Showdown in Copenhagen The Climate Negotiations face Reality

1. Showdown in CopenhagenThe Climate Negotiations face Reality Tom Athanasiou EcoEquity

2. The Right to Development in a Climate Constrained World The Greenhouse Development Rights Framework Authors Tom Athansiou (EcoEquity) Sivan Kartha (Stockholm Environment Institute) Paul Baer (EcoEquity) Eric Kemp-Benedict (SEI) Key Collaborators Jörg Haas (European Climate Foundation) Lili Fuhr (Heinrich Boll Foundation) Nelson Muffuh (Christian Aid) Andrew Pendleton (IPPR) Antonio Hill (Oxfam) Supporters Christian Aid (UK) Oxfam (International) European Aprodev Network The Heinrich Böll Foundation (Germany) MISTRA Foundation CLIPORE Programme (Sweden) Stockholm Environment Institute (Int’l) Rockefeller Brothers Fund (US) Town Creek Foundation (US)

3. The Science

4. Arctic Sea Ice melting faster than expected 2005 2007 “The sea ice cover is in a downward spiral and may have passed the point of no return. The implications for global climate, as well as Arctic animals and people, are disturbing.” Mark Serreze, NSIDC, Oct. 2007. 4

5. Sea levels rising faster than expected Nile Delta 2000 5

6. Sea levels rising faster than expected IPCC-AR4: “0.18 – 0.59 m by 2100” Post-AR4: “0.8 to 2.4 m by 2100“ (Hansen: “several meters“) Nile Delta 1 meter sea level increase Nile Delta 2000 6

7. Global sinks are weakening 7

8. Tipping Elements in the Climate System Lenton et al, 2008 Even 2ºC risks catastrophic, irreversible impacts The climate crisis demands an emergency mobilization

9. The Emergency Pathway

10. Global 2ºC pathways and their risks

11. The Deep Structure of the Climate Problem

12. The deep structure of the climate problem Global 2ºc pathway Emissions pathway in the South Emissions pathway in the North What kind of climate regime can enable this to happen…? 13

13. … in the midst of a development crisis? 2 billion people without access to clean cooking fuels More than 1.5 billion people without electricity More than 1 billion have poor access to fresh water About 800 million people chronically undernourished 2 million children die per year from diarrhea 30,000 deaths each day from preventable diseases 14

14. The Deep Structure of the Climate Solution

15. UNFCCC: The preamble “Acknowledging the global nature of climate change calls for the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response,in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities”

16. A viable climate regime must… • Ensure the rapid mitigationrequired by an emergency climate stabilization program • Support the deep, extensive adaptationprograms that will inevitably be needed • While at the same time safeguarding the right to development

17. Greenhouse Development Rights Towards Principle-based Global Differentiation

18. The Greenhouse Development Rightsapproach to effort sharing Define National Obligation (national share of global mitigation and adaptation costs) based on: Capacity: resources to pay w/o sacrificing necessities We use income, excluding income below the $20/day ($7,500/year, PPP) development threshold Responsibility: contribution to climate change We use cumulative CO2 emissions, excluding “subsistence” emissions (i.e., emissions corresponding to consumption below the development threshold)

19. Income and Capacity: showing projected national income distributions in 2010, and capacity in green

20. Emissions vs. Responsibility Cumulative fossil CO2 (since 1990) showing portion considered “responsibility”

21. National obligations based on capacity and responsibility

22. Steps Towards a Fair and Adequate Global Accord

23. The Framework ConventionThe North pays the full incremental costs of the climate transition Annex 2 is to “provide such financial resources, including for the transfer of technology, needed by the developing country Parties to meet the agreed full incremental costs of implementing measures” (UNFCCC, Art. 4.3) These include full incremental costs associated with the “development, application and diffusion, including transfer, of technologies, practices and processes to control greenhouse gas emissions” and the formulation and implementation of “national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change”. (UNFCCC, Art. 4.1) “The extent to which developing country Parties will effectively implement their commitments under the Convention will depend on the effective implementation by developed country Parties of their commitments under the Convention related to financial resources and transfer of technology and will take fully into account that economic and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of the developing country Parties.” (UNFCCC, Art. 4.7)

24. The Bali Action Plan “To launch a comprehensive process to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention ... 1(b)(i) Measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or actions, including quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives, by all developed country Parties, while ensuring the comparability of efforts among them, taking into account differences in their national circumstances; 1(b)(ii) Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner;”

25. Allocating global mitigation obligationsamong countries according to their “RCI” 30

26. Copenhagen phase - to 2017

27. After 2017 - Global burden sharing

28. National / Regional Examples

29. Implications for United States US mitigation obligation amounts to a reduction target exceeding 100% after ~2025 (“negative emission allocation”). 35

30. Implications for United States Here, physical domestic reductions (~25% below 1990 by 2020) are only part of the total US obligation. The rest would be met internationally. 36

31. Implications for China 中国的测算结果 38

32. Implications for China 中国的测算结果 A large fraction of China's reduction, (and most of the reductions in the South) are driven by industrialized country reduction commitments. 39

33. Financial Implications

34. What are the costs? 43

35. National Obligations in 2020 (for climate costs = 1% of GWP)

36. Climate obligations, imagined as a (mildly progressive) tax Note: European Union effort-sharing proposal estimates global mitigation costs at €175 billion, or about .25% of projected 2020 Gross World Product

37. Final Comments The scientific evidence is a wake-up call. Carbon-based growth is no longer an option in the North, nor in the South. A rigorous, binding commitment, by the North, to substantial technology & financial assistance is critical. (“MRV for MRV”) Domestic reductions in the North are only half of the North’s obligation. The Copenhagen showdown: In principle, a corresponding commitment from the consuming class in the South is also necessary. In practice, the Copenhagen Period must be based on “trust-building while acting.” The alternative to something like this is a weak regime with little chance of preventing catastrophic climate change This is about politics, not only about equity and justice. 46

38. www.GreenhouseDevelopmentRights.org Full report released at Poznan Access to online calculator and dataset National and regional reports available Email info: authors@ecoequity.org 47