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Hindsight Bias and Priming: Two Designs, Two Results

Ragav Kumar and Daniel M. Bernstein. Hindsight Bias and Priming: Two Designs, Two Results. Kite. Think about what percentage of people would be able to correctly identify the distorted word, assuming they had not seen the clear version first.

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Hindsight Bias and Priming: Two Designs, Two Results

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  1. Ragav Kumar and Daniel M. Bernstein Hindsight Bias and Priming:Two Designs, Two Results

  2. Kite Think about what percentage of people would be able to correctly identify the distorted word, assuming they had not seen the clear version first. Think about what percentage of people would be able to correctly identify the distorted word.

  3. Inability to take naïve perspective from before you received information Hindsight Bias

  4. Exposure to a stimulus affects response to a later stimulus Priming Just listen, for now. Think about what percentage of people would be able to correctly identify the distorted word.

  5. Hindsight Bias stimulus might just be a prime Difference in instructions Overlap

  6. Experiment 1: Between Subjects Experiment 2: Within Subjects Experiments

  7. Study Phase • Priming: 0, 1, 3, 6 times • Test Phase • Ignorant Identification • Ignorant Estimation • Hindsight Estimation – Flashcards Method: Experiments 1

  8. Ignorant estimates would increase as number of primes increased Hindsight estimates would not increase with the number of primes Hypotheses

  9. Expected Results

  10. Experiment 1: Between Subjects Hindsight Estimation Ignorant Identification Ignorant Estimation

  11. Ignorant estimates would increase as number of primes increased Hindsight estimates would not increase with the number of primes Hypotheses - Revisited

  12. Within Subjects replication of Experiment 1 Allows direct examination of Hindsight Bias and Priming Experiment 2: Within Subjects

  13. Priming: 0, 1, 3, 6 times • Test (Counter-balanced) • Ignorant Estimation • Hindsight Estimation – Flashcards Method: Experiment 2

  14. Greater estimates overall in hindsight condition Interaction between Hindsight Bias and priming Hypotheses

  15. Expected Results: Replication

  16. No Interaction?! Experiment 2 Results (N=42)

  17. Greater estimates in hindsight condition Interaction between hindsight bias and priming Hypotheses - Revisited

  18. Hindsight Bias is the same thing as Priming? • Conflicting results • Study Design seems to be a factor Conclusions

  19. Why is there a difference between designs? • Methodological Issues • Follow-up: Improved Re-run Limitations and Follow-ups

  20. Questions?

  21. Ease of processing information • Perceptual • Conceptual Fluency

  22. Results – Between Subjects, Words (Full)

  23. Results – Between Subjects, Nonwords

  24. Results – Within Subjects, Nonwords (N=38)

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