PRIMER 119 2010-17 Dr. Walter Hays Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction walter_hays@msn

1. PRIMER 119 2010-17Dr. Walter Hays Global Alliance For Disaster Reductionwalter_hays@msn.com

2. INTEGRATING THE PAST WITH THE PRESENT A PRIMER OF KNOWLEDGE THAT CAN MULTIPLY AND SPILL OVER FOR THE BENEFIT OF MILLIONS

3. LEST WE FORGET OUR PAST … AND SIMILAR EVENTS RECUR AND FIND US UNPREPARED

4. MAIN IDEA • A lot of the UNCERTAINTY in future emergency response and recovery phases will be eliminated if we can make: • The VIRTUAL REALITY derived from EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS • Look like REALITY.

5. HAZARD MAPS • INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION • MITIGATION • PREPAREDNESS • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY and • RECONSTRUCTION RISK ASSESSMENT POLICY OPTIONS ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK RISK MANAGEMENT DATA BASES AND INFORMATION YOUR COMMUNITY HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

6. EVERY ELEMENT IN A COMMUNITY CAN BE MADE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT

7. RESEARCH POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES • STRATEGY • PREVENTION • MITIGATION • DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY • RECONSTRUCTION TECHNOLOGY BASE

8. California Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario • Major impact to largemetropolitan areas • Consequences would eclipse Katrina • Large area of impact - 155,959 Sq. Miles • Highly populated areas - 36M+ • Significant earthquake risk throughout State 8

9. California Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario • Tsunami risk • Mass Evacuation • Significant infrastructure impacts • Response problems due to roadway collapse/blockage • Estimated loss -- > $400B 9

10. SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA

11. SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES FOR CALIFORNIA ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE “BIG ONES” RECUR Source: US Geological Survey

12. HAYWARD FAULT ZONE

13. A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO Because of its location in the densely populated Bay area of 7 million people,an earthquake on the Hayward fault is likely to be one of the nation's biggest natural disasters.

14. A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO A Hayward fault earthquake potentially affects 5 million people, and damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay bridge, andthe campus of UC Berkeley.

15. HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO

16. HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA A M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage. The region'stransportation infrastructure and water delivery systems will take a major hit.

17. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA

18. QUAKE SHAKEOUT SCENARIO The goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California , and in so doing, enable end users to identify what they can change now—before the earthquake—in order to avoid catastrophic impactsafter the inevitable earthquake occurs.

19. GROUND SHAKING 60 SECONDS AFTER FAULT RUPTURE

20. THE M 7.8 SHAKEOUT QUAKE The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake causes about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses.

21. THE M 7.8 SHAKEOUT QUAKE These numbers are as low as they are because of aggressive retrofitting programs that have increased the seismic resistance of buildings, highways and lifelines, and added economic resiliency.

22. THE M 7.8 SHAKEOUT QUAKE The estimates of about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses are as large as they are because much more retrofitting could still be done.

23. NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE SCENARIOJUNE 2010 AND MARCH 2008 ASSUMPTIONS: M7.7 2:00 AM http://mae.cee.illinois.edu/news/reportusa2.html

24. EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO • A COMPREHENSIVE INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FROM GEOLOGY, GEOPHYSICS, SEISMOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHY, ARCHITECTURE, CIVIL ENGINEERING, AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL LIKE HAZUS-MH

25. AN EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO FOR THE NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE Based on Increased Scientific and Engineering Knowledge and Regional Demographic Changes, … and A continuing dialog sampled in a Regional Workshop, March 17-19, 2008 Mid-America Earthquake Center, Report 08-02

26. NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE

27. NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE

28. NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE The New Madrid Seismic Zone covers parts of eight states: Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee. It was the source of four great earthquakes (M8.0 to 8.8) in 1811-1812.

29. NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE

30. EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

31. INTEGRATED GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MODEL

32. NMSZ: ONE OF WORLD’S LARGEST LIQUEFACTION FIELDS

33. AREA OF DAMAGE IS MUCH LARGER IN EASTERN USA

34. New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario Approximately 12 million people at high risk • Consequences eclipse Katrina • impact area - 126,575 Sq Miles • 44M people in eight-State region • Multiple jurisdictions and Governors St. Louis 1.5-2 Million IL IN MO KY TN Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160–200 Cities AR AL MS Memphis 1-1.5 Million Directly Impacted States Indirectly Impacted States 34

35. New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario Approximately 12 million people at high risk • Significant loss of infrastructure • Response problems hindered by long aftershock sequence • Estimated loss -- $300B+ • Severe weather & evacuation issues St. Louis 1.5-2 Million IL IN MO KY TN Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160–200 Cities AR AL MS Memphis 1-1.5 Million Directly Impacted States Indirectly Impacted States 35

36. New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario Approximately 12 million people at high risk • Nearly 86,000 total casualties • 3,500 fatalities • Estimated loss -- $300B+ St. Louis 1.5-2 Million IL IN MO KY TN Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160–200 Cities AR AL MS Memphis 1-1.5 Million Directly Impacted States Indirectly Impacted States 36

37. MEMPHIS, TN: AT RISK

38. ASSUMPTIONS OF SCENARIO Damage and loss estimates and the planning assumptions are predicated on the occurrence of a magnitude 7.7 earthquake at 2:00 am.

39. ASSUMPTIONS OF SCENARIO The epicenter is assumed to be located approximately 33 miles North North-West of Memphis, TN.

40. SCENARIO IMPACTS The geography of the multi-state area will change dramatically as a consequence of liquefaction and landslides.

41. SCENARIO IMPACTS The most notable changes will occur in and around the Mississippi River and other rivers within the Mississippi River drainage basin.

42. SCENARIO IMPACTS 715,000 buildings will sustain heavy damage , and 100,000 will be completely destroyed from strong ground shaking.

43. SCENARIO IMPACTS Damage will occur over a wide area, especially in locations underlain by soft soil. Multiple fires will occur throughout the area.

44. SCENARIO IMPACTS Utilities will be interrupted, leaving 2.5 MILLION without power, and water, gas, and waste disposal outages will occur over a wide area.

45. SOCIETAL IMPACTS Critical infrastructure (power plants, dams) throughout the region will be seriously compromised

46. SCENARIO IMPACTS Essential infrastructure (schools, universities, hospitals) throughout the region will be seriously compromised

47. SCENARIO IMPACTS Transportation systems (highways, bridges, airports, river traffic) throughout the region will be seriously compromised

48. SCENARIO IMPACTS Communications throughout the region will be seriously compromised

49. SCENARIO IMPACTS: TN The State of Tennessee incurs the highest level of damage and social impacts. Over 250,000 buildings are moderately or severely damaged.

50. SCENARIO IMPACTS: TN Over 260,000 people are displaced and over 80,000 casualties (injuries and fatalities) are expected.