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Land of the Spooky Tooky Owl

Land of the Spooky Tooky Owl. Project by: Colin Curwen-McAdams Kyle Avery Spencer Johnson Stephanie Ostrander. Who Says What?. What is the growth rate of the Spooky Tooky Owls? When will the Owls meet their demise?. University Biology Students. Annual Growth Rate: 97.6%

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Land of the Spooky Tooky Owl

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  1. Land of the Spooky Tooky Owl Project by: Colin Curwen-McAdams Kyle Avery Spencer Johnson Stephanie Ostrander

  2. Who Says What? • What is the growth rate of the Spooky Tooky Owls? • When will the Owls meet their demise?

  3. University Biology Students • Annual Growth Rate: 97.6% • Time before population crash: 356.5 years

  4. The Government • Growth Rate: 86.8% • Crashes after: 66.4 years

  5. The Sierra Club • Growth Rate: 65.4% • Crash after: 22.1 years

  6. What affects Lambda the most? • Changing the Adult Survival Probability • Least Sensitive Factors: • Age at which start breeding • Female Fecundity Rates Momma Owl

  7. Maximum Reproduction Age(or, the previous LHS over the result of one minus the result of the result of s divided by lambda to the power of MRA minus alpha plus 1.) Democrats = 15 Republicans = 10 A new factor: “W” What happens to growth rates and extinction dates?

  8. Republicans Without W W = 10 • University Biologists • Growth Rate = 0.976 • Pop. Crash = 356 • Gov’t • Growth Rate = 0.868 • Pop. Crash = 66 • Sierra Club • Growth rate = 0.654 • Pop. Crash = 22 • University Biologists • G. R. < 0.9500001 • Pop. Crash < 183 • Gov’t • G. R. < 0.8500001 • Pop. Crash < 57 • Sierra Club • G. R. < 0.6500001 • Pop. Crash < 21

  9. Democrats Without W W = 15 • University Biologists • G. R. = 0.976 • Pop. Crash = 356 • Gov’t • G. R. = 0.868 • Pop. Crash = 66 • Sierra Club • G. R. = 0.654 • Pop. Crash = 22 • University Biologists • G. R. < 0.9500001 • Pop. Crash < 183 • Gov’t • G. R. < 0.8500001 • Pop. Crash < 57 • Sierra Club • G. R. < 0.6500001 • Pop. Crash < 21

  10. What? Both parties are wrong? LHS made up of three terms Two terms are exponential W always greater than alpha • If w – a is small, two terms begin to cancel and • Nonsense!

  11. Sparky’s Legacy Without W W = 60 • University Biologists • G. R. = 0.976 • Pop. Crash = 356 • Gov’t • G. R. = 0.868 • Pop. Crash = 66 • Sierra Club • G. R. = 0.654 • Pop. Crash = 22 • University Biologists • G. R. = 0.96683 • Pop. Crash = 278 • Gov’t • G. R. = 0.85725 • Pop. Crash = 60 • Sierra Club • G. R. < 0.6500001 • Pop. Crash < 21

  12. Equilibrium Occupancy How many Starbucks can we build?

  13. Hate Triangle? U of O Scientists The Sierra Club VS. The Government

  14. H : Habitable Area = =

  15. P : Observed Equilibrium Occupancy = =

  16. University of Oregon Scientists • k = 0.772 ± .0589 • p = 64.92% when h=65% • ho= 38% • hcritical = 22.8% 31.64% - 10% chance (1.5σ) • 7% more to develop

  17. The Government • k = 0.85 ± .0725 • p = 76.92% when h=65% • ho= 50% • hcritical = 15% 25.88% - 10% chance (1.5σ) • 24% more to develop

  18. The Sierra Club • k = 0.8 ± .0316 • p = 69.23% when h=65% • ho= 25% • hcritical = 20% 24.74% - 10% chance (1.5σ) • <1% more to develop

  19. Progress building stuff, selling shit, killing things

  20. Stage 1

  21. Stage 2 • Jobs and stuff • Good, manly work • Trees to build stuff for stage 5

  22. Stage 3 • Landscape not all cluttered up with trees

  23. Stage 4 + Decisions made regardless of science

  24. Stage 5 Create more useful habitat

  25. Stage 6 • What about the Spooky Tooky? • Why doesn’t this smug bastard get a job?

  26. Stage 7

  27. Okay, what just happened? • Wide variability of studies makes it impossible to make an informed decision • Errors surrounding k value make it hard to know how much can be developed • Cash rules everything around us

  28. What do we do? • Following the Sierra Club study doesn’t allow for development • University Study allows for 7%, so we can fit some suburbs • Government study allows for 24% - which may lead to the extinction of the Spooky Tooky, but allows for the proliferation of a very different species

  29. Stage 8 Fair Trade

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