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The Problem With Polities: Some Problems in Forecasting Global Political Integration

The Problem With Polities: Some Problems in Forecasting Global Political Integration. Integration 該如何定義？ Social, Cultural, Political, Economic 等不同方式的 integration 有沒有不同？ Integration 必然要仰賴 communication(capacity to interact) 的能力。但是高的 communication 能力是否必然導致 integration ？. When, Why, How.

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The Problem With Polities: Some Problems in Forecasting Global Political Integration

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  1. The Problem With Polities: Some Problems in Forecasting Global Political Integration

  2. Integration該如何定義？ • Social, Cultural, Political, Economic 等不同方式的integration有沒有不同？ • Integration必然要仰賴communication(capacity to interact)的能力。但是高的communication能力是否必然導致integration？

  3. When, Why, How • Integration有甚麼好處？ • Integration有必然性？ • Integration如何發生？是否有不同的integration方式？ • Integration何時會發生？

  4. 如何討論Integration何時發生？ • Extrapolate past trends into the future…這種預測合理嗎？

  5. Hornell Hart 地理區域擴張。 • 計算maximum expansion rateper year. • 強調科技能力與expansion之間的關係。 • 認為 by 1950, either the world would be divided between two or morenearly-equal rival groups (in which case a ThirdWorldWar wouldfollow) or the world would be unified. • Despotic conqueror or a federation of nations. • 認為Federation 可以command the kind of coercive power thatcharacterizes nation-states and empires。

  6. Naroll的伸縮循環論 • The history of Eurasian states, Naroll argued, had been one of pulsation as they first expanded by swallowing up neighbors and then shrank or broke up again into fragments. Although these pulsations were highly irregular in rhythm, Naroll found that both their areal extents and periodicities followed normal curves. • 歐亞的四大帝國，每227.4年會有一次pulsation，平均的growth rate是4.08。 • 認為200年後全球政府可能出現，1000年時必然出現。

  7. Marano以帝國擴張的比率計算。若是不考慮人跡罕至之處，最快1500年後出現世界政府。若是以全球為範圍(不計算南極與格陵蘭) ，4400之後會出現全球政府。 • Carneiro以獨立政治實體數量的降低為計算方式，200-600年之後。

  8. The Problem with Polities • Polities該如何定義？ • Polities是否彼此必然是排他的(exclusive)？ • 若要計算全球性政府，它的起點是否該是從人類出現有政府之時？還是從零開始？New Guinea hunter-gatherer community的邊界範圍不是固定的。狩獵採集社會沒有排他性的明確單為概念。(Woodburn) • Polities以defense units的概念界定？從外部定義的問題—全球性政府沒有外部，因此不是polity！

  9. 征服與統一 • 過往研究多是以conquestwarfare來定義polity以及演化的動力。 • Presume a polity is based on a centralmonopoly of force. …. It is difficult to envision polities in egalitarian and big-men societies, for example, as the result of conquest warfare. • Hart, Naroll, and Maranosidestepped this problem by basing their projections on states and empires alone. • 附庸國該如何計算？ • 中央與地方的權限不明確該如何處理？ • 事實與法律上的差別。 • 聯合國算是全球性的政府嗎？ • 國家與城市之間的關係。城市的自主性。 • 村落領導人&Big Man • 若是可以用不同種類的定義，這些不同種類的定義是否仍然會有相同的結論？

  10. 為何獨厚monopolies on physical force ？ • Singles out one particularbasis to power at the expense of a multiplicity of others thatconfer power and can effect unification. • 權力—透過他者來滿足自己要求的能力可以有許多形式。例如宗教與經濟(跨國公司)。 • 不同的unification不一定同步： Global society may be militarily unified yet still home toseparate fields of control based on command of ritual oreconomicresources.Or, it may already have been long unified under religiousor economic control.…Perhaps, then, there is no global unification, onlyglobal unifications.

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