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The Economic and Labour Market Outlook

The Economic and Labour Market Outlook. Sonya Gulati Senior Economist November 2013. GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK. EMERGING MARKETS BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT. U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH TO ACCELERATE. FISCAL DRAG HAS WEIGHED ON U.S. GROWTH. THE FED’S EXIT STRATEGY. CANADA HAS OUTPERFORMED.

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The Economic and Labour Market Outlook

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  1. The Economic and Labour Market Outlook Sonya Gulati Senior Economist November 2013

  2. GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK

  3. EMERGING MARKETS BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT

  4. U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH TO ACCELERATE

  5. FISCAL DRAG HAS WEIGHED ON U.S. GROWTH

  6. THE FED’S EXIT STRATEGY

  7. CANADA HAS OUTPERFORMED

  8. CONSUMERS & GOVERNMENTS CAN NO LONGER BE THE ENGINE OF GROWTH

  9. HOUSEHOLD DEBT TO GROW MORE IN LINE WITH INCOMES

  10. CANADIAN EXPORTS TO PICK UP MODERATELY IN 2013-14

  11. INTEREST RATES TO REMAIN LOW

  12. CANADIAN EMPLOYERS HAVE BEEN BUSY

  13. MOST SECTORS HAVE BEEN ADDING TO PAYROLLS

  14. THE WEST HAS LED JOB CREATION

  15. SENIORS INCREASINGLY LEAVING THEIR THUMBPRINT ON THE LABOUR MARKET

  16. YOUTH, BY CONTRAST, HAVE YET TO RECOVER FROM THE RECENT DOWNTURN

  17. SUPPLEMENTARY UNEMPLOYMENT MEASURES POINT TO LABOUR SURPLUS

  18. STATISTICS CANADA VACANCY RATE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY FLAT

  19. ALTERNATIVE MEASURE OF VACANCIES POINTS TO INCREASED MISMATCH

  20. A FEW PROVINCES SHOWING REAL LABOUR MARKET TIGHTNESS

  21. BUT, WAGE PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY TAME, EVEN OUT WEST

  22. TD ECONOMICS LONG-TERM LABOUR MARKET FORECAST

  23. TD Economics www.td.com/economics This reportis provided by TD Economicsfor customers of TD Bank Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

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