The role of assumptions

1. The role of assumptions Critical Assumptions • Define the systems environment and sustainability issues • Factors which the project cannot control • Outside the scope of intervention • Essential to projects success • Results-to-purpose assumptions are the critical success factors Beware of “Killer” assumptions!!

2. Assumptions Is the external factor important? No Yes Will it be realised? Do not include in plan Almost certainly Do not include in plan Include as an assumption Most likely Unlikely Is it possible to redesign or Influence? Yes No Redesign project, reformulate project proposal Plan, strategy, project not feasible

3. Sustainability “A project is said to be sustainable when it continues to deliver benefits to the project beneficiaries for an extended period after the main part of the donor assistance has been completed.”

4. Sustainability Key factors; • Policy support • Appropriate technology • Institutional and management capacity • Economic and financial viability • Socio-cultural and gender issues • Environmental protection These factors are assessed in terms of their probability and significance in the same way as external factors using the algorithm.

5. Sustainability Sustainability starts with project programme design, for example; A project to improve peoples lives through increased food production via irrigation and use of pesticides. Will not be sustainable if water is extracted faster than replenished, or if increased food production is made at the expense of pesticides in the drinking water supply. Such a project will not be sustainable even if the increased food production is attained.

6. Objectively Verifiable Indicators (OVI) OVI describe the project’s objectives in operationally measurable terms & provide the basis for performance measurement. The specification of OVI act as a check on viability of objectives and form the basis of the project monitoring system. Objectively Verifiable Indicators means that different people using the same indicators would obtain the same measurements.

7. Ensuring OVI’s are specific Objective: Health status improved Set Quality (nature of indicator) mortality rates reduced Set Target Group (who) infant mortality rates reduced Set place (where) infant mortality rates reduced in north-west province. Set Quantity: infant mortality rates reduced in north-west province from X to Y. Set Time: infant mortality rates reduced in north-west province from X to Y by the year 2015.

8. Sources of Verification (SOV) When indicators are formulated the source of information and means of collection should be specified. This will help to test whether or not the indicators can be realistically measured at the expense of time, money and effort. SOV should specify; • The format information should be made available (e.g. progress reports, project accounts, project records, official statistics etc. • Who should provide the information • How regularly it should be provided

9. Selecting sources of verification Specific sample surveys Cost Beneficiary interviews Adapted statistics Administrative records Routine statistics Management reports Complexity

10. Means and Costs “Means” are the human, material and financial resources required to undertake the planned activity and manage the project. To provide an accurate estimate of the means and costs required for a project, planned activities and management support activities need to be specified in detail. One area of particular attention is the cost of collecting data on OVIs.

11. The Logframe an Example A completed Logframe for our example project; points to note; • Formulation of the three elements of the project purpose “Rates of infection in babies reduced”, “Reduced rate of birth problems” and “Rates of infection in infants reduced” into a single statement. • The inclusion of assumptions on nutrition to be dealt with by another project. • Building capacity through training staff in data collection and evaluation • Inclusion of pre-conditions which must be met before funding approved

12. A presentation tool The completed Logframe provides a concise summary of the project, its objectives, indicators and sources of information by which progress will be measured, key risks and assumptions which may affect achievement of objectives. The logframe will be appended to a comprehensive project plan which will explain in detail how it will be implemented.

13. Intervention logic Objectively Verifiable Indicators Sources of Validation Assumptions Dept of Health stats analysed, ex-ante, mid term, ex-post Infant & maternal mortality rates reduced Mortality rates reduced for under 1s, under 5s & mothers from X to Y by 2015 Overall Objective Incidence of infection in health centres reduced from X to Y by X Rates of diseases in under 5s reduced from X to Y by 2015 Birth problems reduced from X to Y by wwww Hospital records analysed ex-ante, mid term, ex-post Sample survey of target group in years 1,3, 5 Health status of pregnant and nursing mothers, babies & infants improved Incidence of infectious diseases in the household reduced Project Purpose Number of PHC services up from X to Y by xyz Number of under 5s vaccinated increased from X to Y by xyz 1. Functioning primary healthcare service established at district level Clinical attendance records analysed quarterly Vaccination records analysed quarterly Mothers willing to attend clinics Household nutrition improves through availability of high protein foods Results Number of Patients treated up from X to Y by xyz Hospital records analysed quarterly 2. Quality & Efficiency of secondary healthcare improved Lump sum costs Reimbursables (See Budget) Dept of Health maintains level of funding at pre project levels in real terms Technical assistance Equipment Medical supplies (See activity schedule) 1. Replace mobile clinics 2.Recruit and train village birth attendants 3. Design and implement new procedures for …. Activities Pre-condition Dept of Health implements strategy of …….

14. Summary To properly assess the real needs of beneficiaries and to take account of differing views of different stakeholders it is important to bring together stakeholders at the Analysis phase. A Gender integrated approach is necessary to ensure that project design is consistent with differing roles of men and women.

15. Summary The main output of the LFA is the logframe matrix. The Logframe is not a comprehensive tool and does not guarantee project success. All to often the “fill-in-the boxes” approach is used to complete the logframe matrix during project design, leading to poorly prepared projects with unclear objectives and a lack of ownership by stakeholders.

16. Summary It is essential to ensure that the levels of objectives are correct. • Overall Objectives – the wider sectoral or national programme objectives to which the project is designed to contribute. • Project Purpose – the sustainable benefits to be delivered to project beneficiaries, institution or system. • Results – the services to be provided by the project • Activities – how the projects goods and services will be delivered

17. Summary External factors which will affect the projects implementation and long-term sustainability but which lie outside the projects control are included as assumptions. The probability and significance of these assumptions being met should be estimated as part of assessing the riskiness of the project. Long-term sustainability depends on factors such as, policy support, technology, institutional and management capacity, economic and financial viability, gender, social-cultural and environmental protection.

18. Summary The role of Objectively Verifiable Indicators is to describe the overall objective (s), project purpose and results in operationally measurable terms. The significance of OVIs acts as a check on the viability of objectives and forms the basis of the project monitoring system.