OPTIMA INCO-MPC Management Board Meeting, April 1/2 2005 Izmir

1. OPTIMA INCO-MPCManagement Board Meeting,April 1/2 2005 Izmir DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at http://www.ess.co.at Environmental Software & Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen

2. WP03: Modelling MODELS provide a • Formal • Structured • Quantitative description of the problems and possible solutions.

3. WP03: Modelling WP1: identifies problem issues, develops a structure for the description of the cases, identifies data needs and availability, constraints; WP2 analyzes perceptions and preferences, institutional or regulatory frameworks, plausible socio-economic developments; WP4 compiles the set of ALTERNATIVE WATER TECHNOLOGIES that can be used; WP5 looks into LAND USE change as one of the major driving forces, consistent with WP 2.

4. WP03: Modelling WP1, 2, 4 and 5 develop the boundary conditions and specifications for • Complete • Consistent • Plausible Set of SCENARIOS for simulation modelling and optimization.

5. WP03: Modeling WaterWare dynamic water resources model (daily, annual) optimization Embedded models: • RRM rainfall-runoff model for subcatchments (incl. erosion estimates) with automatic calibration • STREAM water quality model Related model (optional): • LUC dynamic land use change model

6. WP 3: Modelling Models provide estimates for • Economic efficiency • Environmental compatibility • Equity (intra- and intergenerational)

7. WP03: Modelling LUC: land use change model • Discrete state (LUC) transition model • Markov chain with stochastic transition probabilities • Rule-based constraints and TP adjustments • Temporal resolution: year, scope: decades (20-50 years) • Spatial resolution: ha to km2 • Resource use and pollution as land-use specific output; • Possibility for external, global driving forces

8. WP03: LUC Modelling Global/local adjustments of the transition probabilities expressed as First-order logic RULES in relative terms (INCREASE, DECREASE in %). http://www.ess.co.at/SMART/luc.html

12. WP03: LUC Modelling Interactive editors for • Land use classes • Transition probabilities • Modifying rules • Class specific resource needs/outputs are available on-line together with the viewer (player for animated results) Links from http://www.ess.co.at/SMART will be moved to http://ww.ess.co.at/OPTIMA

14. WP03: LUC Modelling Derived values per unit area, class specific: • Water consumption • Waste water generated • Energy use • Solid waste production OTHERS ??

16. WP03: Modelling LUC EXTENSIONS: Include transportation network in rules (connectivity) Other external variables (specified as time series) More LUC specific coefficients and processes (employment, value added, etc)

17. WP03: Modelling LUC OBJECTIVES: • Hypothesis testing • Developing CONSISTENT scenarios with high explanatory value that can also be used directly in the rainfall-runoff basin water budget model • Independent estimate on water budgets

18. WP03: Modelling RRM: rainfall-runoff model • Dynamic, daily time step • Uses daily rainfall and temperature • Major basin characteristic: LAND USE (summarized from LUC scenarios ??) • Estimates runoff and dynamic water budget for ungaged basins, provides input for WRM start nodes (catchment)

20. WP03: RRM Modelling • Includes automatic calibration with runoff observation data • Method: Monte Carlo, evolutionary programming; • Extract reliable features (Gestalt) from observations, define as constraints on model behavior, • FROM  TO (period) CMIN < FEATURE < CMAX FEATURES: min, max, avg, total, values

23. WP03: WR Modelling WRM: water resources model • Dynamic, daily time step • Topology of NODES and REACHES • Demand nodes (cities, irrigation, industry, tourism) • Estimates dynamic water budget, supply/demand, reliability of supply • Complete on-line implementation with editors

24. WP03: Modelling User/scenario management: • User authentication by name and password (monitored … ) • User can see and copy ALL scenarios, edit/delete only their own ! • TEST scenarios installed as EXAMPLES to demonstrate features implemented • On-line manual pages

26. WP03: Modelling Model structure: Topology (network) of NODES, connected by REACHES; NODES represent functional OBJECTS in the basin: • Sub-catchments, well(s) fields, springs • Reservoirs, structures • Water demand: cities, irrigation districts, industries, environmental uses (wetlands, minimum flow)

27. WP03: Modelling Model structure: Topology (network) of NODES, connected by REACHES: Represent natural and man-made channels, canals, pipelines that transfer (route) water between NODES. Networks include: • Diversions (splitting the flow) • Confluences (merging flow)

30. Water demand NODES Consumptive use Costs of supply Benefits of use Water demand and use: • domestic, • agricultural, • industrial Intake quality constraint, conveyance loss return flow (pollution) recycling losses

