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First Presentation

First Presentation. The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Economic Growth and Development Mario Liebensteiner Johannes Kepler University, Linz Supervisor: Dr. Michael Landesmann 2009-05-26. Overall Research Question Does Trade Liberalization promote Economic Growth and Development?

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First Presentation

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  1. First Presentation The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Economic Growth and Development Mario Liebensteiner Johannes Kepler University, Linz Supervisor: Dr. Michael Landesmann 2009-05-26

  2. Overall Research Question Does Trade Liberalization promote Economic Growth and Development? Distinction of Growth and Development Call for Further Research(Hallak, 2004; Nouzard & Powell, 2004; Squalli & Wilson, 2006) 3 Main Parts Literature Overview, History Econometric Approach Country Studies: China, India Structure

  3. First Part • Motivation • Literature Overview • History of Trade Liberalization • Evaluation of the Recent Discussion • Pro-Liberalization and Critics • Recent Research by Other Authors • Growth and Development

  4. Second Part • Econometric Approach • Cross-Country Regressions • Growth as Dependent Variable • Development Variables as Dependent Variables e.g. • Regressions on other Development Variables

  5. Second Part (cont. (1)) • 5 Year Averages to Control for Autocorrelation (to capture Long-Term Effects) and Measurement Errors (Gourdon, et.al. 2006) • Maybe Lagged Variables and Interactive Terms Measures of Trade Openness • Trade Intensity: (Exp+Imp)/GDP (Nouzard & Powell, 2004) • Composite Trade Intensity (Squalli & Wilson, 2006) • Black Market Premium (Dollar, 1992; Nouzard & Powell, 2004) • SW-Indicator (Sachs & Warner, 1995) • Trade Policy Variables • Tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers (Rodrik, 2000)

  6. Second Part (cont. (2)) • Data Sources: • Penn World Tables, Barro-Lee-Education Data • IMF, UN, World Bank, FIW, GDN, WIID… • Robustness Tests • Comparing Openness Ranks of Countries with different Data Sets • Estimation of Same Equations but differentData Sets (Squalli & Wilson, 2006)

  7. Third Part • Individual Country Cases: China & India • Econometrics rather difficult • Thus Descriptive Analysis • Why country studies? • Interesting to Look at Growth and Development Variables in a More Complex Context -> Detailed Insight • Health, Poverty, Education, Urbanization, Employment, Wealth, Regional Inequality

  8. Third Part (cont. (2)) • Different Developments • esp. Employment, Inequality of Incomes, Regional Inequality • Different Strategies • Both Countries are Successfully Integrated • Benefit from International Trade • Neither Followed Orthodox Trade Policies (Stiglitz, 2005)

  9. Third Part (cont. (1)) • India • Gradual Liberalization Strategy, Low-Tech Exports in Goods and Services, High-Tech Service Exports only in IT-Sector (Bussièr & Mehl, 2008) • China • Gradually Implemented Trade Strategy, Carefully Sequenced (Stiglitz, 2005), High-Tech Exports in Goods • South-West Industrialization, Imports from emerging Asian Economies to Re-Export to Mature Economies • Important Trade Partner for India (but Reverse is Not True) (Bussièr & Mehl, 2008)

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