MDSS Related Research Needs

1. MDSS Related Research Needs Bill Mahoney National Center For Atmospheric Research (NCAR) MDSS Stakeholder Meeting Boulder, CO 20 October 2005 Courtesy of NASA

2. Weather Prediction Improving 0 to 48 hour weather predictions will result in the largest overall benefit for winter maintenance operations! Improvements are needed in: • Global Models • Mesocale Models • Boundary Layer Physics • Land Surface Modeling • Data assimilation • Satellite data • Radar data • Mobile data • GPS data

3. Atmosphere as a Fluid Global Modeling

4. Satellite Image Weather Model Hurricane Katrina August 2005 Weather Prediction Specific Improvements are needed for predicting: • Precipitation • Amount • Type • Timing (start and end) • Surface humidity • Fog • Road/Bridge frost

5. Soil Moisture Feedback from snowfall needs to be factored into next model run! Volumetric soil moisture at 5 cm below the ground surface simulated by HRLDAS; valid at 1200 UTC 31 May 2002. Land Surface Modeling • Land Surface Data • Soil moisture • Snow cover • Albedo • Vegetation type • Greenness fraction • Soil type • Many others • Feedback important for model initialization – especially for near road surface predictions.

6. IA005 IA003 IA017 IA016 Des Moines, Iowa Road Condition Prediction Remote Sensing NASA and NOAA satellite data: • Road temperature • Land surface character • Temperature • Vegetation type • Greenness fraction • Albedo • Snow cover • Land use • ASTER • AST07 (Surface Reflectance) • AST08 (Surface Temperature) • EROS Data Center Acquired: October 22, 2003 VNIR – 15m

7. Passive surface sensor Sub pavement probe Direct Solar Radiation Need to improve prediction of clouds and solar radiation • Investigate utility of solar radiation measurements made at ESS sites • Develop statistical techniques to adjust modeled insolation values with observed values

8. CRREL Instrumented Site Road Condition Prediction Need to understand behavior of pavement sensors during high sun. Need to study pavement temperature response for various pavement types

9. SSI Ice Camera Vaisala Spectro Yankee Total Precipitation Sensor Lincoln Lab video Image Processing Road Condition Prediction • Need to evaluate new technologies: • Video imagery • Optical based sensors • Laser based sensors • Active sensors (freeze point) • Data fusion to improve performance

10. Use of Real-Time Treatment Data Current MDSS limitation related to utilization of actual treatment data… Need to develop techniques for utilizing actual treatment data (GPS/AVL) Actual Treatments

11. Photo by J. Weaver Bridge/Road Frost • Many unknowns still exist for predicting pavement frost: • Need to study dew point variations at surface and around structures (e.g., bridges) • Need analysis of long wave radiation variations around bridges over water, land, roadways, rail- roads etc. • Need analysis of friction associated with various frost deposition rates and pavement types

12. Swiss freezing rain event Freezing Rain and Drizzle • Freezing rain and drizzle are not detected or predicted well. • Need freezing drizzle sensors and algorithms for ASOS and RWIS • Need to work with radar researchers to improve freezing drizzle detection • Need to improve freezing rain and drizzle physics in weather models

13. Sample product from Iowa DOT Specification MDSS conditional probability of precipitation type graphic Communication of Uncertainty • Given the weather and road condition prediction is not precise, we need to develop methods to convey uncertainty to decision makers. • Need user working group to help define product concepts (text and graphics) for multiple variables.