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The Impact of the WSA Program on Reducing High School Dropout

The Impact of the WSA Program on Reducing High School Dropout. Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej UW-BHS Project Workshop October 19, 2007. Goals of the WSA Program. Encourage school redesign Reducing financial barriers, associated with college, for talented low income students

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The Impact of the WSA Program on Reducing High School Dropout

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  1. The Impact of the WSA Program on Reducing High School Dropout Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej UW-BHS Project Workshop October 19, 2007

  2. Goals of the WSA Program • Encourage school redesign • Reducing financial barriers, associated with college, for talented low income students • Provide mentoring and support for students in high school and college • Ultimately, increase college going rates and create a cadre of well educated citizens and leaders.

  3. Potential Program Targets: • High School • College Plans/Educational Goals • Academic Rigor (AP, Advanced, Honors, College Prep) • College Application Preparation (courses, SAT/ACT, FAFSA, College Applications) • High School Graduation • College • College Attendance for Talented Students from Disadvantaged Backgrounds • Minimize Debt and Workload for Students from Disadvantaged Backgrounds • Increase 4 year college going rates for students in WSA schools

  4. National Census Bureau Estimates HS Grad 84.9% 88.2% BA/BS 26.0% 30.9%

  5. The High School Completion Problem:% of Confirmed HS Graduates

  6. Research question: • Has the WSA program impacted high school graduation rates? • Has the program impacted graduation rates for any particular subpopulations? • Low Income Students • Poor performing students

  7. Administrative School Records • Enrolled students: (courses & grades) • Typically tabulated in aggregate data • Collaborative with school district research office • Possible to match students across years • Unique student ID and birthday • Major limitation: Can not distinguish dropouts and out of district transfers • Use multiple aggregate level indirect estimation techniques • We estimate ~3/5th of the ‘exiters’ either: 1) dropout or 2) transfer and eventually dropout. • Defined universe • First time 9th graders in school district • Track for 4 years and measure “net exits” • 4 cohorts (entered 9th grade in 96, 97, 98, & 99)

  8. Administrative School Records • 5 High Schools in the District • 3 WSA High Schools • 2 Non-WSA High Schools • Allows for a ~ ‘treatment-control’ analysis • Cohorts starting 9th grade from 1996 to 1999 • Allows for a ‘pre-post’ program effect analysis

  9. Independent Variables • Background: “Risk Factors” • Race/Ethnicity & Gender • Family Income (above/below 185% of poverty level) • Transferred into district for 9th grade • Transferred w/in district while in HS • Educational Experiences: • Enrolled in a WSA school • Over-age (indicator of prior retention) • 9th grade English—honors, ESL, special, regular • First semester 9th grade GPA

  10. Lexis-diagram of HS Progression

  11. Four Year High School Graduation By WSA and Program Implementation 45 – 43 = 2% Increase 48 -52 = 4% Decline

  12. Four Year HS Grad Rates for Low Income Students by WSA/ Non-WSA School, Pre & Post Program Implementation Non-WSA Low Income 40–41 = 1% decrease WSA Low Income 40–37 = 3% increase 29% 50% 30%a 52% Post-Implementation Pre-Implementation aPercent of Overall Population

  13. Multivariate Analysis • Logistic Regression • Outcomes: • Made normal progression & graduated in 4 years • Graduated in 4 years • Estimated Predicted Probabilities for an African American male from a low SES family, with a C average in 9th grade, and a history of transferring schools

  14. Figure 1. Predicted Probability of an African American male from a low SES family, with a C average in 9th grade, and a history of transferring schools remaining on-track and graduating from high school in 4 years. 96-00 97-01 98-02 99-03 96-00 97-01 98-02 99-03

  15. Figure 2. Predicted Probability of an African American male from a low SES family, with a C average in 9th grade, and a history of transferring schools graduating from high school in 4 years. 96-00 97-01 98-02 99-03 96-00 97-01 98-02 99-03

  16. Conclusion • Tentative positive effect on high school graduation • Most likely due to promise of scholarship • Should continue—maybe strengthen—over time as program is fully implemented • No effect on sub-populations of interest for these cohorts

  17. Next Steps • Add additional cohorts • Examine whether the program is increasing HS grad rates for specific at risk sub-groups. • e.g. Does attending a WSA high school less than likely hood of dropout for poor performers in 9th grade? • Examine in which grades is the program effecting HS attrition (9th, 10th, 11th, or 12th grade)

  18. Thank you! Direct Questions To: Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej nickpc@u.washington.edu

  19. Four Year High School Graduation By Family Income for WSA/ Non-WSA Schools Pre & Post Program Implementation Non-WSA High Income 51–57 = 6% decrease Non-WSA Low Income 40–41 = 1% decrease WSA High Income 50 - 49 = 1% Increase WSA Low Income 40–37 = 3% increase 70%a 48% 30% 52% 71% 50% 29% 50% Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation aPercent of Overall Population

  20. Pattern of Change Expected

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