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Economic Update Summer 2011: Desperately Seeking Employment

Economic Update Summer 2011: Desperately Seeking Employment. Karl Smith. The Economic Picture. Tax Bases Overall Economy Credit Balance Sheet Construction Manufacturing Government. Retail Sales – Year over Year. Retail Sales – Year over Year. Retail Sales – Year over Year.

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Economic Update Summer 2011: Desperately Seeking Employment

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  1. Economic Update Summer 2011: Desperately Seeking Employment Karl Smith

  2. The Economic Picture • Tax Bases • Overall Economy • Credit • Balance Sheet • Construction • Manufacturing • Government

  3. Retail Sales – Year over Year

  4. Retail Sales – Year over Year

  5. Retail Sales – Year over Year

  6. Retail Sales – Trend

  7. Retail Sales – Trend

  8. Retail Sales – Trend

  9. Home Prices – Trend

  10. Home Prices – Trend

  11. Home Prices – Trend

  12. Home Prices – Trend

  13. Revenue Summary • Retail Sales growing well • Long time until a return to trend but regular growth should proceed from here on out • Home Prices • Still Very Weak • Most revals will show falling values for the next few years • I expect strong home price growth for NC over the 5+ year horizon

  14. The Overall Economy • Actually Doing Decent Except for One Little Detail . . . No Jobs • Corporate Profits Back • Government Revenues Healing • Stock Market Rebounded • Home Prices (relatively) stable

  15. Gross Domestic Product

  16. Gross Domestic Product

  17. Nonfinancial Corporate Profits

  18. Financial Corporate Profits

  19. Stock Prices

  20. Unemployment

  21. Employment - Trend

  22. Employment - Trend

  23. Employment – Monthly Gain/Loss

  24. Credit Crisis

  25. Balance Sheet

  26. Manufacturing Employment

  27. Trade Deficit

  28. Construction Employment

  29. Housing Starts

  30. Housing Starts Per New Resident

  31. Local Government Employment

  32. State Government Employment

  33. Federal Government Employment

  34. Private Non-Goods Employment

  35. Private Non-Goods Employment

  36. Goods and Government Employment

  37. Economic Summary • Economy Recovering Slow but Steady • Employment lagging because of Construction, Manufacturing and Government • Manufacturing: should level out for a bit but downward trend likely • Construction: there is a boom out there somewhere. When? • Government: Revenues have stabilized but political climate may be for more downsizing

  38. Gas Prices

  39. Inflation

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