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LASP seminar , 18 October 2011, Boulder

Multi-Model Comparisons of the Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to the SORCE Solar Irradiance Data Set within the SPARC-SOLARIS Activity. LASP seminar , 18 October 2011, Boulder.

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LASP seminar , 18 October 2011, Boulder

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  1. Multi-Model Comparisons of the Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to the SORCE Solar Irradiance Data Set within the SPARC-SOLARIS Activity LASP seminar, 18 October 2011, Boulder K. Matthes (1,2), J.D. Haigh(3), F. Hansen (1,2), J.W. Harder(4), S. Ineson(5), K. Kodera(6,7), U. Langematz (2), D.R. Marsh (8), A.W. Merkel (4), P.A. Newman (9), S. Oberländer (2), A.A. Scaife(5), R.S. Stolarski(9,10), W.H. Swartz(11) (1) Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany; (2) Freie Universität Berlin, Institute für Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany; (3) Imperial College, London, UK; (4) LASP, CU, Boulder, USA; (5) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK; (6) Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan; (7)STEL University of Nagoya, Nagoya, Japan; (8) NCAR, Boulder USA; (9) NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, USA; (10)John Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA; (11) JHU Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, USA

  2. Outline Introduction/Motivation: Solar influences on climate SOLARIS projectandobjectives Uncertainty in solar irradiancedata Preliminaryresultsfromthe multi-model comparison Summary Outlook

  3. Introduction/Motivation: natural vs. anthropogenicclimatefactors IPCC (2007)

  4. Solar Influences on Climate • Reviews in Geophysics 2010 • (open access sponsored by SCOSTEP) • Introduction • 2.Solar Variability • Causes of TSI variability • Decadal-scale solar variability • Century-scale variability • TSI and Galactic cosmic rays • 3. Climate Observations • Decadal variations in the stratosphere • Decadal variations in the troposphere • Decadal variations at the Earth’s surface • Century-scale variations • 4. Mechanisms • TSI • UV • Centennial-scale irradiance variations • Charged particle effects • 5.Solar Variability and Global Climate Change • 6. Summary / Future Directions

  5. Solar Variability (1975-2010) Sunspot number F10.7 cm flux Magnesium ii Open solar flux Galactic cosmic ray counts Total solar irradiance Geomagnetic Ap index Gray et al. (2010)

  6. Climate Observations ....beginning with the pioneering work of Karin Labitzke and Harry van Loon Correlations F10.7cm flux vs. 30hPa temperatures in July 30hPa Heights North Pole vs. F10.7 cm flux - February Labitzke, Labitzke and van Loon ....

  7. Tropospheric winds NCEP Zonal Mean Wind (m/s) (1979-2002) Schematic of Jetstream 11-year Solar Signal (Max-Min) blocking events => cold winds from the east over Europe blocking events longer lived for solar minima (Barriepedro et al., 2008) Haigh, Blackburn, Simpson

  8. Observed Annual Mean Solar Signal in Ozone (%/100 f10.7) and Temperature (K/100 f10.7) SSU/MSU4 (1979-2005) +2% +2% +2% SAGE I/II Data (1979-2005) +1K Randel et al. (2009) 95% significant Randel and Wu (2007) Solar Maximum: More UV radiation => higher temperatures More ozone => higher temperatures

  9. Climate Observations 11-year Solar Signal (Max-Min) Composites Dec/Jan/Feb Sea surface temperature: 11 Max peak years Precipitation: 3 Max peak years van Loon, Meehl, White

  10. Surface Temperatures: IPCC Solar variations cannot explain observed 20th century global temperature changes long-term trend in solar activity appears to be decreasing, as we come out of the current ‘Grand Maximum’ anthropogenic + natural forcings natural forcings only

  11. Climate Observations: Summary Lots of examples of 11-yr solar influence in the stratosphere, troposphere and at the surface (e.g., temperatures (LvL), SSTs, mean sea level pressure, zonal and vertical winds, tropical circulations: Hadley, Walker, annular modes, clouds, precipitation), but predominantly regional response and sporadic in time. No evidence that solar variations are a major factor in driving recent climate change; if anything, radiative forcing looks as though it is reducing as we possibly come out of the current grand maximum. BUT, as we start to predict climate on a regional basis, it will be important to include solar variations in our models.

