Using Retrofit and Replacement Strategies to Dump Dirty Diesels in the Coming Decade

1. Richard Kassel Rkassel@nrdc.org Better Air Quality Conference Agra, India December 2004 Using Retrofit and Replacement Strategies to Dump Dirty Diesels in the Coming Decade

2. The Natural Resources Defense Council is… • A US-based, non-profit environmental NGO founded in 1970 with more than one million members and activists • NRDC led the campaign to ban lead in the U.S. in the 1970s—and helped initiate global campaign to eliminate lead in the 1990s • Since 1993, NRDC’s “Dump Dirty Diesels Campaign” in the United States has led to cleaner buses and trucks in New York and California, aggressive diesel fuel and emissions national standards in the U.S.—and is now working globally

3. Public Health Threats From Urban Diesels Must Be Addressed Now • Today’s diesel engines will continue to emit particulate matter, nitrogen oxides and toxic emissions for years to come • WHO: PM kills 800,000 people worldwide annually • US: Diesel PM causes 125,000 cancers annually • From NYC to Delhi, urban diesels create disproportionate environmental impacts • In New York, Mexico City and other cities, most street-level PM comes from a relatively small number of diesels • New US and Euro standards will take 2-3 decades to fully phase in • Ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel enables advanced catalytic and filter technologies and very low emissions • BUT…Typical diesel engine can last for one million miles—20+ years!

4. Most People (But Not All) Will See Cleaner Diesels in the Coming Decade • U.S., Europe, Japan: Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD, <50 ppm) and technology-forcing emission standards by 2010 • 68% of the world’s new vehicle sales • Many other countries are reducing sulfur and considering US/EC pathways already • More than 1/2 of the world’s population, and roughly 1/5 of new vehicle sales • China, India, Philippines, Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Taiwan, South Africa, Chile, Brazil, Mexico • 350-500 ppm is the de facto “first step,” and many are considering ULSD and associated emission standards • Urban retrofit programs are right for most cities in these groups

5. What Sulfur Level Makes Sense for Asian cities? • Reducing to 500 ppm (current US level) opens the door to retrofit programs • 25-50% PM reductions achievable • Most sulfate PM is eliminated from all vehicles • Maintenance benefits exist • Reducing sulfur to ultra-low levels (<50 ppm) enables US/EC standards (i.e., at least 90% PM and NOx reductions) and the most aggressive retrofit programs • High-efficiency controls that can cut PM by 85% or more • Especially useful for urban buses and some trucks • Decisions will depend on local air pollution concerns, available fuel and related infrastructure, and desired level of emission control • Over time, the technology gap between the developed and developing worlds should be closed

6. Step One: Pick the Right Fleets/Sectors • Significant public health benefits • Largest contributors to local pollution and/or health effects • Sensitive populations: Children, Elderly, etc. • Heavily-populated urban centers  • Centralized fueling • Sulfur-sensitive emission controls require a guaranteed, unadulterated, low-sulfur fuel • Sophisticated maintenance practices • Smoke-free buses require advanced maintenance practices and diagnostics • Government funding, contracting, or licensing • Tying public funds to cleaner diesels makes policy sense • Publicly-visible fleets helps build public support for the program

7. Step Two: Pick the Right Vehicles • The competition for funds requires a cost-effective approach • Fleets should be analyzed to identify the right vehicles and fleets for retrofit—considerations include: • Annual and lifetime mileage • Engine year, type, horsepower • Emission certification levels • Application or duty cycle • Temperature, fuel or other operating characteristics • Fleet maintenance history or practices

8. Step 3: Match the Right Strategies to those Fleets and Vehicles • RETIRE the oldest and dirtiest diesels as soon as possible • Start with the two-stroke diesels because they cannot be retrofit • REPLACE with the cleanest fuels and technologies, using a “systems approach” • Match the sulfur level with the emissions control technology to yield the most cost-effective emissions reductions • RETROFIT remaining diesels with PM controls • Retrofit the dirtiest vehicles first – a 50% reduction on a 0.07 gram engine cuts more pollution than a 90% reduction on a 0.01 gram engine • Repowers are expensive in most older highway vehicles, but are more prevalent in nonroad sector

9. Some Examples of PM-Reducing Retrofits • Diesel Oxidation Catalysts (DOCs) • 25-50% reduction, depending on substrate • $1,000-3,000 • Compatible with all vehicles, durable and requires minimal maintenance • Best for older vehicles with minimal controls—1.5 million in use globally • Flow-Through Filters (FTFs) • 50+% reduction • $3,500-5,500 • Best for 1990-1993 engines w/ electronic controls—only recently commercialized • Diesel Particulate Filters (DPFs) • Can be active or passive • 85+% reduction, requires ULSD and high operating temperatures • $5,000-8,000 + incremental fuel cost • Best for newer vehicles (post-94) w/ electronic fuel & engine controls—150,000 in use globally

10. Learning from NYC: Reducing Aggregate PM and NOx Emissions at NYC Transit • Largest Transit Fleet in U.S.—2 million weekday customers on 4,700 buses • Fleet-wide “Clean-Fuel Bus” Program included (1) early retirement of two-stroke engines; (2) ULSD in Fall 2000; (3) more than 3,200 new buses purchased (including 600 CNG and 325 Hybrid-Electric); and (4) roughly 3,200 DPF retrofits by 12/04

11. Learning from NRDC’s Analysis of Mexico City Fleets

12. Mexico City Buses: Retrofitting Buses Is Cost-Effective At All Vehicle Ages

13. Mexico City Trucks: DPFs Reduce More Tons, But DOCs More Cost-Effective

14. Lessons from Mexico City for Asian Cities • Pre-1990 vehicles provide the largest PM reductions at the lowest cost • Fleet Modernization yields the greatest PM reductions, but at high cost-effectiveness • Provides fuel economy, safety and other rider/driver benefits • DOCs provide most cost-effective PM reduction and are very durable • For early 1990s vehicles (pre-84), FTFs yield higher PM reductions but at slightly higher cost than DOCs • For post-1994 vehicles, DPFs provide at least twice the PM reduction so are worth the extra cost, assuming ULSD is available • But note: DPFs require high operating temperatures much of the time to effectively regenerate trapped particles, as well as pro-active maintenance since smoke-free tailpipe can mask engine problems • For more information, go to www.nrdc.org and search for “retrofit”

15. Conclusions • Reducing diesel emissions is the right focus for the next decade of vehicle emission control in Asia • Confluence of new fuel and emission standards, emerging technologies and greater awareness of diesel’s health risks • Diesel retrofit strategies can provide near-term, cost-effective emissions reductions in Asian cities • Retrofitting or retiring the oldest vehicles first will maximize emissions reductions and cost-effectiveness • Fleet modernization is less cost-effective, but yields other benefits • A “one-size-fits-all” approach won’t work for Asian cities • Successful retrofit programs will target the right fleets, and be structured to maximize cost-effectiveness and emissions reductions, while meeting each fleet’s operating needs