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Cecil County Comprehensive Plan . Oversight Committee Meeting October 15, 2008. Today’s Agenda. Proposed Scenarios. Input from the Oversight Committee. Let’s see the numbers! Is this a “build out” plan or a “management” plan for 2030? How much should Cecil County grow in the future?
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Cecil County Comprehensive Plan Oversight Committee Meeting October 15, 2008
Input from the Oversight Committee • Let’s see the numbers! • Is this a “build out” plan or a “management” plan for 2030? • How much should Cecil County grow in the future? • What densities do we need to support future growth? • What do these densities look like? • Do the towns support the framework of the scenarios? • If so, how do we implement? • Let’s see the details! • How do we translate these general ideas to specific areas? • What about the towns? (COG meeting in September)
Revising the Scenarios • Some concern that there was not enough difference between the scenarios, and that elements of the Growth Centers scenario were unrealistic (urban open space) • Changed the Growth Corridor and Greenbelts scenarios to reflect input from the Oversight Committee • Added Protected Lands
Changes to Greenbelt Scenario The Resource Lands in the Greenbelt Scenario are larger than anything we've previously shown. These expanded Resource Lands are drawn in a way that is intended to cover contiguous natural resources such as agriculture, forest, and environmentally sensitive areas, using the following information: • Productive agricultural soils, as shown in the County's soil layer, cross-referenced with information provided by the APM subcommittee • Sensitive areas, as described above, plus Forest Interior Dwelling Species and Sensitive Species Review Areas • Developed or committed lands (including "pipeline" development, as well as some land zoned for development) was used to exclude areas from the Resource Lands category • 12-digit watersheds, used as boundaries in some cases • Roads, -used as boundaries in some cases
Land Use Categories • Development: Areas that would be developed on land served by public water and sewer. • Rural (olive green): New development would be permitted, at relatively low densities, with NO extension of public water and sewer (except for health emergencies). No change from before. • Resource Land: Zoning would permit only very low density development (likely at 1/20 or less). The eventual PPA(s) would be drawn within these areas, although every piece of Resource Land would not necessarily fall within a PPA. • Protected Land: Land that is already protected from development by virtue of having sensitive areas (floodplain/wetland), public or private ownership, or easement. This includes federal, state, and county owned land; MALPF, MET, ESLC, and other easements, etc. • Employment Centers • Mixed Development: Areas that would be developed as mixed-use centers of residential, commercial, employment, and institutional uses. The specific mix of use types has not been defined. • Towns
The provision of water and sewer infrastructure is seen as a key force driving change, as the lack of infrastructure has been a constraint to growth. The County’s agreement with Artesian allows the development of Elkton West and opens the easternmost section of the growth corridor The growth corridor between Perryville and Elkton would remain substantially intact. The Mineral Extraction District would be developed as a mixed-use residential area flanked by employment areas as envisioned by the property owners. Growth Corridor
Growth Corridor Original
Greenbelts • The Greenbelts scenario assumes that the people of Cecil County do not want to develop to the extent depicted in the Growth Corridor scenario. To constrain future growth, additional lands are designated for rural protection and the greenbelts are wider than in the Growth Corridor scenario • Greenbelts of protected lands would be interspersed within the growth corridor. • The extent of developed areas around the towns of Rising Sun, Chesapeake City, North East and the Stewart property would be decreased. More emphasis would be given to protecting agriculture and environmentally sensitive areas than in the other scenarios
Greenbelts Original
Capacity Analysis • Our planning assumption: Let’s start with the County’s capacity • Based on current zoning, Cecil County has capacity for 67,512 additional housing units. • Of this, 35,600 new housing units could be accommodated within the County’s Priority Funding Areas • This is more than the 26,000 housing units identified in the 2030 projections.
Modeling the Scenarios • Build-out versus 2030: • We are developing “build-out” scenarios so we can evaluate plausible futures for the County that assume a different land use pattern than we have today, and to consider areas like the Mineral Extraction Districts (which have no capacity assigned to them) • Key question: What should the buildout number be? • Our planning recommendation: Use Buildout plus an increment for the Mineral Extraction District
Choosing a Preferred Scenario Choosing By Advantages The Fundamental Rule of Sound Decision-making: Decisions must be based on the importance of advantages.
Choosing by Advantages • To illustrate the logic and simplicity of the CBA vocabulary, following are the CBA definitions of the terms attribute and advantage: • An attribute is a characteristic, quality, or consequence of ONE alternative. • An advantage is a beneficial difference between the attributes of TWO alternatives. For this project, the scenarios are our alternatives.
Purpose of the CBA Group • To give the Oversight Committee a role in determining the factors • To learn and understand the CBA process • To help the other members of the Oversight Committee understand and participate fully in the CBA workshop • To review and refine the factors that we will use to evaluate the scenarios • To identify the advantages of each attribute • To generate a draft CBA matrix we will use in November
Examples of Factors (and Functions) Function: Protect Cultural/Natural ResourcesMinimize Impacts to Mangroves/Wetlands Minimize Impacts to Coastal Barriers Minimize Impacts to Floodplains Minimize Impacts to Water Resources Protect the Cultural Landscape Provide Improvements to Water Quality Where Possible Mitigate Impacts to Native Vegetation Function: Meet the Needs of the Marine Research and Education CenterProvide Direct Vehicular Access to the MREC via a Public Right of Way Have Access to Seawater Provide Adequate Space for Proposed and Existing MREC and NPS Programs Provide a Contiguous Site for All MREC Uses Construct the MREC on Available Land Address Need for Future Dredging Improve Operational Efficiency and Sustainability of Facility Function: Provide for Visitor EnjoymentProvide a Quality Visitor Experience Function: Provide Benefits to the Local CommunitySupport Compatibility with Adjacent Land Uses Provide Socio-Economic Benefits to the Local Community
Setting Up the Evaluation Framework • Identify Potential Factors • Growth Simulation model (MDP) • Traffic model (MDOT) • Water Resources model (ERM) • Others • Run the Models/Evaluate the Scenarios • Identify Factors that “Were Considered but Dropped Out of the Analysis” (no difference between scenarios) • Set Up CBA Matrix • Perform CBA
Start with Model Outputs • Total Lane Miles (principal arterials) • Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) • Vehicle Hours Traveled (allows us to calculate the percentage of time motorists will drive in congestion) • Average Free Flow Speed • Average Congested Speed • Impervious surface, by watershed • Public drinking water system demand, by system • Point source (WWTP) wastewater discharge, by watershed • Number of septic systems, by watershed • Total Developed Acres • New Developed Acres • Development Capacity PDA • Agricultural and Forest Land Lost • Number of Residential Parcels Developed • Percentage within PFA • Number of Acres Developed Inside PFA • Number of Acres Developed Outside PFA • Percent of County Preserved • Number of Acres Preserved • Level of Protection in Agricultural Zoning
How Do We Organize the Factors? The Fundamental Rule of Sound Decision-making: Decisions must be based on the importance of advantages.
Maryland’s Eight Visions • Development is concentrated in suitable areas • Sensitive areas are protected • In rural areas, growth is directed to existing population centers • Stewardship of the Chesapeake Bay and the land is a universal ethic • Conservation of resources, including a reduction in resource consumption, is practiced. • Economic growth is encouraged and regulatory mechanisms are streamlined • Adequate public facilities and infrastructure are available or planned • Funding mechanisms are addressed to achieve the visions.
