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Climate Change Challenges in the Arizona-Sonora Border Region

Climate Change Challenges in the Arizona-Sonora Border Region Arizona-Mexico Commission – Water Committee 2007 Arizona Summer Plenary Session Tucson, Arizona June 14, 2007. Gregg Garfin Climate Assessment for the Southwest Institute for the Study of Planet Earth University of Arizona.

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Climate Change Challenges in the Arizona-Sonora Border Region

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  1. Climate Change Challenges in the Arizona-Sonora Border Region Arizona-Mexico Commission – Water Committee 2007 Arizona Summer Plenary Session Tucson, Arizona June 14, 2007 Gregg Garfin Climate Assessment for the Southwest Institute for the Study of Planet Earth University of Arizona

  2. Climate Change Water Challenges in the Arizona-Sonora Border Region • Increased temperatures: very likely • Decreased precipitation: likely • Potential direct impacts and concerns: • Decreased water supply reliability • Increased surface water evaporation • Decreased hydropower production • Reduced minimum flows for fish and estuaries • Earlier peak flow timing • Greater likelihood of extreme events: drought, flood

  3. Climate Change Water Challenges in the Arizona-Sonora Border Region • Potential indirect impacts and concerns: • Increased water and energy demands for warm season cooling • Amplified by urban heat islands • Increased stress on ecosystems: • Enhanced insect-related disturbances • Fire  erosion  decreased water quality  enhanced threats to infrastructure • Invasive species + fire + increased temperature  plant and animal migration  landscape transformation

  4. 2003 Southern California Wildfires New York Times 2000 2002 Lake Powell’s decline J. Dohrenwend, USGS 2002 Soildesiccation Arizona DailyStar Southwest U.S. forest die-off T. Degomez, UA Cooperative Extension

  5. Mexico Ranching • Impacts • 1990s northern Mexico droughts • 30% reduction in cattle inventory • 1996: >300,000 cattle perished • Cattle sold in U.S. market at depressed prices • U.S.-Mexico tensions over tariffs, disease

  6. Reservoir Levels 1999 Drought disaster declarations Costs > $350 million (source: CNN, May 21, 1999)

  7. Cortez Vázquez, 2006 NADM Workshop

  8. October-May Precipitation Sonora/Chihuahua José Villanueva Diáz, INIFAP, 2006 NADM Workshop

  9. Radiation Balance The climate system redistributes heat and moisture

  10. http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/09.htm

  11. 380 280 Most rapid change in the last 10,000 years CO2 Change in Perspective http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/02.htm

  12. http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.htmlhttp://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html

  13. Courtesy of Kelly Redmond, Western Regional Climate Center

  14. Courtesy of Kelly Redmond, Western Regional Climate Center

  15. Annual Temperature Change at 10,000 ft / 3,000 m – 1979-2004 Henry Diaz, NOAA ESRL

  16. Taken January 30, 2006 by Larry Martinez, USDA-NRCS: White Mountain Snowpack at 9,200 ft., near Mt. Baldy Wilderness (Normally 24” snowpack).

  17. Stewart et al. 2005 Journal of Climate

  18. Stewart et al. 2005 Journal of Climate

  19. Stewart et al. 2005 Journal of Climate

  20. IPCC 4th Assessment: Working Group I, Chapter 11, Regional Projections

  21. Lower latitudes tend to dry out during winter • Tropical high pressure expands • Jet stream retreats to the north

  22. Change in Center of Mass in Streamflow Stewart et al., 2004 Climatic Change

  23. Annual average temperature 9.0° 5.4° Annual average precipitation Annual average runoff Christensen & Lettenmaier, 2006 Conservative Projection of Future Climate in the UCRB 11 models and 2 emissions scenarios downscaled to the Colorado River Basin Departures from 1950-1999

  24. Impacts to LCRB • April 1 SWE: 75% of average by 2040-2069 • Releases to Lower Basin: drop below current annual releases 28-44% of years • Delivery shortages: 21-38% of the time • Average deliveries to Mexico: –85% to –94% of treaty agreement • Power output: –20% of 1950-1999 average • Decreased surface water supply reliability Christensen and Lettenmaier, 2006

  25. Longer Heat Waves Diffenbaugh et al., 2005 Proceedings of the National Academy of Science

  26. Arizona Daily Star More Precipitation in Extremes Diffenbaugh et al., 2005 Proceedings of the National Academy of Science

  27. Victor Magaña, UNAM

  28. Victor Magaña, UNAM

  29. Massive Forest Dieback Courtesy of Dr. Craig Allen, NPS

  30. Courtesy of Ron Smallwood, Large Binocular Telescope Observatory, 2004 Fire Post-Wildfire Erosion Courtesy of Univ. Arizona Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/learn/fire/ecological.html

  31. Current Realities:Changing demographics • Population increases on both sides of the border • Growing populations strain water resources and raise demand for energy • Altered land-use patterns increase vulnerability Courtesy of Dr. Robert Varady, Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy

  32. Recommendations to address Climate Change Water Challenges • Enhanced bi-national climate monitoring • SMN, NIDIS, AHIS • Citizen scientists, Rainlog • Centers for Arizona-Sonora bi-national research and outreach • Capacity building initiatives • Border Climate Summary • Arizona-Sonora drought preparedness • To optimize decision-making: strong cooperation between institutions affected by climate and those that manage water and land

  33. Gregg Garfin Climate Assessment for the Southwest Institute for the Study of Planet Earth gmgarfin@email.arizona.edu 520-622-9016 www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/

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