The impact of climate change on policy and migration of people

1. The impact of climate change on policyand migration of people Sandor Szalai Szent Istvan University Szalai.sandor@mkk.szie.hu

2. History • The complex societies of Egypt and Mesopotamia, for example, emergedas people migrated away from desiccating rangelands and into riverine areas. • Duringthe 4th century, growing aridity and frigid temperatures froma prolonged cold snap caused the Hun and German tribesmovedtowest. • The 8th century Muslim expansion into the Mediterranean and southernEurope was, to some extent, driven by drought in the Middle East. (Dupont, Pearman, 2006)

3. Effects of migration(IOM, 2008) • Forced migration hinders development in at least four ways; • by increasing pressureon urban infrastructure and services, • by undermining economic growth, • by increasingthe risk of conflict and • by leading to worse health, educational and social indicatorsamongmigrantsthemselves.

4. Terminology • Climaterefugees (definitionproblems) • Climatemigrants • Climateevacuee (temporalwithinthenationalborders) • “Environmentalmigrants are persons or groups of persons, who, for compelling reasons ofsudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect theirlives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choseto do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country orabroad”.

5. The problem is wider • Economic “pull” and environmental “push” • Katrinahurricane was more than just ameteorological event: the damage it caused was a product of poor disaster planning,consistent underinvestment in the city’s protective levees as well the systematicdestruction of the wetlands in the Mississippi delta that might have lessened the forceof the storm. Labelling it a “climate change event” over-simplifies both its causes and itseffects.

6. Climatedrivers(McLeman) • Climateprocessesareslowonsetchanges such as sea-level rise, salinization of agricultural land, desertification,growing water scarcity and food insecurity. • Climate events, on the other hand, are sudden and dramatic hazards such as monsoonfloods, glacial lake outburst floods, storms, hurricanes and typhoons.

8. Yieldchanges2002/2003

9. The ratio of thestable species (Bakkenes, M. et al. 2004)

13. Millennium DevelopmentGoals • Genderissue (menmigration) • Poverty and Hunger • HIV/AIDS • Environmentalsustainability • Global partnership • Maternal and childhealth

14. Migration • Withinthe country (resettlements, ongoing) • International

15. By 2050 one in every 45 people in the world will havebeen displaced by climate change • This prediction is still very tentative, estimates range between 25 million and 1 billion peopleby2050. (Myers, 2005) • Past environmental migratory movements suggest that being able to migrate awayfrom severe climatic conditions, requires would-bemigrants to have some “social and financial capital” such as existing support networksin the destination area and the funds to be able to move

16. Managingrisks - buying down risks

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