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Effects-based Coalition Operations

Effects-based Coalition Operations. Maris “Buster” McCrabb KSCO Symposium 23 April 2002. My talk today consists of…. A brief description of the elements that comprise the theory of effects-based operations (EBO)

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Effects-based Coalition Operations

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  1. Effects-based Coalition Operations Maris “Buster” McCrabb KSCO Symposium 23 April 2002

  2. My talk today consists of… • A brief description of the elements that comprise the theory of effects-based operations (EBO) • A brief discussion on the implications of EBO for knowledge systems in a coalition (non-homogeneous) environment • The briefest discussion on framing, beliefs and mechanism (I.e., my paper) • An advertisement for the AFRL/IF EBO ATD research

  3. Global Air Air Situation T Objectives Tasks A Awareness Air & Space S K Control Force L Support E V E L A CRISIS N A L Y Force S Application I S Now Force Enhancement EBO in One Slide Plan Disrupt Delivery of POL Effect (Results) Objects Mechanism (Causes) Destroy Bridge 4 Destroy Bridge 6 Tasks (Actions) …desired behavioral outcomes. Bridge 4 Destroyed Mechanism (Causes) Indicators Objects Bridge 6 Destroyed Objects Indicators Objects Physical effects that lead to…

  4. Actions cause.. ..indirect effects Attack Marshalling Yards Normandy Battlefield Isolated Rail Movement Disrupted German War Economy Collapsed …direct effects and... Effects-Based Operations "Effects based operations is a methodology for planning, executing and assessing operations to attain the effects required to achieve desired national security objectives.“ AFDD 1 Mechanism Mechanism (cumulative) Mechanism (cascading) The challenge is predicting & assessing what physical actions produce the desired behavioral effects over some period of time

  5. Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions (total Desired Effect) Air Attacks (Military Effect) Solidarity of NATO (Diplomatic Effect) Buildup of NATO Ground Power (Military-Diplomatic Effect) Russian Diplomacy (Diplomatic Effect) Kosovar Albanian Attacks (Military Effect) Sanctions, etc. (Economic Effect) Operation Allied Force

  6. Operation Allied Force (2) Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions (total Desired Effect) Air Attacks on National C2 Targets Air Attacks on Strategic Targets Air Attacks on Fielded Forces Targets Air Attacks on Military-Industrial Targets

  7. Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions (total Desired Effect) Desired Political Effects Degraded National C2 Desired Military Effects Degraded Ability to Resupply Forces Degraded Ability to C2 FRY Forces Attacks on Infrastructure (e.g., bridges) Attacks on Electrical Power (e.g., plants) Freedom to Attack Degraded IADS Physical Actions Attack Serbian AF (e.g., aircraft, airbases) Avoid Serbian SHORAD (e.g., fly above) Operation Allied Force (3)

  8. Physical domain Information domain Cognitive domain Tasks for Knowledge Systems The challenge is predicting & assessing what physical actions produce the desired behavioral effects over some period of time The “domain” Of KS? impacts “ground truth” Organization (structure, functions, capacity) Observations (indicators), signals, communication Mental models, decision-making Thanks to Yuri Levchuk, Aptima, Inc.

  9. Semantic Network Thanks to Gil Kuperman, AFRL/HECA

  10. Implementation (Action) Feedback (not all shown) Actor N Group Decision Models of (Complex) Causality Thinly Shared Shared Understanding (Mechanism) Belief Structures (Framing) All dimensional, multilateral Situation Awareness Thickly Shared n-dimensional, bilateral Shared through mediation Actor A Actor B Models of (Complex) Causality Models of (Simple) Causality n-dimensional, bilateral Belief Structures (Framing) Belief Structures (Framing) Situation Awareness Situation Awareness

  11. AFRL EBO ATD External Relationships Organization Relationship • Our sponsors • Working technology transition via AT AOC • Working to incorporate non-conventional EBO (IO) • capabilities • Models for Homeland Defense • CRDA: EBO & Multi-sensor C2 Aircraft • Leveraging TS & adversary response work • Provided FY01 funds; FY02 funds planned • Leveraging their TS models: adversary response work • Part of Joint EBO team • Catalyst for JFCOM EBO Concepts • Leveraging their TS models: telecommunications, • C2 Process • Plan to provide some FY02 funding • AFC2ISRC/ESC • AFRL/HE • AFSAA • Boeing • DARPA • JWAC • JFCOM • NAIC

  12. AFRL EBO Related Research Efforts • Adversarial/Behavioral Modeling • Basic Research Initiatives (6.1) • Models of Defeat for EBO (UMass) • Adversary Intent Inference for Predictive Battlespace Awareness (UConn) • COA Development for Time Critical Targeting • Applied Research Initiative (6.2) • Effects-based COA development for TCTs • Software agents for monitoring and alert • Process Assessment and Metrics for EBO • Phase II SBIR • Assess current AOC and JTF processes for incorporation of EBO • Develop MOEs, MOPs, MOMs to measure success of EBO • Develop prototype Process Assessment Tool to automate metrics use

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