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Overview and Basic Data R&W Chapters 2, 3, 11

Overview and Basic Data R&W Chapters 2, 3, 11. Skip Figures 2.3, 2.4 pages 15, 16. Dahi on Arab Revolts. Link to canvas: http://canvas.umd.umich.edu. Link to WDI. Link to syllabus . MENA map. Map 3.2 pp. 50-51 2 nd Ed . of R&W. MENA Population Density.

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Overview and Basic Data R&W Chapters 2, 3, 11

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  1. Overview and Basic DataR&W Chapters 2, 3, 11 Skip Figures 2.3, 2.4 pages 15, 16 Dahi on Arab Revolts Link to canvas: http://canvas.umd.umich.edu Link to WDI Link to syllabus

  2. MENA map

  3. Map 3.2 pp. 50-51 2nd Ed. of R&W. MENA Population Density

  4. Map 3.1 pp. 46-48 R&W 2nded. MENA Precipitation

  5. Muslim Population Outside MENA, ~2000. (In millions.) Bangladesh 90-100 China 40-100 Europe 5-20 France 2-2.5 Germany 1.5-2 U.K. 1 India 100-120 Indonesia 150-180 Malaysia 15 Nigeria 30-60 Pakistan 100 US 2-3 [Israel < 0.8 ] Total number of adherents to Islam is about 1.5 billion (1 to 1.8). There are more Muslims outside of the Middle East than inside it. Recall: Egypt, Iran and Turkey each have populations of ~70 million, while that of Saudi Arabia is about 30 million. Data selected by m.t. from the array of estimates in <adherents.com>

  6. Shi’ite populations

  7. Shi’a Shrines in Iraq & Iran

  8. Yemen-Ethno-religious Groups Source: Juan Cole’s blog: December, 2010.

  9. Distribution and Density of Kurdish People, ~ 1990 World pop 25-35 m; 11-15m in Turkey, 5m in each of Iran and Iraq, 1m Syria, 1.5 m in West Europe. Is 1/3 of total pop. in Iraq, 1/6 of Turkey Source for popl estimates: Encyclopedia of the Orient

  10. “Berbers” in Northern Africa Total ~35 million Morocco 19 m, 13m Algeria, 2.5m Western Europe

  11. Percentage Christian Population Source: religiouspopulation.com Overall, was perhaps 20% in 1900, and is 5% now. Over one million Armenians died in the massacres during the 1910s.

  12. The Three Arab Worlds Source: Rauch and Kostyshak, JEP Summer, 2009

  13. Development strategies (Chapter 2 of R&W) Agricultural export: Egypt and cotton. Iraq somewhat. Raw materials: mining (Morocco, Jordan); petroleum (Algeria, Libya, Gulf – Iraq, Iran, Arabian peninsula except Yemen). Import Substituting Industrialization: Turkey until about 1970 Manufactured Exports: Morocco, Tunisia (export processing), Turkey more recently. Israel has excelled. Service exports: Lebanon, Jordan, Dubai and some other Gulf.

  14. Country Groupings Based on Resource Endowments in MENA p. 186 Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking the Employment Potential in the MENA page186

  15. Patterns/Policies of National Economic Growth and Structural Change (R&W pp. 67-68) • Coupon clippers (of oil rents): Libya, Kuwait, Oman, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar [rentier economies] • Oil Industrializers: Iraq, Iran, Algeria, Saudi Arabia • Watchmakers (limited resources, so invest in human capital and exporting of skilled labor intensive manufactured products): Israel, Jordan, Tunisia, Syria • NICs (large populations, sufficient land, good industrial development): Turkey, Egypt, Morocco • Agro-poor: Sudan and Yemen • Lebanon is apparently a case all to itself

  16. Political Regimes: Chapter 11 of R&W Socialist Republics: Turkey under Ataturk, Egypt under Nasser Radicals: Algeria, Syria, Iraq (especially 60s to 80s); Libya, PLO Liberal Monarchies: Jordan, Morocco, Iran (under Pahlavis), Arabia Democracies: Turkey, Israel, Lebanon Islamic Republics: Iran, Sudan

  17. Political Regimes: Chapter 11 of R&W Socialist Republics: Turkey under Ataturk, Egypt under Nasser nothing contemporary here Radicals: Algeria, Syria, Iraq (especially 60s to 80s); Libya, PLO Liberal??Monarchies: Jordan, Morocco, Iran (under Pahlavis), Arabia more history Democracies: Turkey, Israel, Lebanon, Palestine? Islamic Republics: Iran, Sudan Tunisia was/is a sort of democracy

  18. Ross on Oil and Democracy in MENA Oil hinders the development of democracy because: 1) monarchs can buy off the citizens (e.g., Saudi Arabia) 2) all this money allows the regime to keep finances secret low taxes high benefits 3) monarchs can even buy off the military Comments: a) Some monarchs have esteem for historical/religious reasons: Morocco, Saudi Arabia, b) some monarchies instituted slow democratic change: Morocco, Jordan. Ongoing in Kuwait. c) Michael Ross has also written on how women’s rights are lower in oil-exporting states.

