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RT5: Evaluation

RT5: Evaluation. Albert Klein Tank & Antonio Navarra / Elisa Manzini. RT5: Evaluation. Albert Klein Tank & Antonio Navarra / Elisa Manzini.

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RT5: Evaluation

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  1. RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Antonio Navarra / Elisa Manzini ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

  2. RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Antonio Navarra / Elisa Manzini Objective: to perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble simulation/prediction system against observations/analyses ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

  3. Achievements • All RT5 deliverables and milestones are met ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

  4. Achievements • All RT5 deliverables and milestones are met ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

  5. Achievements global and multidecadal • Evaluation of global models used in multidecadal simulations (RT2a stream 1) • D5.5: systematic biases in the mean climate and seasonal cycle (INGV, UREADMM, IPSL) • D5.14: impact of model resolution on simulation of ENSO (INGV) • D5.16: representation of cloud regimes in the tropics (IPSL) • D5.17: representation of monsoon and its teleconnection (IPSL) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

  6. Achievements global and multidecadal global and s2d • Evaluation of forecastquality with global models in s2d simulations (RT2a stream 1) • D5.3: probabilistic forecasts of rare extreme events, incl. R-software (ECMWF, UREADMM) • D5.4: verification methods for forecasts of extreme events (UREADMM), plus websystem (KNMI) • D5.7: skill in the seasonal prediction of NAO and PNA (ECMWF) • D5.6: decadal forecast quality in the Indo-Pacific sector, discussion document (INGV, IPSL) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

  7. Achievements global and multidecadal global and s2d regional and multidecadal • Evaluation of regional models used in multidecadal simulations, with focus on extremes (RT2b and RT3) • D5.8: daily station dataset for gridding(KNMI, MeteoSwiss) • D5.9: analysis of possible gridding methods (UOXFDC, CRU) • D5.2: decadal scale variations of precipitation extremes in ERA40 and Alpine observations (ETH) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

  8. Achievements global and multidecadal global and s2d regional and multidecadal impact models • Evaluation of impact models (RT6) • D5.10: workshop “Lessons learned from seasonal forecasting: health protection”(UNILIV, IRI) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

  9. Achievements global and multidecadal global and s2d regional and multidecadal impact models • Linkages between the 4 clusters (and gaps) were discussed at Monday’s RT5 meeting • Coherent evaluation strategy will be outlined in the next PAR and soon available from the updated RT5-website • Next few example diagrams: ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

  10. global and multidecadal D5.5: INGV, UREADMM, IPSL JFM mean precip, 1958-2000 ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

  11. global and multidecadal D5.5: INGV, UREADMM, IPSL JFM sd of precip, 1958-2000 ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

  12. global and s2d 1-month lead NAO (DJF) hindcasts D5.7: ECMWF ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

  13. regional and multidecadal D5.2: ETH Bias correction of ERA40 precip in 3 Alpine regions, 1979-93 ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

  14. impact models UNILIV Rules based Malaria model run with ERA40 (1958-2001) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

  15. Plans, 1 of 2 • 8 deliverables and 4 milestones for RT5in next 18 months • Will see the start of more regional work when gridded observational dataset for Europe and RCM simulations become available • Stress that good access to all data is essential ! ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

  16. Plans, 2 of 2 • Extremes discussion: mismatch betweenhigh-impact extremes and statistically defined extremes • Participate in upcoming meetings: • joint RT4/5/8 extremes workshopRiederalp, 29 Jan- 2 Feb, 2007 • 3rd WGNE workshop on systematic errors in climate and NWP models, San Francisco, Feb 12-16, 2007 • joint RT4/5/CFMIP meeting, Paris, Apr 11-13, 2007 • EGU, Vienna, 15-20 Apr • …more on ENSEMBLES website… ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006

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