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BACK TO (SEE) THE FUTURE

BACK TO (SEE) THE FUTURE. CONTINUING WORK ON THE SOUTH COAST SIMULATION MODELING PROJECT. Outline. Introduction History of “See The Future” Model Capabilities and Developments My 5 tasks Progress on my 5 tasks Future of “See The Future”. Who am I?. Jeff Onsted

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BACK TO (SEE) THE FUTURE

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  1. BACK TO (SEE) THE FUTURE CONTINUING WORK ON THE SOUTH COAST SIMULATION MODELING PROJECT

  2. Outline • Introduction • History of “See The Future” • Model Capabilities and Developments • My 5 tasks • Progress on my 5 tasks • Future of “See The Future”

  3. Who am I? • Jeff Onsted • Second year graduate student at UCSB’s Department of Geography • Background: • BA Urban Studies and Planning, UCSD • 4 years of environmental research experience ranging from Renew America to SAIC

  4. In the beginning... • 1998 - ECP and UCSB Geography hire Prescott College to build “See The Future” Model of South Coast using state funds • Original Intent? Discover why there was crunch in South Coast middle income housing • Off to great start, but unable to complete due to lack of funds

  5. And now... • NSF Urban Research Initiative (Clarke & Couclelis PIs) changes focus to SB and seeks ways to couple “See The Future” with Urban Growth Model • “See The Future” work restarted at UCSB to forecast non-spatial indicators for the South Coast

  6. What can the model do? • Capable of forecasting many aspects of community including: • Population • Crime • Water Quality • Median House Prices

  7. So what am I doing? • I have been charged with 5 general tasks: • Transfer from PowerSim to Stella PowerSim Stella

  8. The other 4 tasks: • Simplify model • Couple “See The Future” with Clarke Urban Growth Model • Generate a small, useful set of community indicators • Create user-friendly interface and then “webify” it

  9. How much have I done? • The transfer is complete • Simplify the Model - Revised model generates only a subset of the original ECP indicators • Coupling (beginning stages) • Indicators (some finished, others coming) • “Webification” (should begin in late Fall)

  10. Challenges • Need more South Coast historical data • Model coupling is cutting edge research • Cellular automata Numbers • More indicators means more complexity • Accuracy (“Keeping it real”)

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