'Pr b a' diaporamas de présentation

Introduction to Probability Theory

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Evidence and Theory

Evidence and Theory. From probability to the pragmatics of confirmation. Bayesianism. This has been the biggest, most influential program in thinking about evidence and how it supports scientific theories over the last 30 years or so.

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Conditional Probability

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Bayes Theorem

Bayes Theorem. Motivating Example: Drug Tests. A drug test gives a false positive 2% of the time (that is, 2% of those who test positive actually are not drug users) And the same test gives a false negative 1% of the time (that is, 1% of those who test negative actually are drug users)

206 views • 9 slides