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NOAA-EPA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Progress and Plans October 17, 2006

NOAA-EPA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Progress and Plans October 17, 2006 Paula M. Davidson 1 , Nelson Seaman 1 , Jeff McQueen 1 , Rohit Mathur 1,2 , Roland Draxler 1, Richard Wayland 2 1 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

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NOAA-EPA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Progress and Plans October 17, 2006

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  1. NOAA-EPA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability: • Progress and Plans • October 17, 2006 Paula M. Davidson1, Nelson Seaman1, Jeff McQueen1, Rohit Mathur1,2, Roland Draxler1, Richard Wayland2 1National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 2US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

  2. Outline • Overview of Current Capability • Progress in 2006 toward expanded capabilities • Looking ahead

  3. EPA Monitoring Network AQI: Peak Jul 28 National Air Quality Forecast Capability End-to-End Operational Capability • Model Components: Linked numerical prediction system • Operationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputer NCEP mesoscale NWP: WRF-NMM NOAA/EPA community multiscale model for AQ: CMAQ • Observational Input: NWS real-time weather observations EPA emissions inventory • Gridded forecast guidance products On NWS Telecommunications Gateway and EPA servers Updated 2x daily • Verification basis EPA/AIRNow compilation: ground-level ozone observations • Customer outreach/feedback State&Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA Public and Private Sector AQ constituents

  4. Operational AQ forecast guidancewww.weather.gov/aq Further informationwww.nws.noaaa.gov/ost/air_quality

  5. Experimental Products: Coast-to-coast Ozone, Smoke Forecast Guidance www.weather.gov/aq-expr

  6. IOC “1x” EUS “3X” Testing Domain: Summer 2006 Operational: EUS “3x” Experimental: CONUS “5X” 265 grid cells 142 Northeast “1x”Domain 259 grid cells 166 CONUS “5x” Domain East “3x” Domain 268 grid cells 442 grid cells

  7. Testing Summary Summer, 2006 • Ozone: Experimental testing beginning June, 2006 over CONUS • New WRF-CMAQ linkage, improved vertical coupling with σ-P adopted inCMAQ/WRF • Updates to emissions (esp mobile and EGU sources) • ACM mixing in clouds • Smoke: Experimental testing beginning March, 2006 • Fire Locations and verification based on satellite observations • Fire emissions estimates from USFS (BlueSky) • HYSPLIT/NAM transport • Aerosols: Developmental testing providing comprehensive dataset for diagnostic evaluations • CMAQ (aerosol option) • Qualitative; underprediction consistent with missing source inputs

  8. Preliminary Analysis of Ozone Predictions: Summer, 2006

  9. Testing Challenges: Summer, 2006 1. Comparison of Operational and Experimental testing: Before Isoprene correction for 5X E US (3X) vs. CONUS (5X): After Isoprene correction for 5X

  10. Ozone Episode in Eastern US: July 16-19, 2006 July 16 July 17 July 18 July 19 July 20

  11. Experimental Testing Summary: OzoneSummer, 2006 • Diagnosing and addressing issues not uncovered with retrospective testing • WRF implementation into NAM: June 20 Relative to Eta: Similar performance in Eastern US, but cooler, wetter in Western US  Lower surface O3 • WRF upgrade/correction: August 15 Increased mixing: more vertical mixing in stable PBL , horizontal mixing in complex terrain (mountains and along coast) • Correction impacts: localized; more diffuse O3 gradients • Operational (3X) ozone: WRF-Post Processor. T-Interpolation (vertical; in WRF-post) error  Slightly higher ozone • Corrected July 28. Impact: slightly reduced surface O3 • Experimental (5X) ozone: PREMAQ/CMAQ corrections Experimental (5X) Ozone and Developmental Aerosols: Biogenic VOCs incorrectly underestimated  Much lower surface O3 • Corrected August 5. Impact: Much increased surface O3 • (3X and 5X) PREMAQ/CMAQ corrections Some emissions components left from 2005; numerics: (arrays undefined, Jacobian error) • Corrected August 5; September 5. Minor (localized) impacts

  12. Sample Smoke Evaluation - April 13, 2006 NAM/HYSPLIT 1-d Forecast & HMS Analysis 12 -14 UTC HYSPLIT Analysis HYSPLIT 24-hr Forecast

  13. WRF-HYSPLIT 24-h Smoke Predictions:Preliminary Evaluation, 2006 14 September 2006 WRF-HYSPLIT 24h (blue) vs HMS (orange) Preliminary Verification statistics: FMS Threshold: 1ug/m3 in Column Initial target: 10%

  14. Preliminary Aerosol Predictions: Summer, 2006 July 25, 2006

  15. Testing Summary Summer, 2006 • Ozone: Extensive retrospective testing with developmental NAM-CMAQ system during Winter and Spring still left some surprises: • Experimental (5X) ozone: • Large under-predictions especially in the west; systematically lower ozone than operational (3) in East • Operational (3X) ozone: • Some over-predictions for cool, cloudy conditions • Smoke: Experimental testing providing basis for systematic near-real time evaluations with satellite observations: • Results promising for predicted smoke transport, compared to HMS smoke analyses (independent, analyst-prepared) • Development of objective smoke analyses for near-real time verification nearly complete • Aerosols: Developmental testing providing comprehensive dataset for diagnostic evaluations: • Underprediction common; consistent with missing source inputs

  16. National AQF Capability:Looking ahead • Ozone forecast guidance produced operationally (WRF-CMAQ) over CONUS (near-term) • Improving day-to-day performance, especially in the west • Transitioning experimental products to operations • Expanded products to be tested: • Ozone: • Further development: to more closely couple AQ with WRF weather output; examine impacts of vertical resolution, vertical mixing treatments, horizontal boundary conditions… • Testing over all 50 states • Particulate matter components: • Smoke from large fires: objective verification baseline; transition to operations • Aerosols predicted from anthropogenic source emissions in inventories: continued development/testing/analysis

  17. 2005: O3 National Air Quality Forecast Capability:Phased Growth • Early Implementations: 1-day forecast guidance for ozone • Developed and deployed initially for Northeastern US, September 2004 • Expanded over Eastern US, Aug 2005 • Near-Term targets: • Implement ozone guidance over CONUS: Summer 2007 • Deploy Nationwide (AK & HI) target: by 2009 • Longer range (within 10 years): • Develop and implement capability to forecast particulate matter (PM) • Particulate size < 2.5 microns • Data assimilation for air quality • Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours • Include broader range of significant pollutants

  18. Appendix

  19. National AQF Capability Status October, 2006 • Ozone forecast guidance produced operationally (WRF-CMAQ): • Eastern US. 2X daily, 12km grid resolution, hourly predictions, through midnight next day. Ground-level ozone concentrations • On NOAA/NWS servers: www.weather.gov/aq • On EPA’s AIRNow website, displayed as AQ Index values • Eta was replaced in the NAM by WRF(NMM) in June, 2006 • Achieving performance targets for accuracy, reliability • Expanded products being tested in FY06: • Ozone: CONUS domain, experimentally available: from June, 2006 • Further developmental work to couple AQ more closely with WRF weather output • Particulate matter components: Smoke from large fires, experimentally available (CONUS): from March 2006 Transport prediction; qualitative. USFS fire emissions, passive transport. Aerosols produced/transported; sources from anthropogenic emissions in climatologic inventories; in developmental testing (CONUS): from June, 2006

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