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Modeling TAC Report

Modeling TAC Report. September 15, 2003. Topics Reviewed. Development of a young stand (age 0 to 15) model. Incorporation of young SMC data (Type I and Type III) into existing models. Simple program to generate START-UP conditions for ORGANON. Modeling wood quality.

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Modeling TAC Report

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  1. Modeling TAC Report September 15, 2003

  2. Topics Reviewed • Development of a young stand (age 0 to 15) model. • Incorporation of young SMC data (Type I and Type III) into existing models. • Simple program to generate START-UP conditions for ORGANON. • Modeling wood quality. • Process for Modeling TAC to review future proposals (such as type IV's) for modeling benefits.

  3. Young Stand Model • Several models exist: • Fenn model • RVMM • Conifers • Weaknesses include: • Limited data sets. • Narrow geographic scope. • Some treatments not considered.

  4. Young Stand Model • Model Specifications: • Project bare ground with treatments to pass-off point to older stand models. • Genetics • Site preparation • Vegetation control • Grow multiple species • Regeneration under alternative harvesting systems/stand structures (variable retention, patch cuts, etc.)

  5. Young Stand Model • Model Specifications: • Incorporate animal damage and control, and disease agents (e.g., SNC). • Develop and incorporate a better characterization of site productivity under management.

  6. Young Stand Model • Modeling Team: • Possibly Martin Ritchie at PSW. • Support from Modeling TAC. • Funding Options: • SMC funded project. • Subscription basis (with in-kind contributions?) • Grants (maybe especially useful for components of the model dealing with climate, productivity)

  7. Young Stand Model • Next Steps: • Martin Ritchie and Greg Johnson to develop a proposal • Identify existing data and models. • Set model priorities and data needs. • Make incremental improvements to existing frameworks (e.g., Conifers). • Make recommendations on future data collection and studies. • Hold another meeting to develop recommendations on future data collection and collaboration among cooperatives.

  8. Using SMC I & III Data • Model history / specifications • Small number of Type III’s installed when SMC ORGANON developed and few if any remeasurements. • Type I’s were also limited at the time. • Site index was a problem -- very high estimates of site index from young plantations. Cooperator site index call did not correlate well with exhibited site index. • Significantly more data available available now.

  9. Using SMC I & III Data • Modeling Team: • Hann/Marshall/Flewelling/Hanus/… • Funding Options: • SMC project • In-kind • Next Steps: • Hann to develop a proposal.

  10. Start-Up Program for ORGANON • Program Specifications: • DBH distribution generator for ORGANON • Weibull(A,B,C) distribution • Priority on usable software now with extensions later • Limited to plantation DF and WH • Start-up parameters: • 15 years BH • HTOP = 15 to 20 feet • Dq, CV(ba), D10 = f(HTOP, TPA)

  11. Start-Up Program for ORGANON • Project Products: • Parameter recovery methods. • Tree list generator. • Software. • Project Team: • Flewelling • Funding: • To be determined.

  12. Start-Up Program for ORGANON • Gehringer’s tree list generator • SMC generator is available • Extensible via updates to base data table • Handles DF and WH, unthinned and thinned • Random number seed can be fixed by user

  13. Modeling Wood Quality • ORGANON wood quality module limited to “Big Six” species, new data on WH to be analyzed soon. • FVS developers being asked to develop similar functionality. • Distribution and size of branches, juvenile core are expected outputs. • Is it possible to port the functionality from ORGANON to FVS? • New ORGANON variant (v 7.0) has new branch diameter equations for DF

  14. TAC Review of Silviculture Projects • TAC could act as a reviewer of proposals • GMUG could be another avenue for review. • Questions: • How wide should be review function extend? • Should other cooperatives be involved? • Outside scientists? • This approach may fragment the review of proposals and thus may add to problems. • Informal review may be the best -- participation is hard to get as it is.

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