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The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England

The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England. Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany. CSTAR Warm Season Project. Kenneth LaPenta NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany Jessica Najuch, Dr. Lance Bosart, and Dr. Daniel Keyser

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The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England

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  1. The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany

  2. CSTAR Warm Season Project Kenneth LaPenta NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany Jessica Najuch, Dr. Lance Bosart, and Dr. Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany/SUNY

  3. Background Climatology on Closed/Cutoff Lows • Several patterns or categories of Closed Lows were developed from a subjective analysis done from May 1- September 30, 1980-2000 based on one closed isoheight for at least 24 hours. • The domain was from 36º-48ºN and 65º-88ºW, which is primarily east of the Mississippi River, excluding the Southeast, and south of Hudson Bay. • The predominant patterns/categories of closed lows were the re-curving Great Lakes and Northwest.

  4. June 16, 2002 Father’s Day • A Closed Low approaching from the Eastern Great Lakes Region • A concentrated severe weather outbreak produced hail, straight line winds and tornadoes. • Strong mid-level jet was moving through Eastern NY and New England coupled with a 500 hPa cold pool aloft (steep mid-level lapse rates), surface trough and moderate to high CAPE values.

  5. FO Tornado near Amsterdam in Montgomery County

  6. F1 Tornado in southeast Dutchess County

  7. June 16, 2002 Severe Weather

  8. Eastern New York and Southern New England Severe Weather on June 16, 2002 – Fathers Day • NY-MA-CT • 19 Hail reports • 8 Wind reports • 4 Tornado reports Source: Storm Data

  9. RAOB 500 hPa Heights and Temps 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Father’s Day

  10. 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 700 hPa RAOB Heights, Temperatures, and Dewpoints http://www.spc.noaa.gov

  11. 16 June 2002/ 1200 UTC 850 hPa RAOB Heights, Temperatures, and Dewpoints http://www.spc.noaa.gov

  12. 1200 UTC 16 June 2002 Surface Map

  13. ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed 500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded

  14. ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis 850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, Isotachs (m s-1) shaded and theta-e (K) dashed 250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded

  15. ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis 500 hPa Vorticity Advection (x10-10 s-1) shaded and Heights (dam) solid lines 250 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded

  16. ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness dashed and 700 hPa RH (>70%) shaded 850 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and Temperature Advection (x10-5°C/sec)

  17. ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis 850 hPa Winds (kts), 850-500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded 700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent

  18. ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis 250 hPa Divergence (x10-5 s-1) solid contours and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded every 10 m s-1

  19. Modified ALY 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Sounding

  20. Convective Parameters • CAPE = 1581 J/kg (Range for region 500-2000 J/kg) • Lifted Index = -5 • Total Totals = 47 • Freezing Level = 8.4 kft • Wet Bulb Zero = 6.8 kft • 700 – 500 hPa lapse rate = 6.5 °C/km • Energy Helicity Index = 0.6 • Storm Relative Helicity = -57 (m/s)2 (0-3 km) • Precipitable Water = 0.81”

  21. ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecasts for 1800 UTC

  22. ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast for 1800 UTC MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed 500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded

  23. ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr forecast for 1800 UTC 850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, Isotachs (m s-1) shaded and theta-e (K) dashed 250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded

  24. ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast for 1800 UTC MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness dashed and 700 hPa RH (>70%) shaded 850 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and Temperature Advection (x10-5°C/sec)

  25. ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast 1800 UTC ***ETA forecasting upward vertical motion coupled with forecasted 850-500 hPa lapse rates of 6-7°C/km 850 hPa Winds (kts), 850-500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded 700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent

  26. ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast 1800 UTC ***ETA forecasts a strengthening of the upper level jet streak, and southern NY on cyclonic exit region with a large divergence maxima just off the New England Coast 250 hPa Divergence (x10-5 s-1) solid contours and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded every 10 m s-1

  27. Visible Satellite Picture 16 June 2002/1615 UTC

  28. 1500 UTC Surface Map (MSLP solid and Temps dashed) L

  29. KENX Radar Analysis of Severe Weather across NY and New England • Overview of convective evolution • Analysis of the Florida/Amsterdam FO Tornado • Brief Highlights of Hail and Wind Events • Briefly analyze Dutchess/Litchfield County Tornado from a supercell

  30. 1557 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity ALY

  31. 1650 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

  32. KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity Loop 1702 UTC to 1856 UTC

  33. 1638 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity 1638 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM

  34. 1644 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity 1644 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM

  35. 1650 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity 1650 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM

  36. 1656 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity 1656 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM

  37. 1702 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity 1702 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM

  38. Amsterdam/Florida FO Tornado ***Tornado first reported at 1650 UTC***

  39. KENX 1656 UTC VAD Wind Profile

  40. 1737 UTC KENX VIL Product MAX VIL=44 kg/m2 VIL of Day was around 35 kg/m2 1.50” hail in Columbia County

  41. 1749 UTC KENX Composite Reflectivity

  42. 1749 UTC KENX Composite Reflectivity Cross-Section in Columbia County

  43. 1813 UTC KENX VIL and MESO 1813 UTC KENX 0.5° Velocity ALY MAX VIL = 38 kg/m2

  44. 1842 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM – Pawling Tornado in Dutchess Co.

  45. 1842 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

  46. 1848 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

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