Keith Hinchliffe London, 17 January 2008

1. Education for All by 2015: Will we make it? Keith HinchliffeLondon, 17 January 2008

2. 2000 2005 2008 Gender parity goal 2015 Dakar Midpoint The big questions in 2008 • Have national governments followed up on their commitment to EFA? • Where are the greatest challenges? • Are donors providing adequate support? • What requires top policy attention?

3. Global trends influence EFA • Sustained economic growth • Increasing inequalities • Rapid urbanization • Health concerns • Knowledge economies

4. Major advances since Dakar

5. 1991 1999 2005 Progress in primary education Sub-Saharan Africa Primary school enrolment up: 36% in sub-Saharan Africa 22% in South and West Asia 11% in Arab States Arab States South/West Asia Central Asia Central/Eastern Europe East Asia/Pacific Latin America Caribbean North America Western Europe 60 80 50 70 90 100 Net enrolment ratios in primary education (%)

6. 1991 1999 2005 Rapid expansion of primary education The 25 countries with the highest NER increases Niger Burkina Eritrea Mali Guinea Ethiopia Senegal Significant acceleration in post-Dakar period compared to 1990s Ghana Mauritania Yemen Gambia Mozambique Benin Kenya Nepal Morocco Lesotho Zambia Myanmar Madagascar Guatemala Iran, Isl. Rep. Sao Tome/Principe U. R. Tanzania Cambodia 0 20 40 60 80 100 Net enrolment ratios in primary education (%)

7. More girls in primary school Gender parity line Afghanistan • 17countries achieved gender parity in primary education between 1999 and 2005 • In total 63% of countries have achieved gender parity at the primary level Chad Niger Yemen Côte Mali Benin Burkina Djibouti Guinea Mozambique Togo Burundi Ethiopia Morocco • Specific policies to encourage girls’ schooling have included: - Community mobilization - Targeting disadvantaged areas - Free learning materials - Sanitation in schools Guatemala Cambodia India Nepal Senegal Ghana Uganda 1999 Mauritania 2005 Malawi Gambia 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Gender parity index in primary GER

8. 2005 Out-of-school children declining Sub-Saharan Africa 1999: 96 million South/West Asia East Asia/Pacific Arab States 2005: 72 million 1999 Latin America Caribbean Central/Eastern Europe North America Western Europe 60% girls in Arab States 66% in South and West Asia Central Asia 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Out-of school children, million

9. Out-of-school children: country zoom Nigeria India Pakistan Ethiopia U. R. Tanzania Important progress in some countries with more than one million out-of school children in 1999 Kenya Iran, Isl. Rep. Mozambique Niger 1999 Yemen 2005 Ghana Côte d'Ivoire Burkina Faso Bangladesh Morocco Mali Myanmar Nepal Brazil 0 2 4 6 8 Out-of-school children, million

10. Increased attention to quality issues 1995-1999 Sub-Saharan Africa 33 24 2000-2006 Arab States 55 15 More and more governments are carrying out national learning assessments and participating in international and regional ones 11 33 Central Asia 64 East Asia/Pacific 15 11 44 South/West Asia Latin America Caribbean 54 59 N. America W. Europe 69 77 Central Eastern Europe 65 25 % of countries that have carried out at least one national assessment between 1995-99 and 2000-06

11. EFA Development Index: significant progress in some countries Out of 129 countries: South Africa Dominican Rep. Namibia 51 high achievers Swaziland Lesotho Guatemala 53in intermediate position. Nicaragua • Index pulled down by low education quality or low adult literacy levels Iraq Bangladesh Nepal Malawi • 25 far from achieving EFA of which: • 16 in sub-Saharan Africa • 4 Arab States • 4 in South and West Asia • 1 in East Asia / Pacific Mauritania Yemen Mozambique 1999 Ethiopia 2005 Chad 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Education Development Index

