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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 09, 2016. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml. Outline.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 09, 2016 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing minor deficits across southern India, and major deficits over large parts of Australia and southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, the Philippines and eastern Papua New Guinea. However, northeastern India, coastal southeastern China and many parts of Indonesia received above normal rainfall.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was deficient over Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines islands, central eastern Australia. The exception is over northeastern India, southeastern China, and parts of Indonesia.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, rainfall was deficient over east countries Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, different parts of Indonesian islands. But above normal rainfall fell over northwestern Australia, southeastern and far northeastern China.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing minor deficits across southern India, and major deficits over large parts of Australia and southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, the Philippines and eastern Papua New Guinea. However, northeastern India, coastal southeastern China and many parts of Indonesia received above normal rainfall. For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was deficient over Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines islands, central eastern Australia. The exception is over northeastern India, southeastern China, and parts of Indonesia. In this past week, rainfall was deficient over east countries Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, different parts of Indonesian islands. But above normal rainfall fell over northwestern Australia, southeastern and far northeastern China. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal rainfall along the Gangetic plains, Nepal, and along the Arabian coast in western peninsular India. It is highly unlikely to term this as the seasonal SW summer monsoon onset for this year, since that does not happen climatologically until early June.
