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Climate change adaptation: adapting to change

Climate change adaptation: adapting to change. Mark Broadmeadow Forestry Commission. Why do we need to adapt?. ‘We’ve been around for millennia, so why have we only got ten years to save the planet?’. 1961-90. 2050s Low. 2050s High. 2080s High. Climate matching - Brechfa. *.

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Climate change adaptation: adapting to change

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  1. Climate change adaptation: adapting to change Mark Broadmeadow ForestryCommission

  2. Why do we need to adapt? ‘We’ve been around for millennia, so why have we only got ten years to save the planet?’

  3. 1961-90 2050s Low 2050s High 2080s High Climate matching - Brechfa * Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  4. The rate of change feet per day Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  5. ESC suitability change: Sitka spruce 2050 Low 2080 High 2050 High Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  6. Current distribution Climate space lost Climate space retained Climate space gained Changing distribution of ash 2020s 1961-90 2080s 2050s ECI/BRANCH project: www.branchproject.org. Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  7. Lowland ash Unsuitable Yew Upland ash Wet woodland Beech woodland Lowland oak Alder woodland Acid oak Upland oak Upland oak/birch ESC suitability for NVC woodland 1961-90 2050s Low 2050s High Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  8. Unforeseen and extreme events Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  9. Don’t forget there are opportunities Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  10. What do we want to protect?

  11. Productive capacity Functional ecosystems Recreation and well- being Urban treescape Functional landscapes Landscape quality Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  12. Adaptation - don’t put all the eggs…….. Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  13. What are the options?

  14. Make existing ecosystems more resilient • Manage existing woodlands better - promote regeneration and reduce other pressures • deer management • fire management plans • wind hazard management • Enlarge existing woodlands • Create habitat networks to encourage natural adaptation/evolutionary processes • Relax designations to reflect likely changes in community structure that will still form functional woodland ecosystems Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  15. baseline 2050s Low 2050s High 2080s High Changing species range: beech Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  16. Enhancing resilience of native species • Redistribute native species within the site/landscape/country - ie amend species choice • Diversify species composition • mixed species stands, including for commercial timber production • diversification within wood/forest/landscape • Use seed origins from more southerly regions Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  17. Utilising the available genetic resource Grimsthorpe - England Slovenia Dunnottar - Scotland • Encourage regeneration and natural selection • ‘Provenance matching’ • Oceanic climate • Frost risk >2 degrees south • ‘Portfolio approach’ Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  18. Non-native species • Productive plantations • commercial timber species for which we have (limited) silvicultural knowledge (Nothofagus; Eucalyptus; black walnut; pinaster pine). • New native and amenity woodland • small component of native species dominated mixture; • main component of 'new ecosystems’; • from continental Europe - where they are components of functional ecosystems alongside our native species; • careful consideration required of impacts on native species and woodlands • hybridisation • pests and diseases • invasiveness But.......evidence not sufficient and unlikely to be necessary in Wales Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  19. Species choice in the urban environment Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  20. Alternative approaches to management: LISS • Species diversity • Structural diversity • Regeneration capacity • regular regeneration provides ‘insurance’ • less hostile environment • encourages natural selection • Windfirm? • If not, next cohort present Encourage regeneration and natural selection‘ Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  21. Protecting the genetic resource • Create refugia for species under threat • Create refugia for identifiable genotypes/races under threat - conserve genetic diversity • Use arboreta/collections as global repository of genetic material Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  22. Barriers to effective adaptation • Uncertainty • The level and rate of change predicted • Pests and diseases • Extreme events • Some current concepts of nature conservation • An understanding of new assemblages • Competing policies • Complacency Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

  23. Conclusions: appropriate actions • There are options we can take now • The sector needs to act soon to ensure a resource for future generations • We should only implement no or low regret measures • Diversification insures against uncertainty • Some higher risk actions may be prudent • Above all, we should not panic........ • .........but take the opportunities climate change presents Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?

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