12. Increases in national spending on education El Salvador Madagascar • 50 out of 84 countries outside North America and Western Europe increased the share. • 18 out of 24 in sub-Saharan Africa 1999 Nepal 2005 Benin Tajikistan Mozambique Mali Kyrgyzstan Czech Rep. Colombia • 5% annual increase in public spending on education in sub-Saharan Africa and South and West Asia • Countries making significant progress towards UPE have generally increased their spending as a share of GNP Burundi Senegal Mexico Ghana Poland Hungary Malawi Ethiopia Swaziland Ukraine Bolivia Kenya Morocco Lesotho 0 2 4 6 8 10 Public expenditure on education as a % of GNP

13. Aid to education:substantial increases Aid to basic education doubled between 2000 and 2004, benefiting low-income countries, but declined in 2005 Total aid to education Total aid to basic education 10.7 9.2 8.3 8.2 7.3 6.9 6.5 5.1 Constant 2005 US$ billions 4.0 3.7 Constant 2005 US$ billions 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 6.3 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.3 2.6 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.3 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Low income countries All recipient countries Low income countries All recipient countries Total aid includes allocations from budget support and aid to level unspecified

14. Major concerns and prospects

15. Early childhood care and education:acting on the benefits ECCE programmes improve child well-being and prepare children for school but: 1999 • Provision of pre-primary education remains scarce across sub-Saharan Africa and Arab States Sub-Saharan Africa 2005 Arab States Central Asia South/West Asia • Lack of policies for under 3s • Programmes are not reaching the poorest and most disadvantaged children East Asia/Pacific Central/Eastern Europe Latin America Caribbean North America Western Europe 0 20 40 60 80 100 GER in pre-primary education (%)

16. Gender inequalities prevail • 63% of countries have achieved gender parity in primary education; 37% in secondary education • 59 countries have achieved gender parity at both primary and secondary levels • Gender disparities in secondary education are greater than in primary; they favour girls as often as boys Prim. Sub-Saharan Africa Sec. Prim. Arab States Sec. Prim. South and West Asia Sec. Prim. Latin America Caribbean Sec. Prim. Central and Eastern Europe Sec. Prim. East Asia and Pacific Sec. Prim. Central Asia Sec. Prim. North America Western Europe Sec. 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 Gender Parity Index in GER

17. Geographic disparities Progress in enrolment has rarely been uniform within countries. Geographic disparities in NER have increased in some countries 80 pre-Dakar 70 60 50 post-Dakar Geographical disparity 40 30 20 10 0 Mali Peru India Egypt Brazil Niger Nepal Benin Bolivia Kenya Ghana Eritrea Mexico Nigeria Guinea Zambia Gambia Burkina Ethiopia Senegal Morocco Colombia Cambodia Argentina Indonesia Zimbabwe Philippines Mauritania Bangladesh South Africa Mozambique U. R. Tanzania

18. Minimal attention to adult literacy 774 million adult illiterates South/West Asia • Number of illiterate adults increased in sub-Saharan Africa and Arab States • 75% adult illiterates live in 15 countries • 64% are women • Direct assessments of literacy skills suggest even greater challenge Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia/Pacific Arab States Latin America/Caribbean Central/Eastern Europe North America/ Western Europe 1985-1994 1995-2004 Central Asia 0 100 200 300 400 500 Adult illiterates, million

19. Indications of poor quality • International and national learning assessments point to relatively low achievement in core subjects (language and mathematics), especially in developing countries • Low levels of learning achievement are related to : • socio-economic background • rural residence • lack of access to textbooks in school, books at home • insufficient and inefficient instructional time • inadequate physical infrastructure and material resources • More than 60% of countries allocate fewer than 800 yearly hours of instruction in grades 1 to 6 • Survival rate to last grade improving but remains low in sub-Saharan Africa (63%) and in South and West Asia (79%)

20. 18 million new primary teachers needed by 2015 Teacher shortages Teaching staff has not kept pace with enrolment increases in sub-Saharan Africa and South and West Asia • Contract teachers fill gap in francophone sub-Saharan Africa and South and West Asia. They receive lower salaries and less training than civil-servant teachers • Pupil/trained teachers ratios above 100 in Afghanistan, Chad, Madagascar, Mozambique and Nepal

