1 / 37

Simon Miller

Key Environmental Challenges: Inconvenient truths & convenient solutions. Simon Miller. Earth’s ecosystems provide goods & services worth $33 trillion per year – for free!. About twice the value of global GNP (which is just $18 trillion). Source: Costanza et al (1997).

satchel
Télécharger la présentation

Simon Miller

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Key Environmental Challenges: Inconvenient truths & convenient solutions Simon Miller

  2. Earth’s ecosystems provide goods & services worth $33 trillion per year – for free! About twice the value of global GNP (which is just $18 trillion) Source: Costanza et al (1997)

  3. “nearly two thirds of the services provided by nature to human-kind are found to be in decline worldwide” Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 www.millenniumassessment.org

  4. Pre-peak Harvest peak Post-peak Year of Peak Fish Harvest Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project

  5. Pre-peak Harvest peak Post-peak Year of Peak Fish Harvest Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project

  6. Pre-peak Harvest peak Post-peak Year of Peak Fish Harvest Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project

  7. Humanity’s Ecological Footprint 1961 - 2003 SUSTAINABILITY GAP Source: Global Footprint Network / Best Foot Forward

  8. 3.8 1.9 1.2 How much nature do we have? Hectares of bio-productive area per capita (assuming no loss of productivity, incl sea space and allowing for 12% biodiversity) Source: Sharing Nature’s Interest

  9. At the moment, we are using 25% more than the Earth can sustainably provide. Source: Global Footprint Network / Best Foot Forward

  10. Rising to 100% by 2050. Source: Global Footprint Network / Best Foot Forward

  11. Global Use of Resources (1980 - 2002) Source: MOSUS project www.mosus.net

  12. Our rising carbon footprint is of particular concern Source: Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R. J. Andres. 2003

  13. Change in Temperature, Sea Level & Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover. “11 of the last 12 years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest… since 1850.” Source: IPCC 4th Assessment report (February 2007)

  14. Global Frequency of Climate-related Disasters Source: Brooks & Adger (Ambio, In Press)

  15. We only have one planet Living Planet Index 1970 - 2003 • We only have one planet Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2006

  16. Elimination of most life Ocean methane hydrate release Emissions peak 2015 (400ppm CO2) Probably unavoidable (>350 ppm CO2) Emissions peak 2030 (450ppm CO2) Emissions peak 2050 (550ppm CO2) Emissions peak > 2050 (>650ppm CO2) Climate change by degrees 5° 4° Siberian methane f/b 3° Amazon carbon f/b loop 2° 1° Arctic ice-albedo f/b loop Source: Lynas (2007) Six Degrees : our future on a hotter planet (figures based on 75% certainty)

  17. STOP PRESS: EU agrees to 20% reductions by 2020 possibly increasing to 30% Options for stabilisation (450/550ppm CO2e) “Stabilisation - at whatever level - requires that annual emissions be brought down to the level that balances the Earth’s natural capacity to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. .. This is more than 80% below the absolute level of current annual emissions.” Source: Stern Review 2006

  18. Consumption varies considerably by region Average per capita footprint (gha) Source: Global Footprint Network / Best Foot Forward

  19. The challenge is to reduce the impact of modern urban living...

  20. …from three or four planets to one. A reduction of 70-80% in resource use.

  21. Key questions for business: • What is the scale of the change required by each sector? • Where best to intervene in the supply chain? • How to make change happen?

  22. An Example: • The Transport Sector • Challenges and • Opportunities

  23. Challenge: CO2 per $ spending Household equipment Recreation & culture Restaurants & hotels Food & drink Clothing & footwear Transport Alcohol & tobacco Misc. goods & services Health Communications Education Housing Almost 1,000 tonnes of CO2 for every $m spent on transportation.

  24. Challenge: Whole life cycle issues CO2 emissions from fuel use make up more than 80% of total. Source: Best Foot Forward

  25. Challenge: 130% growth in mobility Trillion (1012) of passenger kilometres per year Source: WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project , Goldman Sachs

  26. Challenge: 130% CO2 increase Gigatonnes (109) CO2 equivalent emissions per year “Transport was the fastest growing sector in OECD countries and the second fastest growing sector in non-OECD countries between 1990 and 2002 (emissions increasing by 25% and 36% respectively).” Source: WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project, Stern Review

  27. Impact – Causative factors Ehrlich Equation Human impact (I) Population (P) Affluence (A) Technology (T) I=P x A x T

  28. Opportunities… • Technology • Modal switch • Demand management

  29. Technology Analysis of 25 ferry routes showed 10x difference in efficiency (CO2 per passenger km) Source: Best Foot Forward

  30. Technology CO2 intensity of car manufacturer’s profits (2002) “Emissions rates for midsized cars vary by 50 percent across automobile manufacturers.” Source: WRI 2003. Note: PSA = Peugeot Citroen, DC = Daimler Chrysler

  31. Modal Switch Comparison of 5 journeys by 3 different modes (kgCO2 per journey - assuming full occupancy) Modal switches can make more than 3x difference in CO2 emissions Source: Best Foot Forward. Note: figures do not account for additional climate impact of air travel (x1.9)

  32. Biofuels Relative energy content of rape crop Source: Best Foot Forward.

  33. Biofuels CO2 emissions per litre fuel; diesel, 5% biodiesel blend, 100% biodiesel plus various options for additional renewables and use of rape straw and seed. 88% CO2 reduction possible Sources: Best Foot Forward, Folkecenter

  34. But is there enough biodiesel? Footprint of biodiesel production in UK would far exceed UK land area

  35. Demand Management • Companies such as HP and Nortel, that have offered teleworking have seen reductions of up to 10% in emissions from commuting. • One lift sharing company in the UK estimates that it saves 6 million car-kilometres/year. • In the UK, 10% of all retail sales are now online (predicted to rise to 40% by 2020) • NOT making a journey reduces its emissions by 100%!

  36. The Good News: interventions are multiplicative

  37. Questions/challenges What CO2 reduction do you think would be ‘fair’ for your business unit? What are the business implications of operating in a more resource-constrained world? Could you reduce supply chain CO2 per unit of output by 80% by 2050? How do you plan to sustainably manage growth? What combination of demand management, technology & efficiency improvements will work best for you? Thinking beyond CO2, what plans do you have to reduce your overall ecological footprint?

More Related