real-life, practical adaptation case studies to catalyze creative thinking, and • - (2) synthesizing information collected through interviews and surveys to further develop the field of study and action.

10. Adaption • Thames Estuary Paper-6 How do you adapt in an uncertain world? Lessons from the Thames Estuary 2100 project http://www.worldresourcesreport.org/files/wrr/papers/wrr_reeder_and_ranger_uncertainty.pdf • Introduction • This paper outlines an approach to tackle uncertainty to ensure that adaptation decisions made today are resilient to a fast changing and uncertain climate. • The approach, based on a developing a simple ‘route-map’ of adaptation options • TE2100 project provides a real-life example of adaptation decision making under uncertainty • Steps carried out in the TE2100 project: • 1. Understand current vulnerability of the system. • 2. Map future sensitivities to climate change and other risks. • 3. Assess known (or estimated) key thresholds in between now and this upper-bound figure in terms of vulnerability to impacts • 4. Identify feasible adaptation response options (at high level) to cope with these thresholds • 5. Check key interactions with other issues, such as development pressures, at macro level • 6. Assemble high level route maps of response options that will tackle the thresholds • Appraisal Solutions • 1. Compare costs, benefits and other relative criteria (e.g. environmental impact) of each route under the most likely rate of change in extreme water level. • 2. Recommend the preferred route under the most likely rate of change, along with key variables which should be monitored to assess if a switch of route will be needed in the future. • 3. Implement and then monitor so you can bring things forward or put them back or change route

11. Adaption • Developing Countries Paper-7 How can decision-makers in developing countries incorporate uncertainty about future climate risks into existing planning and policy-making processes? (23 pgs) http://www.worldresourcesreport.org/files/wrr/papers/wrr_ranger_uncertainty.pdf • Introduction • Climate change is increasingly altering the pattern of climate-related risks. • The challenge for planners and policy-makers today is that it is impossible to predict with certainty the future conditions to which adaptation is needed. • This paper sets out simple, practical principles that aim to reduce the impact of uncertainty on decision-making. • It draws out three interconnected messages for decision-makers.: • - Firstly, for adaptation to be effective, comprehensive and implemented at the appropriate scale • - Secondly, adaptation strengthens the case for pushing ‘faster and harder’ on development priorities. • - Finally, through building flexibility into adaptation strategies from the outset, climate resilience even under deep uncertainty should be no more challenging than other areas of policy. • A central principle in managing uncertainties is to focus on promoting good development and long-term adaptive capacity while avoiding inflexible decisions that could lock-in future climate risk in the long term.