  12. Climate Models: Majority of coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models include only total solar irradiance (TSI) variations, i.e. the so-called ‘bottom-up’ mechanism. More recent climate models now include the ‘top-down’ mechanism via the stratosphere. Some specialist models also now include charged particle effects, e.g. energetic particle fluxes, solar proton events etc.

  13. Mechanisms: Sun - Climate Gray et al. (2010)

  14. “Top-down mechanism” based on Kodera and Kuroda (2002) Gray et al. (2010)

  15. EPF Stratosphericwaves (direct solar effect) Troposphericwaves (response to stratospheric changes) „Top-down“: Dynamical Interactions and Transfer totheTroposphere10-day meanwave-meanflowinteractions (Max-Min) u Matthes et al. (2006)

  16. Modeled Signal near Earth SurfaceMonthlymeanDifferencesgeop. Height (Max-Min) – 1000hPa + + - - + + ΔT +2K Matthes et al. (2006) Significanttroposphericeffects (AO-likepattern) resultfromchanges in waveforcing in thestratosphereandtropospherewhichchangesthe meridional circulationandsurfacepressure

  17. SPARC-SOLARIS Goal:investigate solar influence on climatewithspecialfocus on theimportanceofmiddleatmospherechemicalanddynamicalprocessesandtheircouplingtotheEarth‘ssurfacewith CCMs, mechanisticmodelsandobservations • Activities: • detailedcoordinatedstudies on „top-down“ solar UV and „bottom-up“ TSI mechanismsas well asimpactofhighenergyparticles • solar irradiancedatarecommendations • (CCMVal, CMIP5) SOLARIS

  18. SOLARIS Activities 2006 2010 • regularworkshops: 2006 (Boulder, CO/USA), 2010 (Potsdam, Germany), • 8-12 Oct 2012 (Boulder, CO/USA) • sidemeetings: 2005 (IAGA conference, Toulouse, France), 2008 (SPARC, • Bologna, Italy), 2010 (SCOSTEP, Berlin, Germany), • 2011 (IUGG, Melbourne, Australia) • newwebsite: http://sparcsolaris.gfz-potsdam.de

  19. SOLARIS Objectives • What is the characteristic of the observed solar climate signal? • What is the mechanism for solar influence on climate? (dynamical and chemical response in the middle atmosphere and its transfer down to the Earth’s surface) • How do the different natural and anthropogenic forcings interact? (solar, ENSO, QBO, volcanoes, CO2)

  20. SOLARIS Experiments andAnalyses Coordinated model runstoinvestigatealiasingof different factors in thetropicallowerstratosphere Coordinated model runstostudytheuncertainty in solar forcing Analysis of CMIP5 simulations

  21. Uncertainty in Solar Irradiance Data 2004-2007 Lean vs. SIM/SORCE Solar Max-Min Lean vs. Krivova Haigh et al., Nature (2010) Lean et al. (2005) Krivova et al. (2006) • larger variation in Krivova data in 200-300 and 300-400nm range • SORCE measurements from 2004 through 2007 show very different spectral distribution (in-phase with solar cycle in UV, out-of-phase in VIS and NIR) • => Implications for solar heating and ozone chemistry

  22. 1. Compare Existing Model RunsParticipating Models Caveat: all the models used a slightly different experimental setup, so it won’t be possible to do an exact comparison

  23. Differences in Experimental Setup

  24. Experimental Design Time series of F10.7cm solar flux 2004: “solar max” (declining phase of SC23) „solar max“ 2004 „solar min“ 2007 2007: “solar min” (close to minimum of SC23)

