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Outlook for Grains

Outlook for Grains. Terry Sheales Chief Economist ABARE. World grain prices Global market drivers Prospects for Australian grains Longer term challenges for Australia. Today’s presentation. Global demand drivers. Population growth – ‘food’ demand Income growth – ‘feed’ demand

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Outlook for Grains

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  1. Outlook for Grains Terry Sheales Chief Economist ABARE

  2. World grain prices Global market drivers Prospects for Australian grains Longer term challenges for Australia Today’s presentation

  3. Global demand drivers Population growth – ‘food’ demand Income growth – ‘feed’ demand Biofuels expansion – ‘industrial’ demand

  4. ‘Food’ - world population 2050 9.2 billion 2009 6.8 billion billion

  5. ‘Feed’ – growing middle incomes

  6. ‘Industrial’ - US corn into biofuel 110 Mt Ethanol Livestock feed Exports Food & industrial Mt

  7. Global supply drivers Areas planted -- expected returns – prices/costs --returns from competing enterprises Climatic conditions Grain supplies --forecast/actual new crop --carry-in stocks --availability of substitutes

  8. Australian production to reflect: Domestic seasons --rainfall --frosts Prices to growers --world prices --exchange rates Competition for land & resources --returns from wool & sheep meat --input costs

  9. Australian grain prices 2010-11 $/tonne 7% Wheat APW 10 235 Malt barley 205 2% Feed barley 185 3% Grain sorghum 212 Canola 443 5%

  10. Grains area Projected Pulses Oilseeds Coarse grains Wheat Million hectares

  11. Grains v’s sheep Projected Grains Sheep Index

  12. Longer term challenges Productivity growth Climate change Investment ( R&D, infrastructure) Innovation

  13. Grains productivity slowing

  14. Trends in annual rainfall Regional Since 1950 Source: CSIRO 2008

  15. Trends in mean temperature Regional 1950-2007 Source: CSIRO 2008

  16. Agricultural R&D expenditure publicly funded 2007 $ million Source: Mullen and Crean 2007

  17. Innovation - GM crops increasing Soybeans Cotton Corn Canola % share Source: ABARE

  18. What’s it all mean? • Some stabilising of prices from 2010-11 • Grains area may be affected by a modest comeback in sheep • Adapting to climate change a major longer term challenge • Lifting productivity the key to grains industry sustainability – R&D will be critical

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