31. WP03: Modelling DEMAND NODE is defined by • Its type (domestic, industrial, agricultural) • Its connectivity (upstream, downstream, aquifer) • Its water demand (time series) • Conveiance losses (evaporation, seepage) • Consumptive use fraction, resulting in • return flow, and its losses • Quality changes (pollution) • Costs of supply – Benefits of use

34. WP03: Modelling WRM EXTENSIONS: • Full groundwater coupling, single or multi-cell aquifers with Darcy-flow coupling, in/exfiltration for reaches • Quality integration (return flow) • Economic analysis: • Water efficiency; added value/unit water • Cost-benefit analysis, requires, per node: Investment, lifetime, OMR, discount rate

35. WP03: Modelling Full groundwater coupling, single or multi-cell aquifers with Darcy-flow coupling, in/exfiltration for reaches Every node is optionally connected to an AQUIFER OBJECT: • Extracting water from it (wells, infiltration (lateral inflow, baseflow contribution) into reaches, depending on relative levels • Returning water to it: seepage losses, explicit recharge

36. WP03: Modeling Water Quality Modeling : STREAM • Uses WRM networks and results (flow scenarios) and dedicated editor; • Dynamic (daily) BOD/DO, plus an arbitrary pollutant (conservative or first order decay) • Input at start nodesand demand nodes: • Concentration TS • Pollutant load TS • Concentration as a piecewise linear function of flow • Overall mass budget and compliance • Dynamic Output at control nodes

37. WP03: Modeling Water Quality Modeling : STREAM • Uses WRM networks and results (flow scenarios) and dedicated editor; • Dynamic (daily) BOD/DO, plus an arbitrary pollutant (conservative or first order decay) • Input at start nodesand demand nodes: • Concentration TS • Pollutant load TS • Concentration as a piecewise linear function of flow • Overall mass budget and compliance • Dynamic Output at control nodes

38. WP5-9: Modelling REMEMBER: • Model applications are THE central part of the case studies !!! • All data compilation in view of model input data requirements

39. WP03: Model steps • Define the domain or system boundaries (river basin including any transfers !) • Describe all important OBJECTS: • Inputs = sub-catchments, wells, springs, transfers, desalination, Aquifers • Demands: cities, tourist resorts, industries, agriculture (irrigated) • Structures: reservoirs • Define NETWORK: link nodes through reaches (connectivity)

40. WP03: Model steps • Compile and edit the DATA for the NODES and REACHES: • Time series of flow, pumping, water demand, diversion, reservoir release as rules or explicit time series, • Loss coefficients • Consumptive use fractions, • Costs (investment, OMR, and benefits per units water supplied/used; • Edit one or more scenarios, document • RUN the model, evaluate runs.

41. WP03: OPTMIZATION steps • Define • CRITERIA, sort into • OBJECTIVES (min/max) and • CONSTRAINTS (inequalities), set numerical values, symbolic targets; • RUN the optimization model on-line (that may take a while …) • ANALYZE results as input to WP 14, 15

42. WP03: OPTMIZATION steps OPTIMIZATION generates sets of feasible alternatives, each optimal in some (well defined) sense; Discrete multi-criteria methodology SELECTS a single preferred solution from that set by defining preferences and trade-offs (multi-criteria) interactively: Users explore the decision space to learn what can be obtained, and for what price (the trade-offs) and how to approach their UTOPIA solutions.

43. Work Plan (simple version) OPTIMIZATION (multi-criteria) Maximize • Supply/demand ratio (by sector) • Reliability (% time, volume), • Efficiency (GRP/unit water), • Benefit/cost ratio meeting constraints (minimum or maximum allowable levels of selected criteria), minimizing non-linear penalty functions

44. Work Plan (simple version) OPTIMIZATION Maximize …. by • Choice of water technologies of different costs (investment, OMR) vs performance including structures • Different allocation strategies • Selecting criteria, setting constraints

45. Work Plan (simple version) 3. Case Studies (WP 7-13) • Run parallel • SHARE models • Use SAME structure for end user involvement, reporting

46. Work Plan (simple version) 4. Evaluation (WP 14) Post-optimal analysis: • Analyze model decision and behavior spaces (feasible set, pareto set, preference structures, trade-offs) • Cross-correlation, sensitivity analysis • Test for criteria independence

47. MC Decision Support Reference point approach: utopia A4 efficient point A5 A2 criterion 2 A6 A1 dominated A3 better nadir criterion 1

48. Work Plan (simple version) 4. Evaluation (WP 15) Comparative evaluation across case studies • Ranking by criteria, MC clustering • Discrete Multi-Criteria Optimization with end user involvement • Common patters and trends