'Proper scoring rule' diaporamas de présentation

Gaming Prediction Markets: Equilibrium Strategies with a Market Maker

Gaming Prediction Markets: Equilibrium Strategies with a Market Maker. Yilin Chen, Daniel M. Reeves, David M. Pennock , Robin D. Hanson, Lance Fortnow , Rica Gonen 2009 Presended by: Inna Kalp. Outline.

566 views • 43 slides

403 views • 33 slides

A dapting de Finetti's proper scoring rules for Eliciting Bayesian Beliefs to Prospect Theory

Joep Sonnemans. Theo Offerman. Gijs van de Kuilen. Peter P. Wakker. A dapting de Finetti's proper scoring rules for Eliciting Bayesian Beliefs to Prospect Theory. July 6, 2006 IAREP, Paris. Topic: Our chance estimates of France to become world-champion.

439 views • 33 slides

CPS 196.2 Proper scoring rules

281 views • 15 slides

Fair scores for ensemble forecasts Chris Ferro University of Exeter

Fair scores for ensemble forecasts Chris Ferro University of Exeter. 13th EMS Annual Meeting and 11th ECAM ( 10 September 2013 , Reading, UK). Evaluating ensemble forecasts. Multiple predictions, e.g. model simulations from several initial conditions.

279 views • 12 slides