  25. JanuaryMeanDifferences(25N-25S) ShortwaveHeating Rate (K/d) Temperature (K) Pressure (hPa) Pressure (hPa) Height (km) Height (km) • larger shortwave heating rate and temperature differences for SORCE than NRL SSI data • FUB-EMAC and HadGEMonly include radiation, not ozone effects NRL SSI SORCE

  26. JanuaryMeanDifferences(25N-25S) Ozone (%) Temperature (K) Pressure (hPa) Pressure (hPa) Height (km) Height (km) • larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for • SORCE than NRL SSI data • height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models NRL SSI SORCE

  27. Shortwave Heating Rate Differences January (K/d) HadGEM IC2D WACCM EMAC-FUB GEOS NRL SSI SORCE • NRL SSI shortwave heating rates: 0.2 to 0.3 K/d • SORCE shortwave heating rates: 0.7 to >1.0 K/d (3x NRL SSI response)

  28. TemperatureDifferencesJanuary (K) HadGEM IC2D WACCM EMAC-FUB GEOS NRL SSI SORCE • NRL SSI temperatures: 0.5 to 1.0 K (stratopause) • SORCE temperatures: 2.5 to 4.0 K (4-5x NRL SSI response) • colder polar stratosphere

  29. OzoneDifferencesJanuary (%) HadGEM IC2D WACCM EMAC-FUB GEOS NRL SSI SORCE • larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for • SORCE than NRL SSI data • height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models

  30. Zonal Wind DifferencesJanuary (m/s) HadGEM IC2D WACCM EMAC-FUB GEOS NRL SSI SORCE • consistently stronger zonal wind signals for SORCE than NRL SSI data • wind signal in SORCE data characterized by strong westerly winds at polar latitudes, and significant and similar signals in NH troposphere

  31. SORCE Wind Differences NH Winter HadGEM IC2D WACCM EMAC-FUB GEOS Dec Jan Feb

  32. SORCE Geopot. Height Differences January (gpdm) HadGEM WACCM EMAC-FUB GEOS 500 hPa NAO/AO positive signal during solar max strongest for HadGEM and WACCM 100 hPa 10 hPa

  33. Solar Cycle and the NAO Solar Max: NAO positive (highindex) • Colderstratosphere => stronger NAO, • i.e. strongerIcelandlow, higher • pressureoverAzores • amplifiedstormtrack • mild conditionsover northern • Europe andeastern US • => dry conditions in themediterranean

  34. Solar Min Surface Pressure Signal Model (HadGEM) Observations (Reanalyses) 25 (50%) of interannual standarddeviation 90 (95%) significances Ineson et al. (2011)

  35. Solar Cycle and the NAO Solar Min: NAO negative (lowindex) Solar Max: NAO positive (highindex) Matthes (2011)

  36. Summary • Consistently larger amplitudes in 2004 to 2007 in solar signals for SORCE than for NRL SSI data in temperature, ozone, shortwave heating rates, zonal winds and geopotential heights • Larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data; height for negative ozone signal in upper stratosphere differs between models • Solar cycle effect on AO/NAO contributes to substantial fraction of typical year-to-year variations and therefore is a potentially useful source of improved decadal climate predictability (Ineson et al. (2011))  Results for the SORCE spectral irradiance data are provisional because of the need for continued degradation correction validation and because of the short length of the SORCE time series which does not cover a full solar cycle

  37. Outlook Next step: coordinated sensitivity experiments for a typical solar max (2002) and solar min (2008) spectrum from the NRL SSI and the SORCE data to investigate the atmospheric and surface climate response between the models in a more consistent way => White paper until early December, experiments to be started early 2012 in order to be ready for the SOLARIS/HEPPA workshop 8-12 October 2012 here in Boulder!

  38. Thankyouverymuch! Estes Park/RMNP, 10-15-2011

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