21. Financial resources remain limited in some countries • 34 out of 84 countries decreased the share of GNP to education since 1999, including some of those countries furthest from the EFA goals. • 24 out of 105 countries allocated less than 3% of GNP to education. • Several countries allocated less than 10% of total government spending to education

22. Strong variations in how much donors allocate to the basic level Luxembourg 0.03 Total aid to Greece 0.03 basic education Switzerland 0.04 New Zealand 0.1 Portugal 0.1 Total aid to Ireland 0.1 education Finland 0.1 The three largest bilateral donors to education allocate less than one-third to the basic level Italy 0.1 Austria 0.1 Australia 0.1 Sweden 0.1 Denmark 0.1 Belgium 0.2 Spain 0.2 Norway 0.2 Canada 0.2 Netherlands 0.6 United Kingdom 0.6 United States 0.7 Germany 0.8 Japan 1.0 France 1.5 IDB 0.0 FTI 0.0 UNICEF 0.1 AfDF 0.1 AsDF 0.3 European Commission 0.8 IDA 1.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 Constant 2005 US$ billion

23. Reaching the right regions Sharp increase in South and West Asia’s share of aid commitments Sub-Saharan Africa’s share dropped Total aid to basic education Other 9% 9% 7% 9% Latin America and the Caribbean 9% 13% 11% 11% East Asia and the Pacific 16% 31% Arab States South and West Asia 42% 34% Sub-Saharan Africa 1999-2000 2004-2005

24. Prospects for achieving UPE by 2015 2025: 7 countries 2025: 6 countries

25. Prospects for achieving adult literacy

26. Prospects for achieving gender parity by 2015 • 14 will not achieve parity in primary education • 51 will not achieve parity in secondary education • 29 will not achieve parity in both primary and secondary • 59 countries out of 172 had achieved gender parity in primary and secondary education by 2005 • 19 countries are projected to achieve it by 2015 Out of 94 countries unlikely to achieve the goal by 2015:

27. The Way Forward

28. Promoting access To offset the cost of schooling for poor households countries are: • Targeting poorer regions and population groups Brazil, Burkina Faso • Setting up education cash-transfer programmes Latin American countries, Kenya, Turkey • Providing scholarships for girls Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan Governments are also encouraging access through: • Flexible models for working children, enforced child labour legislation (218 million children still employed) • Inclusive education for the disabled • Bilingual education for children from indigenous communities

29. Improving learning Four broad policy areas • Trained and motivated teachers Training models, professional development, incentives to work in underserved areas, policy frameworks for contract teachers • Effective teaching and learning strategies • Active learning, relevant curricula, HIV/AIDS education, importance of acquiring basic skills, better assessments • Learning time, materials and textbooks Textbook production, unbiased learning content, free distribution to priority areas • Healthy and safe learning environment • Nutrition, health programmes, physical safety

30. Attention to early childhood and literacy programmes for youth and adults Good ECCE programmes offset disadvantage, improve children’s well-being and prepare them for primary school. Need for: • Programmes for children under age 3 • Multi-sectoral policies • Expansion of pre-primary education • Raising qualifications, better training Substantial scaling up of learning opportunities for youth and adults: • Setting targets in national plans • Partnerships with non-state sector • Strengthen status of non-formal education • Development of literate environments

31. Summing up Dakar’s impact 1. Effective national policies 2. Domestic spending 3. External aid Educational development • Rapid increase in number of children - girls and boys - enrolled in primary school in regions farthest from UPE • Rise in number of countries conducting national learning assessments • National policies targeting disadvantaged groups and areas • Measures to expand early childhood care and education • Increase in national spending on basic education in regions farthest from EFA • Increase in aid to basic education in low-income countries • Emergence of the Fast Track Initiative • More aid to basic education channelled through programmes rather than project support

32. Five policy priorities • Inclusion • Quality • Literacy • Capacity Development • Financing • National commitment to increase education spending • Donor focus on: • low-income countries and fragile states • ongoing support to countries making progress towards EFA

33. The report, summary, regional overviews, statistics and additional resources are on line at: www.efareport.unesco.org efareport@unesco.org