  19. Non-Nationals as Share of Labor Force Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking Employment

  20. Persian Gulf

  21. Dahi on Causes of the Arab Revolts Political: anti-authoritarianism. This is very clear Economic: True? To what extent? AHDR had been critical of lack of economic progress, worsening distribution of income IMF/World Bank had pushed structural adjustment policies, and economic liberalization. Expansion of FDI. (Tunisia & Egypt) States had not been successful ‘development states’ such as in Japan, Korea, etc. In contrast, several unhelpful policy decisions: Fighting dissent with prison etc. (context of anti-terrorism 9/11 campaign Alienated private sector business elites with ‘crony capitalism’ Starkly true in Tunisia and Egypt. Broader discussion of the decline of the authoritarian populist social contract

  22. Table 3.1 p. 46 (R&W). Population and GDP/Cap

  23. GDP/Person, average 2007-2011 (US$ 2005) [WDI]

  24. GNI/Capita 2005, PPP$ Source WDI

  25. Comparisons: year is 2002 Source: WDI

  26. MENA: Real GDP/Capita. US$ 2000 prices Saudi A. Semi-log graph

  27. Turkey: Real GDP/capita, 1913-2000 Data: Maddison (1995) for 1913, Turkish Gov’t 1926-1960, WDI

  28. Egypt: Real GDP/capita, 1913-2000 Data: Maddison (1995) for 1913, Maddison (2000) 1950-1960, WDI

  29. Fig. 3.3 p. 52 (R&W). Crude Oil Prices, 2004 US$

  30. Saudi Arabia: Real GDP/capita, 1950-2000 Data: Maddison (2000) 1950-1960, WDI

  31. Iran: Real GDP/capita, 1950-2000 Data: Maddison (2000) 1950-1973, WDI

  32. GDP/cap: Kuwait

  33. Lebanon: Real GDP/capita

  34. Palestine-Israel-West Bank & Gaza Semi-log graph. Source: mt’scalculations, based on Maddison and WDI [PBS]. Merged at 1948

  35. The Human Development Index, 1997 Source: Arab Human Development Report

  36. Human Development Index HDI: A composite index measuring average achievement in three basic dimensions of human development—a long and healthy life, knowledge and a decent standard of living.

  37. Human Development Index: 1.0 is Maximum Link to HDI http://hdrstats.undp.org/indicators/1.html

  38. Index of Freedom: 1 is highestsource: Freedom House F – free; PF partly free; NF not free.

  39. Illiteracy, % 1950s 1970s 2000 1950s 1970s 2000 Algeria 83 74 33 Bahrain 87 60 12 Egypt 75 62 45 Iran 87 64 24 Iraq 89 76 44 Israel - 12 5 Jordan - 46 10 Kuwait 66 40 18 Lebanon - 37 14 Libya 87 50 20 Morocco 86 79 51 Oman - 81 28 Qatar - 42 19 Saudi Arabia- 67 24 Sudan 88 85 42 Syria - 60 26 Tunisia 84 62 29 Turkey 68 40 15 UAE - 44 24 WB & Gaza - - 14 Yemen - 86 54 Source: WDI

  40. Figure 3.7 p. 62 (R&W) Growth of Manufacturing Value Added

  41. Table 3.9 p. 66. Structure of Merchandise Exports, 1990 and 2003

  42. Table 3.10 p. 67 (R&W). Structure of Imports, 1970 and 2003

  43. Table 3.3 p. 59 (R&W). Structure of Production, by Sector

  44. Table 3.7 p. 63 (R&W). Sectoral Distribution of the Labor Force

  45. Main Ideas of Clement Henry, “Clash of Globalizations: Obstacles to Development” (Old economic vision of) WW Rostow, “Take-off to sustained econ growth” Evident Political Problems to MENA Growth: Arab-Israeli conflict Intra-Arab conflicts Beyond that, three other debates: Military Expenditures Oil rents Colonial Legacy Good discussion of how Globalization and its reforms have their negative sides, and how Political Liberalization had been reversed by 2001 Arab Human Development Report: key deficiencies in MENA Freedom Women’s Empowerment Human Knowledge capabilities

  46. Population, in thousands Table 1 in handout

  47. GDP per capita, 1990 PPP $:

  48. 1913 1920 1930 1950 1973 1998 Algeria 6,738 7,307 8,963 12,136 35,814 81,948 Bahrain - - - 242 1,046 2,846 Egypt 8,891 - - 15,224 36,249 140,546 Iran - - - 28,128 171,466 274,695 Iraq - - - 7,041 39,042 24,564 Israel - - - 3,623 30,839 85,520 Jordan - - - 933 3,999 18,313 Kuwait - - - 4,181 23,847 21,565 Lebanon - - - 3,313 8,915 12,077 Libya - - - - 18,29825,398 Morocco 3,630 4,683 6,739 13,598 28,800 78,397 Oman - - - 304 2,809 17,179 Qatar - - - 763 6,228 5,091 Saudi Arabia - - - 8,610 73,601 170,972 Syria - - - 8,418 27,846 96,112 Tunisia 1,651 2,089 2,786 3,920 12,051 39,306 Turkey 18,090 16,587 29,124 38,408 144,483 423,018 UAE - - - 1,130 9,739 31,913 W Bank + Gaza - - - 965 2,455 14,807 Yemen - - - 4,353 12,431 37,656 Palestine - 325 584 4,588 - - of which: Jews - 67 237 3,468 - - Arabs and others - 258 348 1,120 - - GDP in 1990 PPP $ (billion)

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