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THE FUTURE OF SOLAR ENERGY IN LITHUANIA

THE FUTURE OF SOLAR ENERGY IN LITHUANIA. OPTIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT. Vitas Mačiulis Lithuanian Solar Energy Association 19 September, 2013. STATE-OF-PLAY IN THE SOLAR ENERGY SECTOR BEFORE JANU A RY 2013 WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED IN FEBRUARY 2013?

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THE FUTURE OF SOLAR ENERGY IN LITHUANIA

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  1. THE FUTURE OF SOLAR ENERGY IN LITHUANIA OPTIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT Vitas Mačiulis Lithuanian Solar Energy Association 19 September, 2013

  2. STATE-OF-PLAY IN THE SOLAR ENERGY SECTOR BEFORE JANUARY 2013 • WHAT ACTUALLYHAPPENED IN FEBRUARY 2013? • HOW COULD AND SHOULD SOLAR ENERGY DEVELOP IN 2013–2018? 2

  3. 1002 kWh/m2 1089 kWh/m2 1006 kWh/m2 950kWh/m2 1175 kWh/m2 3

  4. 4

  5. FIRST STEPS OF SOLAR ENERGYIN LITHUANIA TARIFF: 1.63 1.44 1.25 1.25/0.69/0.56 LTL/kWh 5

  6. THE BOOM IN SOLAR ENERGY IN 2012 6

  7. WHY DID IT HAPPEN IN 2012? Number of applications to the Ministry of Energy Module prices, EU/W Module prices Number of applications January February March April May June July August September October November December 7

  8. SOLAR ENERGY: LITHUANIA vs OTHER COUNTRIES Installed capacity per capita (in 2011) Countries Germany Czech Republic Belgium Slovakia Austria UK Lithuania - 2020 Strategy Lithuania actual figures in 2013 EU (average of 27 countries) 8

  9. WHAT TO DO? • FEED-IN-TARIFF: INCENTIVIZING TARIFF – NOT TO BE APPLIED TO NEW SOLAR POWER PLANTS • INTRODUCTION OF NET METERING: TWO-WAY ACCOUNTING SYSTEM 9

  10. UNDERSTANDING NET METERING • ELECTRICITY PRODUCED ONLY FOR OWN NEEDS; • PRODUCTION SURPLUS IS FED BACK INTO THE GRID: • DAYTIME SURPLUS IS CONSUMED IN THE EVENING; • SUMMER SUPRLUS IS CONSUMED IN WINTER; • GRID OPERATOR BECOMES A VIRTUAL BATTERY; • AT THE END OF A YEAR A BALANCE IS CALCULATED AND THE DIFFERENCE IS PAIDOUT, USUALLY BY PRODUCER TO OPERATOR. 10

  11. PROPOSED RESTRICTIONS OF NET METERING • INSTALLED SOLAR CAPACITY SHOULD NOT EXCEED MAXIMUM PERMISSIBLE CONSUMPTION CAPACITY (THAT OF POWER SUPPLY CONNECTION); • GENERATED SOLAR ENERGY DOES NOT EXCEED PREDICTED CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY; • SOLAR POWER IS PRODUCED ONLY IN THE PLACE OF CONSUMPTION: i. e. on the building or in the land plot. 11

  12. COMMENTS • INSTALLED CAPACITY DOES NOT EXCEED CONSUMPTION CAPACITY: • INSTALLED CAPACITY TO COMPANIES EQUALS TO THEIR CONSUMPTION CAPACITY; • INSTALLED CAPACITY TO HOUSEHOLDS EQUALS TO CAPACITY RECEIVED FROM THE GRID; • PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF A SOLAR POWER PLANT EQUALS TO A TOTAL POWER OF POWER CONVERTERS (BUT NOT A TOTAL OF MODULE POWER); • THRESHOLD CAPACITY OF FUSES ENSURES THAT THE ABOVE RESTRICTIONS ARE OBSERVED. 12

  13. GENERATED POWER DOES NOT EXCEED CONSUMED POWER: • ENERGY METERING – A TWO-WAY METERING DEVICE; • PAYMENT– AT THE END OF A CALENDAR YEAR; • SURPLUS SUPPLIED BY THE PRODUCER – FOR A MARKET PRICE. 13

  14. SOLAR POWER PRODUCTION IN THE PLACE OF CONSUMPTION: • ROOFS OR WALLS OF THE BUILDINGS THAT HAVE SUPPLY CONNECTION; • ONLY AREAS WHERE POWER CONSUMERS HAVE BEEN INSTALLED AND THAT ARE LAWFULLY USED BY THE PRODUCER. 14

  15. ADVANTAGES OF NET METERING • THE MONEY OF OTHER POWER CONSUMERS WILL NOT BE USED (THE MONEY WILL NOT BE REDISTRIBUTED VIA PUBLIC SERVICE OBLIGATIONS (POS); • NO INVESTMENTS BY THE OPERATOR WILL BE NECESSARY TO CONNECT A SOLAR PLANT TO A GRID; • UNRESOLVED: BALANCING COSTS (FOR UNITS OF UP TO 10 kW CAPACITY – THERE SHOULD BE NONE). 15

  16. ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF SOLAR POWER PLANTS(EXAMPLE FOR 10 Kw) • INVESTMENTS – LTL50,000; • SOURCE OF INVESTMENTS – OWN FUNDS; • ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION – 950 kWh/kW; • DEGRADATION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES: • IN 10 YEARS – 90 % OF CAPACITY; • IN 20 YEARS – 80 % OF CAPACITY. • RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE – 52 ct/kWh; • PREDICTED GROWTH OF ELECTRICITY PRICE – 3 % A YEAR. 16

  17. CASH FLOWS OF A 10 kW SOLAR POWER PLANT 17

  18. RENTABILITY OPTIONS FOR SOLAR POWER PLANTS Investments, LTL/kW Support, LTL Year 18

  19. PREDICTIONS FOR SOLAR POWER PLANT CONSTRUCTION IN 2014-2018 19

  20. EXPECTED RESULTS OF SOLAR POWER PLANT DEVELOPMENT IN 2018 OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO INDICATOR Installedcapacity, MW Per capita, W Annual production of solar electricity, GWh Share of solar electricity in the total consumption of electricity, %

  21. PROPOSALS FOR INTRODUCTION OF NET METERING • AMENDMENT OF THE LAW ON NUCLEAR POWER STATION IN THE AUTUMN SESSION OF THE PARLIAMENT IN 2013 – BY 15 NOVEMBER • MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND LESTO PREPARE BYLAWS – BY 15 DECEMBER 2013 • MINISTRY OF ENERGY EARMARKS FUNDING FROM 2014-2016 PROGRAMMING PERIOD – BY 31 DECEMBER 2014 AMOUNT OF SUPPORT – 2,000 LTL/kW; • LAUNCH OF NET METERING – 01/01/2014 21

  22. THE RESULT:SOLAR ENERGY IN LITHUANIABACK IN 2014!

  23. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! ANY QUESTIONS? For more information: Vitas Mačiulis,8 698 48934 vitas.maciulis@gmail.com 23

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