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Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality

Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality. Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference Sydney Australia 9 and 10 September 2010 Michael Sherris (with Andy Tang) Australian School of Business, UNSW. Introduction.

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Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality

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  1. Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference Sydney Australia 9 and 10 September 2010 Michael Sherris (with Andy Tang) Australian School of Business, UNSW

  2. Introduction Mortality rates are known to vary by geographical location and to depend on socio-economic factors. Demographic, ethnic and socio-economic mortality factors vary by geographical location. Spatial variability of Australian mortality is assessed using a spatial model along with explanatory risk factors including age, income, labour force participation and unemployment rate.

  3. Introduction Spatial models explain mortality variation by geographical location better than non-spatial models when limited data is available for socio-economic factors. Explanatory factors, which also vary spatially, reduce the need for spatial models for mortality.

  4. Logistic regression

  5. Non-spatial frailties model

  6. Spatial frailties model

  7. Data – SSD’s

  8. Data – mortality rates

  9. Covariates

  10. Results - GLM

  11. Spatial Frailties Model

  12. Model Comparison

  13. Summary and Main Conclusions Explanatory factors for mortality are spatially distributed Spatial models are useful in understanding mortality variation if information about factors is not available Implications for risk rating of longevity products – postcode, geographical factors – especially when risk factors data is limited.

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