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Chicken Little

Chicken Little. The End is Near. By: Warren Barhorst. CHICKEN LITTLE. Do you know the story?

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Chicken Little

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  1. Chicken Little The End is Near By: Warren Barhorst

  2. CHICKEN LITTLE Do you know the story? • The Sky Is Falling, also known as Chicken Little, Henny Penny or Chicken Licken is an old fable about a chicken (or a hare in early versions) who believes the sky is falling. The phrase, "The sky is falling," has passed into the English language as a common idiom indicating a hysterical or mistaken belief that disaster is imminent. This usage is generally derogatory. • Although sometimes mistakenly listed as one of Aesop's Fables, the story actually originates from the Jataka Tales of BuddhistIndian folklore.[1] The basic motif and many of the elements of the tale can be found in the Daddabha Jataka (J 322). The Jatakas comprise a large body of folklore dating from around Gautama Buddha's time (6th century BCE) to the third century CE. However, this ancient version features a hare as the central character rather than a chicken, and the wise protagonist is a lion (the Bodhisattva or future Buddha). From Wikipedia Do you understand why the fable exists? Do you?

  3. HE SAW THE SIGNS Central Texas Home Sales Sizzle Slows(Housing, Austin-Round Rock, 11/27/2007) AUSTIN (Austin Board of Realtors) – Single-family home sales declined last month according to the latest MLS report from the Austin Board of Realtors. Year-to-date home sales for October marked... Fewer Listings, Fewer Sales(Housing, Wichita Falls, 11/20/2007) WICHITA FALLS ( TimesRecordNews ) – The number of existing homes sold here dropped from 146 in September to 108 last month, marking the second consecutive month of sales declines. John Caussey...

  4. HE SAW THE SIGNS Houston New Home Starts Down(Housing, Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, 11/9/2007) HOUSTON ( Houston Chronicle ) – Developers started 9,725 single-family homes during this year’s third quarter, a 28 percent drop from last year’s same period, according to Metrostudy... Sales Stepping Downward(Housing, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, 11/9/2007) DALLAS ( Dallas Morning News ) – Although not as steep as September’s 19 percent drop , area existing home sales continued stair-stepping down. October’s pre-owned home sales fell...

  5. HE SAW THE SIGNS Big Three auto sales declineBy Robert Schoenberger , Newhouse News ServiceWednesday, October 24, 2007 Fed's Bernanke: U.S. GDP to slow, USD remains reserve currency Posted Nov 8th 2007 12:44PM by Joseph Lazzaro CEOs, Wall Street warn of recession Fri Oct 19, 2007 2:52pm EDT By Bill Rigby It goes on and on and on….

  6. You’ve heard them all! • “You’ll shoot your eye out” • “The market is bad” • “No one is buying” • “It’s slow out there” • “Our Price is too high” • “My mortgage brokers are dried up” • “My referral source went out of business” • Bla…Bla…Bla…

  7. So is the Sky really falling…

  8. So is the Sky really falling… • The price of houses seems to have reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy that prices will decline.” (Time Magazine, December 1, 1947) • “Houses cost too much for the mass market. Today’s average price is around $8000, out of reach for two-thirds of all buyers.” (Science Digest, April 1948) • “If you bought your house since the war, you have made your deal at the top of the market. The days when you couldn’t lose on a home purchase are no longer with us.” (House Beautiful, November 1948) • “The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans. The typical new house today costs $28,000.” (Business Week, September 4, 1969) • “Be suspicious of the ‘common wisdom’ that tells you to buy now because continuing inflation will force home prices and rents higher and higher.” (NEA Journal, December, 1970) • “The median price of a home today is approaching $50,000. Housing experts predict that in the future price rises won’t be that great.” (National Business, June 1977) • “The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close.” (Money Magazine, January 1981)

  9. So is the Sky really falling… • “… In California for example, it is not unusual to find families of average means buying $100,000 houses. I’m confident prices have passed their peak.” (John Wesley English and Gary Emerson Cardiff, THE COMING REAL ESTATE CRASH, 1980) • “The golden age of risk free run-ups in home prices is gone.”( Money Magazine, March 1985) • “If you are looking to buy, be careful. Rising home values are not a sure thing anymore.” (Miami Herald, October 25, 1985) • “Most economists agree, a home will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it was through much of the 1980s.” (Money Magazine, 1986) • “We’re starting to go back to the time when you bought a home not for its potential money making abilities, but rather as a nesting spot.” (Los Angeles Times, January 31, 1993) • “Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment.” (Kiplinger’s Personal Financial Magazine, November 1993) • “A home is where a bad investment is.” (San Francisco Examiner, November 17, 1996) • “Your house is a roof over your head. It is not an investment.” (Everything You Know About Money Is Wrong, 2000)

  10. Texas MLS

  11. Building Permits

  12. US Stock Market

  13. US Unemployment

  14. What’s the Trend?

  15. WHAT DO THE TRENDS TELL YOU?

  16. Successful people succeed in any perceived market! Up or down it does not matter. How hard are you willing to work?

  17. Is Your Business Down?

  18. Do You Have The Right Combination? • Is your business built with multiple revenue streams? • Nationwide Personal Lines • Nationwide Commercial Lines • Life, Health and Disability • Financial Services • Brokerage • Fees

  19. Do You Have The Right Combination? • Is your marketing plan multifaceted? • Centers of influence • Mortgage Bankers • Realtors • Car Dealers • Apartment Complexes • Property Managers • Home Builders • Associations • Business Owners • Employee Management • Multi-line Existing Accounts • Direct Mail • Referral Program • Advertising • Sponsorships • Partnerships • Networking Groups Use the Back Door… Its easier!

  20. OVID: Let your hook always be cast; in the pool where you least expect it, there will be a fish.

  21. Do You Have The Right Combination? • Are you maximizing the revenue from each Personal Lines account? Auto $100 Home $120 Flood $ 50 PUL $ 35 IM $ 35 Life $350 Disability $400 Health $200 IRA $200 Its your Call! Make $100 or $1000!

  22. Do You Have The Right Combination? • Are you maximizing the revenue from each Commercial Lines account? • Do write the whole account? • P&C • BOP, Auto, Umbrella, IM, WC, EPLI, E&O • Group Health • 401K / Pension • Group Life • Key Man or Owner Life • Personal Lines • Owner • Employees

  23. Don’t Be a Chicken Little!

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