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Analysis of the ultimate space storm A Scientific and Operational Framework for ES0803

COST Action ES0803. Analysis of the ultimate space storm A Scientific and Operational Framework for ES0803. M. Messerotti 1.2 1 INAF-Astronomical Observatory of Trieste 2 Department of Physics , University of Trieste. Aim of the Project. DEFINE THE ULTIMATE SPACE STORM

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Analysis of the ultimate space storm A Scientific and Operational Framework for ES0803

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  1. COST Action ES0803 Analysisof the ultimate spacestormA Scientific and OperationalFrameworkfor ES0803 M. Messerotti1.2 1INAF-AstronomicalObservatoryof Trieste 2DepartmentofPhysics, Universityof Trieste MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

  2. Aimof the Project • DEFINE THE ULTIMATE SPACE STORM • SIMULATE TRIGGERS, PERTURBATIONS AND EFFECTS • ASSESS AND IMPROVE RESOURCES • DISSEMINATE OUTCOMES WG1 WG1 WG1 WG2 WG3 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

  3. DEFINE THE ULTIMATE SPACE STORM • IDENTIFY THE MOST UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS AT: • THE SUN • THE IPM • THE GEOSPACE • IDENTIFY THE MOST ADVERSE EFFECTS IN: • THE IPM • THE GEOSPACE WG1 SG1.1 WG1 SG1.1 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

  4. WORST CONDITIONS AT THE SUN • Persistent, magneticallycomplex, productive AR(s) • OutstandingFlares / SeriesofFlares • SPE(s) / SCR • Gamma, X, EUV, UV, Radio Outburst(s) • Halo/Earth-directed CME(s) • Fast Solar Wind Streams WG1 SG1.1 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

  5. WORST CONDITIONS AT THE IPM • Seriesofperturbations: • Propagationanalysis • Radio signaturesidentification and analysis WG1 SG1.1 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

  6. WORST CONDITIONS AT THE GEOSPACE Analysisof: • Magneticcoupling • Perturbations • Effects in: • Magnetosphere • Ionosphere • Thermosphere • Troposphere • Ground WG1 SG1.1 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

  7. PRODUCTS • 4D MAP OF EFFECTS characterizedby: • SEVERITY LEVEL • GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION • Thisis a key aspecttoraise the awarenessoffundingagencies, stakeholders and decisionmakers WG1 SG1.1 WG3 SG3.2 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

  8. TRIGGERS, PERTURBATIONSAND EFFECTS MODELLING • SIMULATION OF THE PHENOMENOLOGY VIA AVAILABLE MODELLING RESOURCES: • CCMC • SPECIFIC MODELS • OTHER WG1 SG1.1 WG1 SG1.2 WG2 SG2.1 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

  9. PRODUCTS • SURVEY OF EXISTING RESOURCES • APPLICATION OF EXISTING RESOURCES • INDICATIONS ABOUT IMPROVEMENTS AND NEW REQUIREMENTS • MAP OF MODELLING RESOURCES parameterizedaccordingtotheirsuitability and effectivenessfor the defined goal WG2 SG2.1 WG1 SG1.1 WG1 SG1.2 WG1 SG1.3 WG2 SG2.1 WG2 SG2.3 WG3 SG3.2 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

  10. ASSESS, IMPROVE & SUGGEST WG1 SG1.1 WG1 SG1.2 WG1 SG1.3 WG2 SG2.1 WG2 SG2.3 WG3 SG3.2 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

  11. CONCLUSIONS The project: • Fulfills the ES0803 MoU • IsnotanMoUreplacement, butanextendeduse case involvingmany (butnotall) WG SG activities • Representsan innovative approach • Generatesoriginalscientific and appliedproducts • Has a greatpotential impact to the fundingagencies, stakeholders and decisionmakers • Is a valuablescientificbasisforeducation and outreach MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

  12. The ultimate space storm: characterization and modelling 6th EuropeanSpaceWeather Week 16-20 November, 2009 - Brugge, Belgium http://sidc.oma.be/esww6/ SPLINTER MEETING Room “Bach” 16:30-18:00 Contact: messerotti@oats.inaf.it ESWW6 Brugge BE M. Messerotti

  13. ESWW6 Splinter Description Theoretically, the ultimate space storm can be defined as the set of most severe perturbative manifestations originated by the most unfavourable concurrent conditions at the Sun, in the interplanetary space and in geospace. In practice, the above definition has to be extensively and quantitatively detailed in terms of solar weather, interplanetary weather and geospace weather to asset the physical drivers and to evaluate the relevant effects. This project has been started in the framework of COST Action ES0803 "Developing space weather products and services in Europe", but it has to be expanded in order to reach its ambitious goals. In fact, the aim of this splinter meeting is to involve the interested communities in creating a scientific and operational framework to achieve the goal of quantifying via the present and forthcoming modelling tools the worst concurrent space weather effects ever experienced by technological and biological systems, as well as to produce 4D maps of such effects as a working tool for evaluating the maximum risk involved in the various geospace sub-domains and technological sub-systems. The splinter is organized as an open discussion, but short presentations on key topics/use cases suitable to stimulate the discussion are welcome. Key topics: Solar weather (Persistent, magnetically complex, productiveAR(s); Outstanding flares/Series of flares; SPE(s)/SCR; Gamma, X, EUV, UV, RadioOutburst(s); Halo/Earth-directed CME(s); FastSolarWindStreams); Interplanetary weather (Propagating perturbations identification and analysis); Geospace weather (Magnetic coupling; Perturbations; Effects in Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Troposphere-Ground); Advanced modelling tools. ESWW6 Brugge BE M. Messerotti

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