Agriculture, Climate Change and Policy 农业，气候变化和政策

Agriculture, Climate Changeand Policy农业，气候变化和政策 David Howlett, University of Leeds David Howlett 英国利兹大学

My Perspective我的观点 • Now a Researcher 目前是一名研究人员 • Former Policy adviser in DFID 之前是DFID的政策咨询员 • Experience of agriculture in climate change negotiations 参加农业气候变化谈判 • Wanting to use model results for policy 希望将模式结果用于政策

Questions – 问题 • How reliable and useful are climate change and crop models for policy makers and farmers? 气候变化和作物模型对政策制定者和农民有多可靠，多有用？ • Can agriculture adaptation be considered alone, or must it be considered with mitigation of green house gases? 单独考虑农业适应，还是与温室气体减排相结合？

Modelling Issues模式问题 1. Climate models (reliability) 气候模式（可靠性） 2. Crop models (reliability) 作物模式（可靠性） 3. Combining models (reliability) 二者结合的模式（可靠性） 4. Socio-economic impacts (reliability) 社会经济影响（可靠性） 5. Quantifying and reducing uncertainty, building on ESPA project 量化和减少不确定性，建设ESPA项目

Wheat Yields小麦产量 Observations 观测 Simulations 模拟

Precision and Accuracy精准 Accurate 准确 Precise 精确 Accurate + Precise 精准

Wheat predictions小麦预估 Source Challinor et al. (2007)

Why do we need models?为什么我们需要模式？ 中国在干旱方面风险巨大，源自英国BBC新闻– Millions at risk in China Drought BBC News

To Make Decisions 做决策 • We need to know impact on people: 我们需要了解对人类的影响 • Food prices 粮食价格 • Hunger 饥饿 • Nutrition 营养 • Livelihoods 生计 • Economic Growth 经济增长 • Migration 迁移 • Security 安全 • Conflict 冲突

Impact on food prices对粮食价格的影响 Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

Impact on Child Malnutrition对儿童营养不良的影响 Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

Accurate 准确 Precise 精确 Accurate + Precise 精准 Remember uncertainty and the risks if we don’t communicate如果我们不交流，须牢记不确定性和风险

Decisions on adaptation决策和适应 • Research on new crops 新作物研究 • Change practices 改变耕作方式 • Water management 水资源管理 • Migration 迁移 • Migration • 迁移 • Social protection • 社会保护 • Disaster and Risk • 灾难和风险 • Infrastructure • 基础设施

But not just adaptationwe need to mitigate GHG from agriculture and carbon sequestration但是除了适应，我们还需要进行农业减排和碳封存

Agriculture Emissions农业排放 • Direct source of GHG emissions (CH4 N2O) 温室气体的直接排放源（ CH4 N2O ） • Loss of soil carbon 土壤碳流失 • Energy for fertilisers, transport, processing and packaging 化肥，运输，加工和包装所耗费的能源 • Agriculture as a driver of deforestation 农业是森林砍伐的主要原因

Global Problem/ 全球问题 • Globally ~ 30% of total emissions from agriculture 全球~30%的排放来自农业 • 6% of emissions, but if no change in practices then could be 30% of UK’s emissions by 2030 到2030年，如果不改变耕作方式，英国的排放将由6%上升为30% • Per capita emissions low but will go up by 2012 Hongmin estimates +48% on 1994 levels 人均排放低但将会逐渐上升。据Hongmin估计到2012年将比1994年 • Global Research Alliance on Agriculture Green House Gas emissions launched 全球研究联盟对农业温室气体排放展开研究 Agriculture included in climate change negotiations 农业包括在气候变化谈判中

Sequestration封存 • Can sequester 6 GT (88% of agriculture emissions) e.g. 可以封存6 亿吨（农业排放的88%），例如 • Conservation agriculture/保护性耕作 • Rangeland management/牧场管理 • Agroforestry/农林学 • MoA and SAIN projects: MoA 和 SAIN 项目： • Impact of Climate Change and Technologies • 气候变化影响和技术 • Estimates of future GHG & mitigation in China • 中国未来温室气体和减排量估计

Low Carbon Agriculture低碳农业 • Policies that give win-win-wins: “三赢”政策 • Produce food, crops and incomes 产生粮食，作物和收入 • Resilience to climate change 气候变化适应机制 • Reduce emissions & sequester carbon 减排和碳封存 • UK, China and Global Challenge 英国，中国和全球挑战

3 Messages/要点 1. Adaptation planning for agriculture must consider mitigation of GHG and opportunities for carbon sequestration 农业适应规划须考虑温室气体减排和碳封存中存在机遇 2. Understand what information policy makers and farmers need to make their decisions 理解政策制定者和农民需要什么信息进行决策 3. Develop models to provide information at the right time and format, and address uncertainty 在恰当的时间，用合适的方式，开发可提供信息的模式，并解决不确定性

Thank You d.j.b.howlett@leeds.ac.uk +44 113 343 32590 www.africacollege.leeds.ac.uk

Agriculture, Climate Change and Policy 农业，气候变化和政策