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West Lafayette Schools Enrollment Projections. Prepared by Indiana Business Research Center Kelley School of Business Indiana University December 2002. Basic changes in enrollment. A cohort is a group of students of born in the same year.
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West Lafayette Schools Enrollment Projections Prepared by Indiana Business Research Center Kelley School of Business Indiana University December 2002
Basic changes in enrollment A cohort is a group of students of born in the same year. The movement of 600 current students from the 1st to the 2nd grade is an inter-cohort transition.Where there had been 500 students in the 2nd grade, the new cohort brings in an additional 100 students,raising the 2nd grade enrollment to 600. +350 The change within the cohort from year 1 to year 2 results in an increase of 250 students. This is the intra-cohortprogression. The total change (350) is composed of these two elements (100+250).
Enrollment projection model Current enrollment Transition multipliers Continuing students Future enrollment Historic enrollment Progression multipliers Entering students New housing Demographic change in existing housing
Considerations concerning West Lafayette’s Housing & Enrollment Growth
HISTORICAL GROWTH WILL BE ALTERED BY : • West Lafayette rapidly reaching full single-family residential development. • Purdue University plans no further on-campus housing at present. 600 units of married student housing will be phased out over the next few years. • Existing older single-family housing in West Lafayette is relatively expensive by Indiana standards.
COUPLED WITH: • High academic standards of West Lafayette Schools is an attraction for families. • New apartment complexes northwest of Purdue are very viable competition for students traditionally drawn to rental conversions in the immediate campus area. • The city’s efforts to limit rental conversions and occupancy density. • The efforts of non-profit neighborhood based organizations to promote property rehabilitation and home ownership.
RESULTS IN: • An end to enrollment expansion tied to new housing starts. • The probability of a continued slowdown in single-family homes being converted to student rentals. • The majority of new family households moving into the West Lafayette Schools district being older than the norm. • Enrollment at the K-1 entry levels will be stable with limited enrollment growth coming at the later elementary and junior high grades.
IMPLIES? • Total enrollment numbers being stable over the remainder of the decade. • A potential need for re-allocation of "bricks and mortar" resources to meet changing enrollment patterns. • The possibility of some enrollment decline should Purdue elect to admit larger numbers of students.
Housing alternatives • Net Survey – based on interviews with knowledgeable developers and housing experts as well as observations by IBRC staff • Zero Survey – reflects the potential impact of Purdue increasing enrollment at mid-1990’s levels. • Gross Survey – A survey for comparison purposes only showing enrollment patterns if there is no growth in rental of exisiting single-family housing.
West Lafayette Enrollment by gradeNet Survey Actual Projected
