NS4053 Theories of International Relations and Energy Security

1. NS4053Theories of International Relations and Energy Security Week 4.1

2. Theories of International Politics • Realism • Structural realism • Liberalism • Marxism • Goals of theory: • Analytical • Predictive • Normative

3. Realism • View of world: pessimistic, zero sum • Unit of analysis: state • Nature of system: anarchy • Structure of system: distribution of capabilities (balance of power) • State interests: survival, self-help, relative gains

4. Realist concerns about energy security • Access to energy resources • Growing scarcity of energy • State competition over access to scarce resources • Wealth derived from energy flowing to weak, unstable countries that are hostile, revisionist, ‘rogue states’. • State conflict over energy

5. Liberalism • View of world: optimistic • Unit of analysis: States act ona crowded stage. • Nature of system: anarchy tempered by … • International institutions • Democratic peace • Structure of system: distribution of capabilities and institutionalized cooperation. • State interests: survival and absolute gains

6. Liberalist concerns about energy security • Dark underbelly of energy • Resource curse and rentier states • Resource wars • Dirty politics • What needs to be done • Transparency • Accountability • Good governance and corporate social responsibility • Economic liberalization and freer markets for energy

7. Marxism • View of world: pessimistic • Unit of analysis: social classes • State is the executive committee of the ruling class • Nature of system: ordered by wealth • Structure of system: rich countries exploit weak countries. • State interests: reflect the interest of economic elites. • Core states (developed): exploitative • Periphery (underdeveloped): dependent

8. Marxist concerns about energy security • West efforts to manipulate international politics and energy supplies to preserve economic dominance. • Political and economic consequences of dependency in peripheral energy producers. • Underdevelopment • Repressive politics • Entrenched economic elites

9. Assessing threats Brazil Iran Population: ~ 75 million GDP: $331 billion Armed forces: 545K/1.8M res. Defense budget: $9.2 billion Nuclear fuel cycle: Yes? Nuclear bomb design: ? Missile technology: Yes Proximity: Farther NPT member: Yes NPT AP in place: Yes Energy producer: mostly oil • Population: ~ 196 million • GDP: $2.48 trillion • Armed forces: 327K/1.3M res. • Defense budget: $28 billion • Nuclear fuel cycle: Yes • Nuclear bomb design: Yes? • Missile technology: Yes • Proximity: Closer • NPT member: Yes • NPT AP in place: No • Energy producer: hydro, nuclear, oil, biomass

10. Geopolitics of Energy • Harris’ concerns: • Rise of China and Asia energy demand • End of cheap energy • Altered balance between international and national oil companies • Growing importance of Middle East and Russia for generating exportable fossil fuels.

11. Implications of rising cost of energy? • What if China and India were to have similar GDP and energy use patterns as US? • New fields coming online are more costly to extract and refine. • Shift from oil to unconventional fuels not likely to happen fast enough to hold prices down. • Who gets the revenues?

12. Who controls energy production? • Rise of National Oil Companies • Control most liquid fossil fuels reserves. • Not solely motivated by economic concerns. • Exportable liquid fossil fuels mostly concentrated in Mid East and Russia. • How does this affect states’ foreign policies? • How does this affect possibility of conflict?

13. Implications for policy • What kind of relations with China, Middle East and Russia • How to mitigate risks to access and supply?