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The Future of US Foreign Policy

The Future of US Foreign Policy. And how Obama has dealt with it. War Number One. Getting Out: 2/09 Plan. Combat Operations Officially End: 9/10/10. War Number Two: Afghanistan. December 2009: Additional 33,000 troops Withdrawal in 2014. The New War. Drone Strikes. May 1, 2011.

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The Future of US Foreign Policy

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  1. The Future of US Foreign Policy And how Obama has dealt with it

  2. War Number One Getting Out: 2/09 Plan Combat Operations Officially End: 9/10/10

  3. War Number Two: Afghanistan • December 2009: Additional 33,000 troops • Withdrawal in 2014

  4. The New War Drone Strikes

  5. May 1, 2011 • Bin-Laden killed

  6. Middle East Turmoil Balancing US interests • counterterrorism • human rights and democracy • OIL • alliance with Israel

  7. Policies • Encouraging Egyptian military to oust Mubarak • Trying to salvage Yemeni and Bahraini leaders, but encouraging them to start transition as protests continue • Bombing Libya • Diplomacy with Syria: many implications • Saudi Arabia: silence

  8. Obama’s Foreign PolicyUS National Security Strategy May 2010 Threats US Role Economic renewal at home Expanding markets Economic Stability: G-20 Promote US values “Underwrite global security” “Shaping international order” Engagement China and Russia within a stable international order Strengthening Alliances • Non-state Actors: The “dark side” of globalization • Al-Qaeda • WMD proliferation • Non-Democratic Regimes • Economic Instability • Cyber attacks • Afghanistan/Pakistan • Middle East Instability • New balance of power in Asia (rise of China)

  9. Trends and Transformations? • Unipolarity: Can it Last • New Cold War • Multipolarity • Leadership, not Dominance • Middle Power Challenges • Globalization: Interdependence • Decline of Nation-State Power • Uncertainties

  10. 1. Unipolarity • Can it Last? • It never has before

  11. US Wealth See World Bank: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP.pdf

  12. Global Military Expenditures Country Military spending Budget Period World $1100 billion 2004 est. United States $623 billion FY08 Rest-of-World $500 billion 2004 est. China $65.0 billion 2004 Russia $50.0 billion France $45.0 billion 2005 United Kingdom $42.8 billion 2005 est. Japan $41.75 billion 2007 Germany $35.1 billion 2003 Italy $28.2 billion 2003 South Korea $21.1 billion 2003 est. India $19.0 billion 2005 est. Saudi Arabia $18.0 billion 2005 est. Australia $16.9 billion 2006 North Korea $5.0 billion FY02 Iran $4.3 billion 2003 est. From: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/spending.htm

  13. 2. New Cold War • One nation catches up to the US • Rising Challenger • Declining hegemon

  14. US vs. China • President Obama and President Hu

  15. Great Power Challenges • Rival Power • Ideology • One-Party State vs. Liberal Democracy

  16. China sees Hegemony Encirclement? (US, Japan, S. Korea, India)

  17. Launch Tube HatchesUSS Alabama (SSBN)

  18. 3. Multipolarity • Many nations catch up to the US • The US falls back to the pack

  19. A Multipolar System US Russia Japan EU, Brazil ChinaIndia

  20. Or Another Bipolar System USIndiaRussiaChina

  21. Sending a Message? Obama Administration’s first state dinner • Michelle Obama and Indian PM Singh

  22. Trips to Asia 2009 2010

  23. 4. Leadership, not Dominance G-20

  24. 5. Middle Power Challenges • Iranian power

  25. 6. Globalization: Interdependence: conflict won’t become war

  26. Welcome to China

  27. Welcome to the US

  28. Welcome to New York

  29. 7. Decline of Nation-State Power • The Nation-State System evolves • Governments weaken • Financial Flows that governments can’t control • Organizations that governments can’t control or defend themselves against

  30. Developing Asia Countries Net Private Capital Flows (from Commonwealth Treasury, Australia, Dr Ken Henry, Restoring Growth to the East Asian Region, 2002,http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/265/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=default.asp

  31. US GDP Growth

  32. AQAM Attacks 1995-2011

  33. 21st Century Challenges Global Terrorism: 9/11 Regional Instability: al-Shabab in Somalia

  34. Transnational Organized Crime:Mexico vs. Drug Cartels source:http://www.utexas.edu/international/ioc/safety_updates.html

  35. 8. Uncertainties • Climate Change • Energy • Food • Population • Over-urbanization • Migration • And…

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