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Seminar on the economic evaluation of transport projects

Seminar on the economic evaluation of transport projects. The rationale for economic evaluation in Europe The case of EU regional policy A.Mairate, European Commission and VUB Madrid 15-16 November 2010. Click to add text. Outline. Cost-benefit analysis and EU regional policy

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Seminar on the economic evaluation of transport projects

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  1. Seminar on the economic evaluation of transport projects The rationale for economic evaluation in Europe The case of EU regional policy A.Mairate, European Commission and VUB Madrid 15-16 November 2010

  2. Click to add text Outline • Cost-benefit analysis and EU regional policy • CBA, revenue generation and funding gap • Incentives and trade-offs • Some practical problems • Institutionalizing CBA • Further directions

  3. Rationale for economic evaluation • Judgement about the value of policies, programmes and projects • Interaction between theory, practice and learning • No ‘gold’ standard • Governments act under constraints and uncertainty – evolving economic and political environment • Changes in institutional settings

  4. CBA and EU regional policy • Convergence in per capita income across EU regions as primary objective • Structure of EU regional policy involves multi-level government • Multi-annual programming as delivery method • Financial allocations defined on the basis of macroeconomic criteria (e.g. GDP per capita) • Resource allocation for projects based on microeconomic criteria

  5. Figure 1. The allocation of resources through the programming cycle

  6. CBA, revenue generating projects and funding gap • EU funding conditional upon results of CBA, taking account of merit and possible alternatives • Comparison with a situation without intervention • Determination of level of grant takes account of revenue generation in order to avoid risk of over-financing

  7. Figure 2. The allocation of Funds to the projects: CBA and the funding-gap method.

  8. Funding gap method • The funding gap-rate R is computed as follows: DIC-DNRR = ---------------------- (1) DIC where DIC is the discounted investment cost DNR is the discounted net revenue, (i.e., the difference between discounted revenues and discounted operating costs, including the discounted residual value where appropriate).

  9. Funding gap method • The co-financing rate CR is generally found as the minimum between the funding-gap rate and the ceilings set by the regulations (Max CR) : CR = Min [R; Max CR] (2)

  10. Graph 3. Structural and Cohesion Funds 2007-2013

  11. Incentives and trade offs The funding gap method creates incentives for better use of public resources: • increases the leverage effect of EU funding (more projects can be financed) • Reduces the risk of crowding out of private investment • Stimulates the formation of public-private partnerships

  12. Incentives and trade offs • But it has some ‘drawbacks’: • Government agencies and institutions tend to keep tariffs low or do not introduce charging systems to users (tolls) to benefit from maximum funding • Affordability and sustainability issues must be taken into account

  13. Some practical issues in CBA CBA studies often unsatisfactory due to : • Errors in DCF methodology (e.g. depreciation costs included, contingency reserves) • Residual values not properly computed • Sensitivity and risk analyses often incomplete • Inflation not treated consistently • External impacts not quantified But, more generally they lack uniformity of approach

  14. Some practical issues in CBA There are other more fundamental problems which require theoretical choices: • The choice of social discount rates (EC has set a benchmark rate of 5% in real terms) • Assumptions about the shadow price of labour (depending on labour market conditions)

  15. Institutionalizing CBA i.e. how to overcome the lack of uniformity of approach • Detailed EC guidance (regularly updated) • National CBA frameworks, including sector specific (e.g. transports) • Technical assistance to provide expertise to project sponsors (e.g. JASPERS)

  16. Institutionalizing CBA Some specific recommendations: • CBA studies should be commissioned by a central evaluation unit rather than by the sponsoring department or agency • CBA studies should be undertaken prior to funding decisions, to avoid bureaucratic, non economic evaluations

  17. Further Directions • Capacity building actions, especially in new MS to improve current practice • Conduct ex post CBA studies for accountability purposes • Make further advances in the use of CBA e.g. better incorporation of CBA in models of economic growth

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