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Ifra International Press Conference 2007 Vienna, 12 September 2007

Ifra International Press Conference 2007 Vienna, 12 September 2007. Jochen Dieckow Ifra Research Washingtonplatz • 64287 Darmstadt / Germany dieckow@ifra.com •  +49-(0)6151/733736 •  +49-(0)6151/733872 www.ifra.com. You can call it choice. Source:mediaedge_cia.

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Ifra International Press Conference 2007 Vienna, 12 September 2007

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  1. Ifra International Press Conference 2007 Vienna, 12 September 2007 Jochen Dieckow Ifra Research Washingtonplatz • 64287 Darmstadt / Germany dieckow@ifra.com •  +49-(0)6151/733736 •  +49-(0)6151/733872 www.ifra.com

  2. You can call it choice Source:mediaedge_cia

  3. Scope of „Where NEWS?“ How will media usage change in the coming years? • Three years project • Outside-in perspective • Fully future oriented (5, 10 and 15 years ahead) • Independent project, not sponsored by industry • Steered by expert working group • Co-operation with international institutes and universities

  4. Society Technology General Developments Media Users Media technology Framework Conditions Readers Communication technology Advertisers Markets Print Production technology Platforms, Channels Market Players

  5. What are the conditions? • Focus on saturated markets (North America and Europe) • Combines a number of sub-projects on different topics • Combination of trend research and scenario development • Results • Research Reports (English) • Executive Summaries (six languages) • Ifra Events

  6. 1 Reports 1 and 2 describe the starting point

  7. 2 An Industry in change: Business Models and Strategies

  8. 3 Media and Communication Technology

  9. Passive Separate Standalone Aggregated User-generated content beginning to compete with professional content Content distribution via Internet, but with separated and asymmetric networks Pool of digital devices becoming inter­connected but with limited content targeting Separate content consumption experience: passive TV service and interactive PC usage for Internet Transport Network Content Device Consumption Interactive Converged Networked Personalized Increased competition from user- and community created interactive content Symmetric high-bandwidth broadband networks (Fibre, 4G) with a variety of service packages Home media servers fed by content providers acting as staging areas; content transparently accessed by many devices Users will access personalized channels allowing on-demand consumption of content and community interaction The change of paradigm

  10. Major trends • Ubiquitous Computing in a Broadband World • Triple Play and Beyond • The Digitally Enriched Reality • Towards User-Centric Computing • Spread of the Service-Oriented-Paradigm • Consumers Becoming Collaborative Producers • More News with Less Value • Spotlighting Information Islands • From Rigid Media to “Intertainment” Services

  11. Technology roadmap

  12. 4 Demography and Socio-Economics

  13. Development of age groups in North America and Europe 2005 - 2020

  14. Key findings • Progressive ageing • Continuing migration • Further urbanisation • Rising or stagnating geographic mobility respectively • Continuing household fragmentation and declining significance of traditional families • Growing income spread • Increasing education and qualification differences • Rising proportion of employed with shorter individual working hours

  15. Urbanisation will increase

  16. 5 Economic & Social Framework

  17. Major trends • Advancing globalisation through market deregulation • Continuing growth of the world economy – below average dynamism in North America and Europe • Increasing environmental regulation • Deregulation of framework conditions for legislation governing the media • But more restrictions for advertising • Approximation of education systems: more time and money involved

  18. 6 Drivers of Change in Media Channels

  19. The daily reach for Digg, YouTube, Flickr and Wikipedia 2002 – 2006 (Alexa). Figure 10. The daily reach for Digg, YouTube, Flickr and Wikipedia 2002 – 2006 (Alexa). The daily reach for Digg, YouTube, Flickr and Wikipedia 2002 – 2006 (Alexa).

  20. Key trends • Consumer generated content • Media as social amplifiers • Content aggregation and search • Ubiquity and mobility • Commoditization of media • Context awareness • Convergence and divergence

  21. 7 Future Newspaper Printing Technology

  22. 8 Scenario development – October ‘07 • Discussion and evaluation of existing Where NEWS? research reports • Development of key factors for the future development of media usage • Group work: Development of different scenarios in different groups • Presentation and discussion of scenarios, their meaning for the progress of the Where NEWS? project • Report on developed scenarios as Where NEWS? research report No. 8 in March 2008

  23. Why Scenario development? • No look into the glass bowl • It is a means to detail and describe possible futures which may come true – or not • The objective is not correct predictions, but an increase in awareness • Even though the details may remain unknown, you can train and prepare your organisation to better deal with the future challenges!

  24. Thank you very much for your attention! Jochen Dieckow Ifra Research Washingtonplatz • 64287 Darmstadt / Germany dieckow@ifra.com •  +49-(0)6151/733736 •  +49-(0)6151/733872 www.ifra.com

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