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From Uppsala to Lisbon

From Uppsala to Lisbon. Kjell Aleklett President of ASPO Uppsala University, Sweden. Workshop in Uppsala 2002.

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From Uppsala to Lisbon

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  1. From Uppsala to Lisbon Kjell Aleklett President of ASPO Uppsala University, Sweden

  2. Workshop in Uppsala 2002 The world oil depletion curve is based on all available information on oil reserves and estimates of the amounts yet-to-find, and indicates that world oil production will reach a peak around 2010 and decline thereafter. The seminar evaluated the evidence for this forecast, and addressed the important political and environmental consequences. ASPO plans to update the evaluation every year as new information and insights come in, with the intention of providing governments with a reliable basis for planning their responses to this critical issue.

  3. Bruce StanleyAssociated Press Oil experts warn global crude supplies could peak by 2010 UPPSALA, Sweden -- Global supplies of crude oil will peak as early as 2010 and then start to decline, ushering in an era of soaring energy prices and economic upheaval -- or so said an international group of petroleum specialists meeting Friday.    They hope to persuade oil-dependent countries like the United States to stop what they view as squandering the planet's finite bounty of fossil fuels.    Americans, as the biggest consumers of energy, could suffer a particularly harsh impact on their lifestyle, warned participants in the two-day conference on oil depletion that began Thursday at Uppsala University in Uppsala, Sweden.    "There is no factual data to support the general sense that the world will be awash in cheap oil forever," said Matthew Simmons, an investment banker who helped advise President Bush's campaign on energy policy. "We desperately need to find a new form of energy." The Washington Times, The Detroit News, Houston Chronicle, Las Vegas Sun, Oil News, Bangkok Post, The Seattle Times, Atlanta Journal, FoxNews Channel

  4. One TV camera for 30 minutes Matthew Simmons: “We need a wake up call. We need it desperately. We need basically a new form of energy. I don’t know that there is one.”  Bo Holmström, TV4, Sweden

  5. Workshop in Paris 2003

  6. Doris Leblond “ASPO openly denounce the "politically correct" view held by most policymakers and institutions—not to mention oil companies—that "near-term oil supply is mainly an economic and geopolitical concern."

  7. Colin Campbell 2003

  8. Berlin 2004 “The peak-oil debate will be the Next Big Thing.”

  9. Berlin 2004

  10. Colin Campbell 2004

  11. Lisbon 2005 Peak Oil on everyone’s lips

  12. Lisbon 2004 The documentary workshop At least seven teams Represented by team Kelly Way, six weeks on the rood for peak oil

  13. Confucius500 BC Study the past to define the future

  14. The future of energy The end of the Oil Age

  15. The Hubbert model

  16. Oil reserve

  17. US Lower 48

  18. Peak in production

  19. The dream factories Fathi Birol

  20. Dreams of unlimited production

  21. Sadad Al Husseini26-Oct-2004 Sadad Al Husseini, just retired as vice-president of the Saudi oil company Aramco: The American government's forecast for future oil supplies are a "dangerous over-estimate".

  22. 120.6 10 new Saudi Arabia 2% increase Reservoir capability declines: the leaking bucket syndrome 100 mm b/d + 38.6 mmbd 82 +/- 80 mm b/d 97.6 mmbd - 59 mmbd 60 mm b/d 3-5 % capability decline rate 40 mm b/d 20 mm b/d 1995 2005 2015 2025 97.6 mmbd = 10 Saudi Arabias by 2025

  23. The world needs new oil fields ExxonMobil: In other words, by 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today.

  24. IEA – the dream factory

  25. Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, May 17, 2005 • Remaining world oil reserves are abundant. • Spare production capacity outside Saudi Arabia is minimal. • Saudi Arabia now is pumping 9.5 million barrels of oil a day. The country has 1.5 million barrels a day of excess capacity and could maintain 11 million barrels a day if needed. • There are a number of countries that can increase their capacity. • There are still huge oil fields in Saudi Arabia. The country has enough oil to pump 12.5 million to 15 million barrels a day for the next 13 to 15 years.

  26. Deutsche Bank, December 2, 2004 The ASPO view “The end-of-the-fossil-hydrocarbons scenario is not therefore a doom-and gloom picture painted by pessimistic end-of-the world prophets, but a view of scarcity in the coming years and decades that must be taken seriously. Forward-looking politicians, company chiefs and economists should prepare for this in good time, to effect the necessary transition as smoothly as possible.”

  27. T. Boone Pickens "Let me tell you some facts the way I see it. Global oil is 84 million barrels a day. I don't believe you can get it any more than 84 million barrels. I don't care what Abdullah, Putin or anybody else says about oil reserves or production. I think they are on decline in the biggest oil fields in the world today and I know what's it like once you turn the corner and start declining, it's a tread mill that you just can't keep up with.” Palm Springs, May 4, 2005

  28. ASPO – A Mission For Peace

  29. Colin 2005?

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