1 / 11

Incorporation of TAMDAR into Real-time Local Modeling

This article discusses the integration of TAMDAR data into a real-time local modeling system, including the setup of the modeling system, distribution of model output, subjective impressions of model output, data deprivation experiments, upcoming presentations, and future work.

stephanh
Télécharger la présentation

Incorporation of TAMDAR into Real-time Local Modeling

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Incorporation of TAMDAR into Real-time Local Modeling Tom Hultquist Science & Operations Officer NOAA/National Weather Service Marquette, MI

  2. In a nutshell… • Modeling system setup • Distribution of model output • Subjective impressions of model output • Data deprivation experiments • Upcoming presentations • Future work

  3. Modeling System • FSL’s Local Analysis & Prediction System (LAPS), version 0-24-3 used for data assimilation • Input data from MADIS & AWIPS netCDF files (METAR, RAOB, ACARS, Satellite, Maritime, Profiler, Mesonet, etc…) • LAPS is cycled hourly with WRF-ARW (v 2.0.3.1), with 1-hour WRF-ARW forecast used as first guess in LAPS analysis (and subsequent LAPS analysis used to initialize WRF-ARW) • Boundary conditions obtained from NAM (32 km files) • 2 runs per day (03 UTC & 15 UTC) to 30 hours (hourly cycling restarted every 12 hours, using operational RUC for initial first guess)

  4. Modeling System • Runs performed on dual processor Intel Xeon (3.3 GHz) workstation with 2 Gb RAM • Output from 30-hour simulations is available around 19 UTC (for 15 UTC run) and 07 UTC (for 03 UTC run) • Output from intermediate (cycled) runs and analyses is not currently made available

  5. Modeling System • 15 km grid spacing • 31 vertical layers • 50 mb model top • KF convective scheme • Lin et al. microphysics • RRTM longwave • Goddard shortwave • Noah land surface model • YSU PBL

  6. Model Output • Output from the simulations is currently available at: • http://wseta.mqt.noaa.gov/SOO/wrf_html/wrf.php • http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/data/wrf_html/wrf.php • Output is in the form of RIP4 generated PNG images • Output is hourly, with looping possible through javascript • A variety of basic fields can be displayed as well as a few aviation specific fields and Skew-T diagrams for select locations

  7. Impressions • Unable to perform any meaning objective verification • Model output used somewhat frequently by local staff, but have received only minimal feedback from other offices (general consensus from SOOs is that forecasters are already overwhelmed with model output) • Has been most useful in forecasting lack of convection (when operational models indicated convection) • Has also been useful in wind forecasts around Great Lakes • LAPS balance routine often seems to remove detail/information which could prove useful

  8. Data Deprivation • Sought input from CR SOOs to help identify cases which could prove useful for data deprivation experiments • Unfortunately, have received no recommendations, so only a few (locally identified) cases have be archived thus far • Data from three cases has been archived, and these cases will be re-run identically, with the exception of TAMDAR data (which will be removed from one of the runs) • February 27-28, 2005 – Significant winter storm and lake effect • June 24, 2005 – Non-event where real-time runs appeared to successfully capture overwhelming convective inhibition • August 9, 2005 – Widespread severe weather (bow echo) event in upper Michigan • Currently working on first case (preliminary results encouraging with regard to low track and placement of frontogenetically driven heavy snow band) ; Plan to complete these re-runs by early September • Still interested in hearing about additional cases; A 14-day running archive is kept of all data, so cases can be “saved” within 2 weeks of their occurrence

  9. Sharing of Information • Will present a summary of this TAMDAR modeling effort at the 14th Annual U.S./Canada Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop • Some information (particularly case examples) to be presented at the four NWS forecast offices in Michigan during this fall’s “traveling SOO show” in October

  10. Future Work • Try to get some additional cases identified • Possibly shrink domain and increase resolution of experiment prior to winter to better test performance during lake effect snow events • Update to latest versions of WRF-ARW and LAPS (should be able to get this done soon) • Cease local workstation Eta runs and replace with WRF-ARW (could allow for simultaneous runs with/without TAMDAR to provide real-time comparison)

More Related